~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[FearlessF]

I'm still not sure what to think of this years UNL team.   Over the last couple of years, each time I feel like they are turning a corner, they take a step back.   This year's team seems to be taking small steps towards that corner without major glitches.  I'm hopeful, but I still can't trust.  

I haven't even been hopeful the past couple seasons
was hopeful when Miles was hired

[medinabuckeye1]

The problem is that Wisconsin has absolutely no good OOC wins.  Their best win is what?......Western Kentucky?  Even if they manage to get two upset wins over MSU and Purdue at home, that puts them at 16-15 with only 3 top 50 wins (assuming they beat Michigan at home and Michigan maintains their current ranking level).  They would probably still need at least 3 more wins in the BTT to even get on the bubble.
That's a pretty tall order.

In the tier system we currently project them to finish 14-17 so you are right, wins over PU and MSU at home would only get them to 16-15 and that probably isn't enough without winning the BTT.  
I believe that 14 is the most losses ever for an at-large team so I was thinking that they would need to get to at least 18-13 and then a decent run in the BTT.  
To get there they would need to win all of their projected wins plus four of their projected losses.  Here are some possibilities:

• @ RU, Friday:  I have this as a projected loss, but I'm not so sure about that.  
• @ IA, 1/23:  Iowa has looked generally terrible so this wouldn't be impossible.  
• @ ILL, 2/8:  I would certainly pick Illinois to win if this were played tomorrow but if UW improves enough . . .
• v PU, 2/15:  Definitely a long shot.  
• @ NU, 2/22:  The way Northwestern looks, this could happen.  
• v MSU, 2/25:  This is the last game of the regular season so the hope here is based on hope for improvement.  

They have other projected losses that they could flip but those are the last four and two in January that look reasonably winnable.  

It is a very tall order because they need no upset losses and four of those six to flip to wins.  They have almost zero margin for error.  

[mcwterps1]

I wholeheartedly believe, with the depth loss, and this idiotic schedule, we'll finish in the bottom 1/4 of the league. 

Any higher, and I'd be surprised. 

I don't see us making the tournament, unless the rest of the B1G is just that bad. 

I don't see it, because every team we play, has the best nights of their careers....(looking at you Mathias). 

[MarqHusker]

I know this is B1g board and all, but Marquette's Markus Howard set a school record w 52 pts, 11 3s tonight vs the Friars.  I think the old record was 44 by Tony Smith vs Wisconsin in 90 and Mike Moran about 60 yrs ago vs Creighton.

[medinabuckeye1]

No surprises tonight, projections remain unchanged. 

[ELA]

Not sure if this counts as college or pro, or if we already have a Lithuanian basketball thread, but ESPN sent Jeff Goodman to Lithuania to cover the Ball brothers' first PRACTICE.

I think in the end he may end up costing them money, because the youngest (who was a the best of the 3 IIRC) may now never see the NBA, but for now Lavar's "marketing" seems to be paying off.

[Entropy]

Not sure if this counts as college or pro, or if we already have a Lithuanian basketball thread, but ESPN sent Jeff Goodman to Lithuania to cover the Ball brothers' first PRACTICE.

I think in the end he may end up costing them money, because the youngest (who was a the best of the 3 IIRC) may now never see the NBA, but for now Lavar's "marketing" seems to be paying off.

Even TMZ thinks ESPN is losing credibility..... jeeze..

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm excited for tonight's Ohio State/Iowa game.  In the tiers we project Ohio State to win but the wiseguys in Vegas say "Iowa -1" and they tend to know what they are talking about.  

It is WAY too early in the season to call this a "must win", but we currently project Ohio State to finish 12-6/21-10 so they don't have much room for error.  If the Buckeyes lose this one, they'll likely need to win a tougher game later this season to make up for it.  

Additionally, a win here by the Buckeyes would make Sunday's game against the Spartans in Columbus very interesting.  The #1 Spartans are 2-0 and favored by 13.5 tonight against Maryland so they are likely to come into Columbus still #1 and a half game behind Purdue (hosts Nebraska on Saturday) in the B1G.  If the Buckeyes win in Iowa City then they will be tied with MSU a half game behind the Boilermakers when the MSU/tOSU game tips off on Sunday afternoon.  

I'm not saying that the Buckeyes have a realistic shot at upsetting the Spartans, just that I've enjoyed seeing my team atop the B1G standings for the last month and the MSU/tOSU game is a lot more fun/interesting if it is for the lead in the conference.  

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/BarstoolBigCat/status/948738891267354629

[medinabuckeye1]

To somewhat explain what I was getting at in my last post:

The Buckeyes are currently 2-0/11-4 with 16 conference games to go.  IMHO, they need to get to about 12-6/21-10 so they need to go at least 10-6 in their 16 remaining games.  Here are their 16 remaining games roughly in order of what I think are most likely wins to least likely wins:

• v RU, 2/20
• v IU, 1/30
• v IA, 2/10
• v UNL, 1/22
• v ILL, 2/4
• @ RU, 1/14
• @ IU, 2/23
• v PSU, 1/25
• @ IA, 1/4
• v UMD, 1/11
• @ NU, 1/17 
• v MN, 1/20 (neutral site at MSG)
• @ PSU, 2/15 
• @ M, 2/18 
• v MSU, 1/7
• @ PU, 2/7

So basically, in order to make the tournament, the Buckeyes need to win the first 10 listed games.  In theory they could lose the first six and win the bottom ten but that is obviously pretty unlikely.  On a practical level they should not lose any of the first seven and they are extremely unlikely to win any of the bottom three.  They may suffer or pull off an upset here or there but as long as those offset it is pretty much a wash.  

The most interesting games of the season, to me, are the ones that I bolded from #8 through #13 because those are games where I feel like anything could happen.  I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Buckeyes go anywhere from 5-1 to 1-5 in those games and that is a huge difference because, assuming that the team wins the first seven and loses the last three that is the difference between:

• 14-4/23-8, obvious NCAA lock, probable #3 seed in MSG, or
• 10-8/19-12, precarious bubble team, probably playing on Thursday in MSG and needing a major run.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

Unlike football, OSU remains undefeated in Big Ten play by defeating Iowa on the road. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Buckeyes are 3-0 and tied with Purdue for first in the B1G!

[mcwterps1]

K Jr has the game in hand with the refs in his corner, as per usual. 

Key fouls against the right players, and the "art of the flop" in year 2 of the dookie handbook, has clinched it by the end of the first half. 

[medinabuckeye1]

What mcw is saying, in his way, is that MSU is about to join the Boilermakers and BUCKEYES in a three-way tie for FIRST PLACE in the B1G.

The Buckeyes/Spartans game in Columbus will be for at least a share of the lead in the B1G!