~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think you're reading it like Painter is a bad coach who will never get there.  That's not the point.  The point is that navigating 6 games through the NCAA tournament is a difficult feat, and that maybe there is something to getting almost all the way there where you learn what needs to be tweaked.  That it would be the first time in over three decades a coach like Painter won a national title, having never gotten even halfway there before despite being in place for a while.  That maybe he needs to take a Final Four heartbreak before he wins one.

A lot of great coaches have won their first (and/or only) national titles over the past 34 years...John Thompson, Rollie Massimino, Denny Crum, Larry Brown, Tark, Coach K, Nolan Richardson, Rick Pitino, Lute Olsen, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo, Gary Williams, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Billy Donovan, Bill Self, John Calipari, Jay Wright.

Not one of them did it the first time they made it past the Sweet 16.

Rollie, Calhoun and Self were the only three that did it on their first trip to the final weekend.

True, but Fisher, Smith, and Ollie did it. They were dropped into talented teams and clearly handled their business.
I'm not expecting Painter to win the National Championship this year. I think he's an excellent coach, and this is an excellent team, but to win the whole thing takes more than that. It takes luck and great coaching and getting hot at the right time. 
If you're a betting man, Purdue right now is 16:1 to win the whole thing according to Vegas Insider. So nobody else is saying Painter's going to win it.
This year I think Purdue fan expectations are that [barring injury or other major calamity] Painter damn well better exceed a Sweet 16. Not to do so will REALLY bother Purdue fans. 
No Purdue fan is expecting a National Championship. Purdue fans will be happy with an Elite Eight, and ELATED with a Final Four. You get beyond that and we're playing with house money. Get there and hope things fall our way. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I get that and I think we are on the same page. What do you feel the expectation for Purdue and Ohio State (in # of wins)?
My guess at the answers to that is around 13-14 for PU and around 5-6 for Ohio State.
That means that Ohio State is already 3-4 games over expectations and Purdue can do no better than 4-5 games over expectations.

No argument there. I think 14-4 was a reasonable preseason Purdue expectation. I didn't follow preseason OSU expectations, but with how they struggled OOC, I definitely think 5-6 wins probably wasn't all that far off. Especially when people thought the conference would be a little tougher.
So yes, Holtmann will by FAR exceed expectations more than Painter possibly could if you're just counting "number of wins above expectation". But something like 18-0 is a statement in a different way. Nobody has done it in 42 years. That might get some attention.
Still, I think Holtmann is the odds-on favorite, and should be. It'll take something extraordinary at this point for him not to win it. All we're debating is what constitutes "extraordinary enough".  

[ohio1317]

If Purdue finishes 18-0, I'm OK with coach of the year going there.  I think it's an argument, but don't think that's the bad choice and would probably go with Painter there too.  Lose 1 or 2 though and I think Holtman gets it in anything except a total collapse.

[847badgerfan]

If Wisconsin doesn't wake up, they aren't even going to make the NIT.

They are awake. They just aren't good.

[medinabuckeye1]

No argument there. I think 14-4 was a reasonable preseason Purdue expectation. I didn't follow preseason OSU expectations, but with how they struggled OOC, I definitely think 5-6 wins probably wasn't all that far off. Especially when people thought the conference would be a little tougher.
So yes, Holtmann will by FAR exceed expectations more than Painter possibly could if you're just counting "number of wins above expectation". But something like 18-0 is a statement in a different way. Nobody has done it in 42 years. That might get some attention.
Still, I think Holtmann is the odds-on favorite, and should be. It'll take something extraordinary at this point for him not to win it. All we're debating is what constitutes "extraordinary enough".  

Maybe instead of looking only at # of wins above expectation we should instead or also consider % of expected losses converted to wins.  
My thinking here is that it is harder and more impressive to get four wins more than expected if your expectation is 10-8 than it is if your expectation is 2-16.  That tends to be true in most things.  Example:  Think about drag racing.  If the car that you drive to work every day can do a 1/4 mile in 19 seconds I could probably trim two seconds off of that for >$1,000 in a day or two.  On the other hand, if you have a 12 second car and you want to make it into a 10 second car you are probably going to have to write some REALLY big checks.  
So back to BB:  If we just assume (for purposes of this discussion) that Purdue was expected to win 14 and Ohio State was expected to win six then if it is measured simply in "wins over expectation" then Painter has almost no chance.  The best he can do is four games over expectation and Holtmann is already three games over expectation.  However, if we look at it as % of expected losses converted to wins then we get:
For Ohio State:

Wins	%
9	25.00%
10	33.33%
11	41.67%
12	50.00%
13	58.33%
14	66.67%
15	75.00%
16	83.33%
17	91.67%
18	100.00%

For Purdue:

Wins	%
14	0.00%
15	25.00%
16	50.00%
17	75.00%
18	100.00%

So based on that:

• If Purdue goes 15-3, Holtmann needs 10 or more wins.  
• If Purdue goes 16-2, Holtmann needs 13 or more wins.  
• If Purdue goes 17-1, Holtmann needs 16 or more wins.  
• If Purdue goes 18-0, Holtmann needs 18 wins.  

