Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
Alabama
Penn State
Southern California
Oklahoma State
Coastal Carolina
(James Madison)
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
North Carolina State
Mississippi State
Kansas
Minnesota
San Jose State
Teams with 1st Win Week 7 :
Colorado
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
5: TCU, UCLA, Ohio State/Michigan, Syracuse/Clemson, Georgia/Tennessee/Ole Miss
-We saw both the final two undefeateds from the Sun Belt fall this week eliminating one possible undefeated at the end of the season.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-This was a huge week, but let's starts with the elimination of one our lists completely. Colorado, while a decent underdog, beat Cal at home to take their first win of the season. With that, every FBS team has at least one win.
-We now only have 4 potential games between undefeated teams for the rest of the regular season.
-The biggest news of the week was, of course, Tennessee upsetting Alabama in a game the fanbase, really, really wanted to win again. The game is both huge and less significant than it looks for a few reasons. The rivals are in opposite divisions. If Alabama wins out, it is still going to the SEC Championship and in control of everything. If Tennessee loses to Georgia, the bulldogs are almost certainly the ones going to Atlanta. Those things aren't that much different than they were before. A few other things are different though now. For one, Alabama is now in a must win vs. a surprisingly still undefeated Ole Miss.
-Bigger for the SEC, this leaves open more ways to get two teams in the playoff bowls. Let's say Georgia wins a close one over Tennessee and then loses a close one to Alabama in the SEC Championship. That could leave us with three one loss SEC teams, each with a win over one of the others. They would not all get in, but would have decent arguments and two might well. That doesn't even factor in Ole Miss. Two is far from a lock, but I would lean to any of the non-SEC champs in that situation beating out a 1-loss Big 12, PAC-12, or ACC champ (although not a foregone conclusion).
-In the Big Ten, the divisional races are clearing up. Michigan beating Penn State, leaves Ohio State and Michigan the overwhelming favorites for the division (although Penn State is back in the race if they beat Ohio State). On the other side, Illinois beating Minnesota means they are for real. The Illini and Purdue are the definite favorites now which is not at all what would have been guessed before the season.
-The Big 12 and the PAC-12 are left with just one undefeated team each with TCU defeating fellow undefeated Oklahoma State and USC falling to Utah. Both conferences' odds of getting into the playoff are much, much smaller if TCU/UCLA do not win the conference, although there are one loss possibilities if they get some help. The best hope, by far though, is for TCU/UCLA to winout as I cannot see the committee leaving out an undefeated champ of a power 5 conference.
-Clemson hasn't often looked pretty, but they keep winning. Syracuse has been surprising and remains undefeated. They play each other this week. Clemson has a lot higher odds of making the CFP, but Syracuse is a dark horse candidate if they keep winning.
-The Mountain West lost its final 1-loss team and the Sun Belt lost both it's last remaining undefeated teams this week. That leaves no undefeateds from any Group of 5 conference and leaves 1-loss teams only in the American and Sun Belt. I think any American 1-loss champ at this point has an edge, but a 1-loss Sun Belt team will likely beat out a 2-loss from another conference. All that said, in 2014, we had a 2-loss Boise State get in and this could be a year we don't have any 1-loss teams. I'd still bet against that, but our field is getting limited. Between the American and Sun Belt we are down to just 5 teams (excluding James Madison) with a lot of season left to play.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeated teams this week and 2 games between undefeated and 1-loss teams.
-Undefeated Syracuse @ undefeated Clemson: Clemson is already 5-0 in conference so this game will be very close to clinching a spot in the ACC Championship with a win. On the other side, if Syracuse wins, they, not Clemson control their destiny for that side of the conference. The ACC has a lot better shot of a CFP spot with Clemson, but, still being unbeaten, Syracuse could make if if they win out.
-Undefeated UCLA @ 1-loss Oregon: This is quite possibly a battle between the two best teams in the PAC-12. Given Oregon has lost a game and it was in a lopsided one to an SEC team they might be directly competing with for a CFP spot, the conference is better if UCLA can win out, but Oregon is the favorite here and for the conference.
-1-loss Kansas State @ undefeated TCU: These are the 2nd and 3rd most likely to win the Big 12 right now, but the winner of this game might well be the favorite. TCU has the best chance of anyone in the Big 12 to make the playoff bowls.
-Undefeated Ole Miss @ LSU: Tennessee is for real, but what about Ole Miss? They will prove a lot if they go on the road and win this game they are only a small favorite in.
-Texas @ 1-loss Oklahoma State: The Cowboys can't morn their loss last week long. Both these teams are very much in the Big 12 title race. Texas is now actually a slight favorite in what is becoming a 4 team race. Oklahoma State isn't much behind.
- Troy @ 1-loss South Alabama (Thursday): South Alabama's 1-loss came by a point to a still undefeated UCLA. If they win out, they will have a strong argument for the Group of 5 conference spot, but right now they are only a 3-point favorite in this game.
-1-loss Cincinnati @ SMU: Cincinnati is still very much playing for their 3rd New Years Six bowl in a row, but they are only a small favorite at SMU and it is not certain they can afford a loss.
-BYU @ 1-loss Liberty: Liberty feels kind of like an east coast version of BYU (religious schools, playing as independents). This will be the last time the two meet as independents with both joining conferences next year.
Minnesota @ 1-loss Penn State: Penn State is not out of the east race yet. If they beat Ohio State and Ohio State beats Michigan, they are looking for tie breakers. They can't afford another loss though. Meanwhile, Minnesota looked to be the rising team in the west, but has been overshadowed by Illinois and Purdue. They need this game to stay in that race.
1-loss UCF @ East Carolina: UCF is only a small favorite here. Much better for the American if Central Florida keeps winning.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 0, total: 9
Clemson
Syracuse
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas Christian
UCLA
Georgia
Tennessee
Mississippi
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 1, total: 16
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Cincinnati
Tulane
Central Florida
Kansas State
Illinois
Oregon
South Alabama
Liberty
Alabama
Penn State
Southern California
Oklahoma State
Coastal Carolina
(James Madison)
Remaining Winless Teams: PAC-12: 0, total: 0
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