Looking at the Bubble:
I'm not willing to call even Purdue a lock just yet. Please note here that I am fanatically literal with the terms "lock" and "needs to win BTT". Thus, I wouldn't call Purdue a lock just yet because if they lost their last seven scheduled games then got bounced in their first game of the BTT that would be an eight game losing streak. A 2-8 "last 10" coupled with what would be some dreadfully bad losses could potentially keep Purdue out so at this point I do not yet believe that the B1G has any "locks".
That said, it is pretty clear that barring a stupendous collapse the Boilermakers, Buckeyes, and Spartans will all be safely locked into the NCAA Tournament long before we get to the BTT at MSG in NYC.
Similarly I believe that all of the B1G teams with eight or more losses are in or very close to the "need to win BTT" category. In theory one of them could finish on a seven or eight game winning streak then go 2-1 in the BTT but that still probably wouldn't be enough so Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers each probably need to win the BTT to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
That leaves six teams:
Nebraska 8-4:
The Cornhuskers have won three in a row and are now the very last team listed in Lunardi's "Next Four Out" so they are on the fringe of the bubble. Their major defect is a critical shortage of quality wins (discussed upthread). Winning out would get them to 14-4 but anything short of that could be problematic. They only play one more quality opponent (Maryland at home). They really need the quality win. Any other loss would clearly be a "bad loss" and with their lack of quality wins the Cornhuskers probably can't afford any of those.
Michigan 7-4:
The Wolverines are an 8-seed in Lunardi's latest projections. We project them to go 3-4 over their last seven to finish 10-8. That would be seriously problematic but the good news is that they can probably do better than projected. The projected wins are home games against Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio State. IMHO, the only one of those in which a loss is plausible is Ohio State. Their projected losses are road games against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Maryland. I believe that Michigan has about a 50/50 chance to win each of the first three. Michigan should be in, but they do not have a lot of margin for error.
Penn State 5-6:
Penn State's various rankings (RPI, BPI, etc) are atrocious. I am only including them here because if they somehow managed to put everything together and finish on a seven game winning streak they'd be at least a bubble team heading to NYC. The problem is that anything less than that would probably relegate them to "need to win BTT" territory. They absolutely have to win their next three (vsIA, vsUMD, @IL). If they do that, then it will at least be interesting when hey head into a week where they host the Buckeyes (who will likely be looking for revenge) then travel to West Lafayette.
Indiana 5-6:
Like Penn State, the Hoosiers various rankings are atrocious. However, they have remaining home games against the Spartans and Buckeyes so finishing on a seven game winning streak would include some quality wins. It obviously isn't likely. The Hoosiers have lost three straight and host the Spartans tomorrow. If they lose that, they are probably done.
Northwestern 5-6:
The Wildcats have won three of their last four including upset road wins in Minneapolis and Madison. They can't let up now. Much like the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers, they probably need to win out. They currently have a grand total of ZERO wins over RPI top-100 teams. Their last seven games include four such games (vsM, vsMSU, Maryland2x). Winning out would include those four quality wins. Anything less would be problematic.
Maryland 4-7: The good news for the Terrapins is that their only bad loss was at Indiana. Other than that, the teams they lost to are currently #8(twice), #23, #24(twice), #34, #42, and #51. The bad news is that the Terrapins only have two wins over RPI top-100 teams and both were way back in mid-November. Furthermore, one of them was Bucknell which is currently #89 so there is no guarantee that will even hold up. Their rankings aren't nearly as bad as PSU/IU/NU though so they could get there. They need to win out. That isn't impossible. We actually project them to go 4-3 in their last seven with losses at PSU, at UNL, and at NU. In theory all of those games and their home games (UW, NU, RU, M) are winnable. The problem is that, at this point, the Terrapins have no margin for error. They need to win them all.