FWIW:  I do not think this is it exactly.  I think it is more of a balance between the two.  Holtmann is almost certainly going to have more "wins over expectation" than Painter because he is already at three and Painter can only possibly get to four.  On the other hand, if Purdue finishes with 17 or more wins then there is a pretty good chance that Painter will finish with a higher percentage of expected losses converted to wins.  My rough thinking is that for Painter to win the award he has to be substantially better than Holtmann in percentage of losses converted in order to overcome the fact that he will be substantially behind in wins over expectation.  

I also still think that you have a point on the undefeated thing.  Going undefeated is a big deal and in this race it is something of a trump card.  As I said before, I think that the four game difference between 18-0 and 14-4 is MUCH bigger than the four game difference between 17-1 and 13-5.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated projections:

For the time being the Tiers are (with upset +/-):

• Purdue, MSU (-1)
• Ohio State (+1*)
• Michigan (+1), Maryland, Minnesota (-2*), Penn State (-2)
• Nebraska (+1), Wisconsin (+1), Indiana (+1), Northwestern
• Iowa (+1), Rutgers, Illinois (-1)

The upsets so far have been:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
4-Dec	UW	@	PSU
2-Jan	UNL	@	NU
6-Jan	IU	@	MN
11-Jan	IA	@	ILL
13-Jan	M	@	MSU
15-Jan	MN	@	PSU
20-Jan	tOSU	MSG*	MN
23-Jan	NU	@	MN

* Note that tOSU's win over MN shows up as an upset here because the game it replaced was a MN home game but it shouldn't be viewed as a credit to tOSU or a demerit to MN because it was actually played at a neutral location.  

Here are the updated projections:

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff	+Var	-Var	Var	Conf-W	Conf-L	OOC-W	OOC-L	ProjT-W	ProjT-L
Purdue	UNL	NU	tOSU	PSU	ILL	IU	IOWA	MSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021	0	0	0	17	1	11	2	28	3
MSU	M	UNL	PSU	PU	IOWA	MN	NU	tOSU	24	2	7	1	17	1	0.923	0.944	0.021	0	(1)	(1)	16	2	12	1	28	3
tOSU	MSU	UMD	UNL	ILL	UW	NU	MN	PU	20	6	6	2	14	4	0.769	0.778	0.009	1	0	1	15	3	9	4	24	7
M	ILL	IU	MN	RU	MSU	UNL	PSU	UW	14	12	5	3	9	9	0.538	0.500	(0.038)	1	0	1	10	8	11	2	21	10
PSU	M	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	MSU	PU	14	12	3	5	11	7	0.538	0.611	0.073	0	(2)	(2)	9	9	10	3	19	12
UMD	IOWA	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	UNL	tOSU	14	12	6	2	8	10	0.538	0.444	(0.094)	0	0	0	8	10	11	2	19	12
Minny	ILL	MSU	tOSU	RU	UMD	M	PSU	UW	14	12	6	2	8	10	0.538	0.444	(0.094)	1	(3)	(2)	6	12	11	2	17	14
UNL	IU	IOWA	UMD	M	MSU	NU	tOSU	PU	10	16	1	7	9	9	0.385	0.500	0.115	1	0	1	10	8	9	4	19	12
UW	IU	M	MN	tOSU	IOWA	UMD	PSU	RU	10	16	4	4	6	12	0.385	0.333	(0.051)	1	0	1	7	11	7	6	14	17
IU	UMD	NU	PSU	PU	M	UNL	RU	UW	10	16	4	4	6	12	0.385	0.333	(0.051)	1	0	1	7	11	7	5	14	16
NU	ILL	MSU	UNL	tOSU	IU	IOWA	PU	RU	10	16	3	5	7	11	0.385	0.389	0.004	1	(1)	0	7	11	9	4	16	15
RU	IU	IOWA	NU	UW	UMD	M	MN	PSU	6	20	0	8	6	12	0.231	0.333	0.103	0	0	0	6	12	10	3	16	15
ILL	IOWA	UMD	PSU	PU	M	MN	NU	tOSU	6	20	1	7	5	13	0.231	0.278	0.047	0	(1)	(1)	4	14	10	3	14	17
Iowa	MSU	NU	PU	UW	IL	UMD	UNL	RU	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)	1	0	1	4	14	9	4	13	18

