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I think personally Tenn is being accorded too much credit by many.  They have a good team, but with more defects, I think, and less talent, than some of the elite level teams in the top five, including Clemson.  I'd have them around 8 I think.  They may end up 10-2.

Tenn has a two game schedule left with UK and @ UGA.  UK with Levis healthy is a threat.  Their win at Pitt lost some luster when GaTech won at Pitt.  I would take Ole Miss on a neutral field over Tenn, and Ole Miss has a tougher slate ahead of them now (LSU. A&M, Bama, Arky, Miss St - they could easily lose 2-3 of those I think).

UGA has Florida, Tenn in Athens, and MSU and UK on the road.  I preseason saw a loss at MSU, they might lose at UK, and UF is never a gimme, nor is Tenn even in Athens.

Bama has to win out, though a 2 loss Bama would make it if their loss is the right one of course.

I've no inclinations that Tennessee is the best team in the country, maybe not even top 5.

What I do know is.....Pitt was gonna whoop us, Florida was gonna whoop us, LSU was gonna whoop us, and Bama was damn sure going to bring us down to earth.....

But, the Vols keep winning....

I'll ride the wave as far as it takes me.

I've no inclinations that Tennessee is the best team in the country, maybe not even top 5.

What I do know is.....Pitt was gonna whoop us, Florida was gonna whoop us, LSU was gonna whoop us, and Bama was damn sure going to bring us down to earth.....

But, the Vols keep winning....

I'll ride the wave as far as it takes me.

reminds me of Michigan last year- just playing with house money right now. 

Heupel has Tennessee ahead of schedule, but he's got to fix that defense and get a little bit better of running game to take it to the next level and sustain this thing he's building. 

Yeah, I keep reading this rushing game stuff.

The Vols are 27th nationally in rushing at 203 yds per game.  How much better do they need to be?


https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/23


Rushing defense is elite.  Pass defense is a cruel joke.

i keep hearing about how bad the UT D is... from people who present statistics as proof.  and from people who either a) haven't watched them play, or b) have no clue what they're talking about... 

are they a great unit?  uh- hell no.  

however, UT starts faster than most and push opposing teams to play catch up... i expected bama to change that this week past, but it didn't happen.  that was surprising in a good way from my perspective.  The 'rush' D is so good (and they are) because most teams UT has played have abandoned the run... the pass D is so bad because most teams UT plays hit the oh shit button in the first quarter and air raid.  that is the origin of the numbers...  

i listened to something Tim Banks (UT DC) said last week leading into the bama game and it changed how i see them... they ARE NOT intending to straight stop the ball... they're intention is to slow the game.  it could be said it's bull shit, but, the red zone D 'stats' supports it.  his comment was "we keep the O off the field long enough to catch their breath which is important with the tempo they run, and we take as much time off the clock as we can by tackling in bounds, as our real foe is time... the clock."... 

the pass d is near the bottom of all of CFB, but for teams that haven't played UT and aren't UT- how many passing attempts do they see in a game in comparison?  The rushing D is tight- by the numbers- but not world class by the eye by a long shot... good, yes, but they benefit by teams throwing the desperation flag and launching it, and usually starting in the mid first quarter instead of trash time.   the pass D needs help, but if you watch them they continuously play zones with lots of buffer- especially on first down.  

the offense isn't a fluke.  they got UF's best game this season- as they do dang near every year.. they got Pitt's best game... they got LSU's second best outing... they beat bama who is admittedly way off course this season (the beginning of the end of that reign?)... they'll get UK's best most likely, and there is good reason for hope that Georgia, who act as if they've "always been there", will underestimate them.  

i've not seen tOSU beat anyone worth a damn.  same with Michigan.  Same with Clemson... that said, UT is either the bottom of the top tier or top of the second tier.  it's still UGA's to lose.... therefore: 

1 tied UGA/tOSU
2 tied Clemson/Michigan/Tennessee
3 bama (if they pull their head out of their ass they're not clearly worse than those tied for second)

then tier two.... Ole Miss leading that group... 

also.... UT is in a advantageous spot- one hardly anyone else could arrange... they could lose to UGA and still make the playoff depending on what happens with UGA and Bama- requiring Bama to win out at least to the CCG and UT to only drop UGA.

make no mistake, UT 'can' beat UGA... but they could also drop a game to Mizzou or SC or UK- even to vandy, just as dang easy.  and...... that's what i think is going to happen.... 

these things work themselves out.... and i'll be watching them as they do... and enjoying the fact 'my' team is actually in the mix... somehow... 

the dynamics of the game are shifting in a major way... similar to how they did after the head of the SEC got it's ass handed to it by Nebraska- and D became the name of the game, and locking down corners to counter trip options and beat up the flats passes.  then meyer came along out of BG and at a major school nobody thought he could do the same at... but he did... spreading the line and fast execution/play-development.... and while D's were still playing lock down... to counter those Ds the HUNH became wide spread- catch a team with the wrong personnel on the field and exploit it... that's where we are... 

and that's where the interpretation of stats has to change.  

UT has a lot of passing yards this year.. Q: how many of those yards came on first down or more importantly at the beginning of a series?  I don't know what the answer is to that, but based on what i've seen "it has happened- deep passes- but more have happened when the HUNH has exposed the D UT was waiting for and locked down on the field to exploit"... 

the HUNH and tempo are the means to exploit D's... period.  those O's can't run an entire game with a team built like mere mortals (anyone other than tOSU, Bama, UGA) without time to recover.  

tempo and HUNH invite like play- shootouts- and a simple exposure identified on D (mismatch) can really make the box score worse than it is... which is the case with UT- but which at the same time isn't saying their D is great.... it IS saying their D (according to Banks) is doing what it is supposed to do.  and as long as they keep winning, that's hard to argue with. 

I like this chart for a shorthand evaluation of teams:

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1581657917123543044