~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[FearlessF]

I wish, but it turned out OK. Pounding Miami into submission on their home field was very rewarding.

both Big Reds understand this

[mcwterps1]

I was just making a comment about the ticky-tack fouls the refs were calling against are only big man.

This wasn't a conspiracy post.

As for Wisconsin, I believe it was supposed to go to whoever had the greatest chance of making the playoffs.

Ohio state was the only team being considered as a razor-thin comparison versus Alabama. 

Wisconsin wasn't really in the mix according to the committee.

So, naturally, they had to make the game interesting between Ohio State and Wisconsin with Ohio State edging them out.

Got it? Keep up. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

OSU would have had a better chance at making the playoffs with another 59-0 vs a narrow victory. 

An undefeated Wisconsin would have been a lock for the playoffs. 

The outcome of the Big Ten Ccg was the worst possible scenario, with regards to getting a team into the playoffs. 

[847badgerfan]

The UW/OSU game got interesting because the UW defense made adjustments after the half and locked OSU down. Then Hornibrook and Co. started to make some plays. It had nothing to do with officiating.

And, yes, Wisconsin was in, probably as the #3 or #4, had they beat OSU. They went into the weekend as the #4.

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU would have had a better chance at making the playoffs with another 59-0 vs a narrow victory.

An undefeated Wisconsin would have been a lock for the playoffs.

The outcome of the Big Ten Ccg was the worst possible scenario, with regards to getting a team into the playoffs.

Exactly.  It was obvious at the time that a Wisconsin victory would have gotten them in.  Based on the committee's infamous "very little separation" comment it appeared that it didn't matter because the winner was in either way.  In retrospect there were only two ways for a B1G team to get in:

• A Wisconsin victory (margin is irrelevant, even a 1 point win in OT would have done it), or
• A massive Ohio State blowout victory on the order of Ohio State's 59-0 win that got them in back in 2014.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Isn't this thread supposed to be about Basketball?

[FearlessF]

Nebrasketball doesn't play until Tuesday

[medinabuckeye1]

Northwestern's road win over Wisconsin was an upset so we have new projections:

• 17-1 Purdue
• 16-2 Michigan State
• 14-4 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over UNL based on H2H, no game in Lincoln)
• 14-4 Nebraska
• 10-8 Penn State (wins tiebreaker over M based on H2H, no game in Ann Arbor)
• 10-8 Michigan
• 8-10 Maryland (wins tiebreaker over UMD based on record against the three 5-13 teams)*
• 8-10 Northwestern
• 7-11 Indiana
• 5-13 Rutgers (first in H2H2H tiebreaker with IA and UW, 2-0, no games in Madison or Iowa City)
• 5-13 Iowa (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with RU and UW, 1-1)
• 5-13 Wisconsin (last in H2H2H tiebreaker with RU and IA, 0-2, no home games)
• 4-14 Minnesota
• 3-15 Illinois

Based on these projections the match-ups in the BTT at MSG in NYC would be:
Wednesday:

• #11 Iowa vs #14 Illinois, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Wisconsin vs #13 Minnesota, 5:30pm, BTN

Thursday:

• #5 Penn State vs UW/MN, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Michigan vs IA/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Rutgers, 9pm, BTN
• #8 Northwestern vs #9 Indiana, noon, BTN

Friday:

• #1 Purdue vs NU/IU, noon, BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs UMD/RU, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs M/IA/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Nebraska vs PSU/UW/MN, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday:

• PU/NU/IU vs UNL/PSU/UW/MN, 2pm, CBS
• MSU/UMD/RU vs tOSU/M/IA/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Sunday:

• PU/NU/IU/UNL/PSU/UW/MN vs MSU/UMD/RU/tOSU/M/IA/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

*Here is the tiebreaker for Maryland/Northwestern, it is one of the most complicated I have ever encountered:

• H2H, this does not help because they play twice, home-and-home.  Neither game has been played yet, but we project the home team to win both.  
• Record against the 17-1 team:  Both are 0-season.  
• Record against the 16-2 team:  Both are 0-season.  
• Record against the 14-4 teams:  Both are 0-season (in theory Maryland would win home games against either the Buckeyes or the Cornhuskers but they do not have a home game against either).  
• Record against the 10-8 teams:  Both teams play both PSU and M twice each and project to go 2-2.  
• Record against the 7-11 team:  Both are 0-season (neither has a home game with IU and both already lost in Bloomington).  
• Record against the 5-13 teams:  Maryland does not have road games against any of the three so projects to go 3-0.  Northwestern did win at Wisconsin but plays IA and RU on the road only and projects to lose both games.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at the Bubble:

I'm not willing to call even Purdue a lock just yet.  Please note here that I am fanatically literal with the terms "lock" and "needs to win BTT".  Thus, I wouldn't call Purdue a lock just yet because if they lost their last seven scheduled games then got bounced in their first game of the BTT that would be an eight game losing streak.  A 2-8 "last 10" coupled with what would be some dreadfully bad losses could potentially keep Purdue out so at this point I do not yet believe that the B1G has any "locks".  