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on the above projections the BTT seeds would be:

• 17-1 Purdue
• 16-2 Michigan State
• 15-3 Ohio State
• 10-8 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker with M based on H2H, no game in Ann Arbor)
• 10-8 Michigan
• 9-9 Penn State
• 8-10 Maryland
• 7-11 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker with IU and NU based on H2H2H, 2-1)
• 7-11 Indiana (second in tiebreaker with UW and NU based on H2H2H, 1-1)
• 7-11 Northwestern (last in tiebreaker with UW and IU based on H2H2H, 1-2)
• 6-12 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker with RU based on H2H, no game in Picastaway)
• 6-12 Rutgers
• 4-14 Iowa (wins tiebreaker with ILL based on H2H, won at Illinois)
• 4-14 Illinois

The match-ups in the BTT at MSG in NYC would be:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Minnesota vs #14 Illinois, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Iowa, 5:30pm, BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Michigan vs RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Penn State vs MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Northwestern, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Indiana, noon, BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Purdue vs UW/IU, noon, BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs UMD/NU, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs PSU/MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Nebraska vs M/RU/IA, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• PU/UW/IU vs UNL/M/RU/IA, 2pm, CBS
• MSU/UMD/NU vs tOSU/PSU/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• PU/UW/IU/UNL/M/RU/IA vs MSU/UMD/NU/tOSU/PSU/MN/IL, 4:30 pm, CBS

[Brutus Buckeye]

OSU-Michigan rubber match in the Big Ten Ccg? 

[medinabuckeye1]

In the worldwide leader's latest bracketology we are down to a 4-bid league.  Maryland has dropped from last four in to first four out.  We have a one seed (PU), a two seed (MSU), a three seed (tOSU), and an eight seed (M).  

[ELA]

In the worldwide leader's latest bracketology we are down to a 4-bid league.  Maryland has dropped from last four in to first four out.  We have a one seed (PU), a two seed (MSU), a three seed (tOSU), and an eight seed (M).  

And he has MSU and OSU higher than most.

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at the likely Bubble-teams:
Maryland:
The Terrapins were in most brackets until recently.  Now they are below .500 in the league and they have lost three of their last four along with four of their last six.  IMHO, their next two games are key.  They already lost at MSU and at home to PU and their next two games are the inverse.  They host MSU on Sunday then travel to PU next Wednesday.  We project that they will lose both and ultimately finish 8-10. 

After these two games their other remaining projected losses are @PSU, @UNL, and @NU.  IMHO, they need to win one of the next two because even if they won the other three, that would only get them to 11-7 and I do not think that is enough in this year's B1G.  

Nebraska:
It has been discussed, but their schedule is problematic.  We all know that the B1G is down this year but on top of that the Cornhuskers only play the best five teams once each.  They are almost done with those games at 1-3 with a home win over Michigan and road losses to PU, MSU, and tOSU.  Their only remaining game against a potential tournament team before the BTT at MSG in NYC is a home game against Maryland in mid-February.  

Nebraska is currently 5-4 and we project them to go 5-4 in the second half of their B1G schedule and finish 10-8.  That is not going to be enough.  Their four projected losses are:

• @RU, tonight
• @UW, 1/29
• @MN, 2/6
• @ILL, 2/18

To be a serious bubble team I think the Cornhuskers are going to have to win at least two of those and the easiest ones are probably the first (tonight against RU) and last (at Illinois on 2/18).  

[ELA]

I think their Sunday home game against MSU is their must win.  It's a home game, on a long 6 day rest, playing an MSU team that already struggles on the road, travelling in on 1 day rest.  If they are going to pull a big win, that is about as perfect a setup as you can ask for.  It also depends on where the fans are at by that point.  When MSU went in there a couple years ago it was an absolute hive.  Last year, not so much.

[Brutus Buckeye]

.

Xavier, Ohio State, Cincinnati and Dayton in all-Ohio college hoops event?
.
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/xavier/2017/10/26/xavier-ohio-state-uc-and-dayton-all-ohio-college-hoops-event-chris-mack-listening/805013001/

You can count Xavier head coach Chris Mack as an intrigued and willing party on the subject of getting Ohio's premier men's basketball programs together for a non-conference tournament or event. 
Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann said several times in recent days he'd like to see the major Ohio men's programs – OSU, Xavier, Dayton and the University of Cincinnati – collaborate on a project similar to the Crossroads Classic in Indiana.
Asked Thursday by The Enquirer about the prospect of such a collaboration, Mack said he told Holtmann in July that Xavier would be interested. 
.

[medinabuckeye1]

Brutus,
You do realize that story is from October, right?  As a Buckeye fan, I think it would not be good for Ohio State.