header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE

 (Read 3499 times)

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 24172
  • Liked:
Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« on: May 24, 2026, 07:28:17 PM »
Player A
Year 1:  259-395 (65.6%) for 3,896 yds and 34 TD with 12 INT ~ 170.8 rating.......rush N/A
Year 2:  287-503 (57.1%) for 3,402 yds and 22 TD with 17 INT ~ 121.5 rating.......rush N/A
.
Player B
Year 1:  90-152 (59.2%) for 1,840 yds and 12 TD with 5 INT ~ 180.4 rating.....108 car for 585 yds rushing (5.4 ypc) with 8 TD
Year 2:  87-161 (54.0%) for 1,234 yds and 8 TD with 6 INT ~ 127.4 rating.....104 car for 617 yds rushing (5.9 ypc) with 8 TD
.
Player C
Year 1:  107-161 (66.5%) for 1,474 yds and 7 TD with 6 INT ~ 150.3 rating.....156 car for 418 rushing yds (2.7 ypc) with 8 TD
Year 2:  119-204 (58.3%) for 1,131 yds and 4 TD with 10 INT ~ 101.6 rating.....104 car for -1 rushing yard (0.0 ypc) with 2 TD
.
Who fell off the biggest cliff?  Player IDs after voting concludes.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 54486
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2026, 07:36:09 AM »
player "A"
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 36125
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2026, 09:42:04 AM »
A
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 16920
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2026, 09:44:13 AM »
Who fell off the biggest cliff?  Player IDs after voting concludes.
Made my vote for Player C. Will give reasoning once voting concludes.

Gigem

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5013
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2026, 01:53:47 PM »
Player C went from useful dual-threat production to basically losing the entire rushing side:

418 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs down to -1 rushing yard and 2 rushing TDs. Add the passing drop and the higher INTs, and that’s the biggest all-around collapse.
So my ranking would be:

1. Player C - worst overall regression
2. Player A - worst pure passing/volume regression
3. Player B - ugly passing drop, but rushing softened the fall



bayareabadger

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10505
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2026, 02:42:29 PM »
C is the worst regression (and I think I might remember who it was and be laughing about his pro prospects?)

B feels like an option QB who dipped slightly with some noise. EDIT: I now have a guess for B and it’s not a pure option guy, but more of a modern one.

A feels like a gunslinger who got overconfident and sloppy (I also think I know who that was)

And wrong on all guesses!

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 24172
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2026, 09:32:30 PM »
C is the worst regression (and I think I might remember who it was and be laughing about his pro prospects?)

B feels like an option QB who dipped slightly with some noise. EDIT: I now have a guess for B and it’s not a pure option guy, but more of a modern one.

A feels like a gunslinger who got overconfident and sloppy (I also think I know who that was)

And wrong on all guesses!
Could you share your guesses? (not the actual players)
I'm curious who you were thinking. 
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10505
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2026, 10:34:46 AM »
The first one had some Jameis Winston energy and the second one had some Jake locker energy. But both of them were better.

Last minute, I started to wonder if the middle one was Anthony Richardson, but he was a lot less productive in his first season that I remember and kind of more productive in his second.

(Sorted through some folks, eventually figured out A)
« Last Edit: May 26, 2026, 10:54:19 AM by bayareabadger »

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 16920
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2026, 10:59:55 AM »
My thoughts--guess since everyone is talking reasoning I might as well add my own...

A: Drop-off on every statistical measure, comp%, ypc, ypa, TD/INT. But this to me is perhaps a team that got worse around the player, and he was asked to contribute a lot more volume. I don't worry about the raw INT numbers, because it's on almost 25% higher volume. And I don't necessarily worry about raw TD numbers, because depending on system teams can punch it in on the ground. I recall one year Curtis Painter at Purdue had a pretty bad TD:INT ratio, but that was when the team was running some spread option and RB Kory Sheets had a massive year for rushing TDs. They schemed the ball to the RB in the red zone so the lack of TDs wasn't Painter's fault. So to me this is a player that was just asked to do SO much more and statistically suffered because the team around him wasn't as good. 

B: Dual threat QB that ultimately isn't exactly a volume passer to begin with. Took a statistical step back throwing the ball in year 2, but not massively. Had greater than 10 ypa in year 1 and greater than 10 ypc in year 2, so this wasn't a "dink and dunk" passing game. So I'm not going to penalize one additional INT on slightly higher volume, and much like player A, a few fewer passing TDs is statistical noise. The rushing didn't fall off, so to me this player didn't regress all that much at all. 

C: First year under 10 ypa and second year nearly down to 5 ypa, so this team wasn't throwing deep all the time. At 5 ypa, under 60% completion with 10 interceptions (almost 1 in every 20 attempts) is pretty terrible. Significant statistical drop-off in pretty much every measure in the passing game. Rushing also fell off a cliff, so he wasn't adding value with his legs. Perhaps some of that was due to taking sacks which count against rushing yards, but it's still pretty bad.

So I had to vote C.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 54486
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2026, 11:20:50 AM »
I know its about the player but I'm guessing player A's team was decidedly worse in winning percentage in the 2nd season

because TD/INT
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 36125
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2026, 12:07:11 PM »
Yeah, the 17 INT's tipped player A in for me.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 16920
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2026, 12:36:54 PM »
Yeah, the 17 INT's tipped player A in for me.
Eh. Player A's interceptions per attempt is between players B and C.

A: INT every 22.8 throws, 6.8 ypa, 11.9 ypc
B: INT every 26.8 throws, 7.7 ypa, 14.2 ypc
C: INT every 20.4 throws, 5.5 ypa, 9.3 ypc

So player A was throwing 1.3 yards deeper on average, completing 2.6 yards deeper on average, and yet still throwing INTs at a rate 2.4 per attempt better than player C

Player C had 40% of the attempts as player A, should have had higher-percentage throws based on ypa, and yet turned it over at a higher rate. And yet couldn't save his output with his legs.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 36125
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2026, 01:15:11 PM »
17 is too many.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10505
  • Liked:
Re: Which was the worse regression? - VOTE
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2026, 01:49:37 PM »
I know its about the player but I'm guessing player A's team was decidedly worse in winning percentage in the 2nd season

because TD/INT
Not wrong.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.