That said, it is pretty clear that barring a stupendous collapse the Boilermakers, Buckeyes, and Spartans will all be safely locked into the NCAA Tournament long before we get to the BTT at MSG in NYC.  

Similarly I believe that all of the B1G teams with eight or more losses are in or very close to the "need to win BTT" category.  In theory one of them could finish on a seven or eight game winning streak then go 2-1 in the BTT but that still probably wouldn't be enough so Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers each probably need to win the BTT to make it to the NCAA Tournament.  

That leaves six teams:
Nebraska 8-4:
The Cornhuskers have won three in a row and are now the very last team listed in Lunardi's "Next Four Out" so they are on the fringe of the bubble.  Their major defect is a critical shortage of quality wins (discussed upthread).  Winning out would get them to 14-4 but anything short of that could be problematic.  They only play one more quality opponent (Maryland at home).  They really need the quality win.  Any other loss would clearly be a "bad loss" and with their lack of quality wins the Cornhuskers probably can't afford any of those.  

Michigan 7-4:
The Wolverines are an 8-seed in Lunardi's latest projections.  We project them to go 3-4 over their last seven to finish 10-8.  That would be seriously problematic but the good news is that they can probably do better than projected.  The projected wins are home games against Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio State.  IMHO, the only one of those in which a loss is plausible is Ohio State.  Their projected losses are road games against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Maryland.  I believe that Michigan has about a 50/50 chance to win each of the first three.  Michigan should be in, but they do not have a lot of margin for error.  

Penn State 5-6:
Penn State's various rankings (RPI, BPI, etc) are atrocious.  I am only including them here because  if they somehow managed to put everything together and finish on a seven game winning streak they'd be at least a bubble team heading to NYC.  The problem is that anything less than that would probably relegate them to "need to win BTT" territory.  They absolutely have to win their next three (vsIA, vsUMD, @IL).  If they do that, then it will at least be interesting when hey head into a week where they host the Buckeyes (who will likely be looking for revenge) then travel to West Lafayette.  

Indiana 5-6:
Like Penn State, the Hoosiers various rankings are atrocious.  However, they have remaining home games against the Spartans and Buckeyes so finishing on a seven game winning streak would include some quality wins.  It obviously isn't likely.  The Hoosiers have lost three straight and host the Spartans tomorrow.  If they lose that, they are probably done.  

Northwestern 5-6:
The Wildcats have won three of their last four including upset road wins in Minneapolis and Madison.  They can't let up now.  Much like the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers, they probably need to win out.  They currently have a grand total of ZERO wins over RPI top-100 teams.  Their last seven games include four such games (vsM, vsMSU, Maryland2x).  Winning out would include those four quality wins.  Anything less would be problematic.  

Maryland 4-7:  The good news for the Terrapins is that their only bad loss was at Indiana.  Other than that, the teams they lost to are currently #8(twice), #23, #24(twice), #34, #42, and #51.  The bad news is that the Terrapins only have two wins over RPI top-100 teams and both were way back in mid-November.  Furthermore, one of them was Bucknell which is currently #89 so there is no guarantee that will even hold up.  Their rankings aren't nearly as bad as PSU/IU/NU though so they could get there.  They need to win out.  That isn't impossible.  We actually project them to go 4-3 in their last seven with losses at PSU, at UNL, and at NU.  In theory all of those games and their home games (UW, NU, RU, M) are winnable.  The problem is that, at this point, the Terrapins have no margin for error.  They need to win them all.  

[ELA]

Wow, Kansas loses at home to Oklahoma State, but the big one is Duke losing to St. John's, who is 0-11 in the Big East.  Good for Chris Mullins

[mcwterps1]

To help solidify the excuse machine, it was reported that Ceko will not be playing for quite some time, due to a "bruised heel".

Great news for Wisconsin fans. 

[TyphonInc]

I'ma going to say Minney let one slip away in Ann Arbor today. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue having trouble. 8:22 to go and Purdue is up only 55-52.

[ELA]

Need to keep IU off the line.  If not for FTs, I'm not sure they'd have double digits at the half.