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Topic: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2020, 02:27:19 AM »
On 2012:

5 Conf champs + 2 At-large + 1 G5
At-Large:  #1 Notre Dame (at large by default?)
SEC Champ:  #2 Alabama
Big XII Champ:  #5 Kansas St
Pac-12 Champ:  #6 Stanford
ACC Champ:  #12 FSU
G5 Rep:  #15 No. Illinois
B10 Champ:  UR Wisconsin
..............................................
Thanks to ND, there's only 1 at-large spot. 
#3 Florida
#4 Oregon
#7 Georgia (won SEC East, beat Florida, but lost SECCG)
Some would pick Florida, for being #3.  Some would pick Georgia - not wanting to penalize their loss in the SECCG.  You can cite UGA beating Florida already.  You could cite UGA had their chance vs Bama and Florida hasn't had theirs.  You could say screw the SEC and pick Oregon.
................................................
But here's why I dove into 2008:  pretend ND isn't there.  THEN we've got a party.
Without the Irish, you've got the above, but with 2 at-large spots still.
Some of us think "easy", Florida and Oregon are in, done deal. 
But for those of us who choose Georgia over Florida, you'd then have to go with Georgia AND Florida.  Why?  Because by that argument, that Florida already had its chance and lost to UGA, Oregon already lost to Stanford, didn't win their division, and sat home on championship week. 
Hell some people may even go with Georgia and #11 Oklahoma.
......
But yeah, it's not often one conference winds up with 6 teams in the top 10 like the SEC in 2012.
......
And none of that deals with having 3 teams outside the top 10 in our 8-team playoff, including an unranked team.  F- that noise.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2020, 10:01:14 AM »
And none of that deals with having 3 teams outside the top 10 in our 8-team playoff, including an unranked team.  F- that noise.
FWIW:
The 2012 situation in the B1G would be EXTREMELY unusual and possibly never happen again.  Here is everything that had to happen for the B1G to end up with an unranked Champion:
  • Ohio State goes 8-0/12-0 but is under a postseason ban so they can't go to the B1GCG.  
  • Penn State goes 6-2/8-4 (lost to OhioU, Virginia, Ohio State, and Nebraska) but is also under a postseason ban so they can't go to the B1GCG.  
  • The dropoff in the tOSU/PSU division is so severe that the #3 team is 4-4/7-5 Wisconsin (lost to OrSU, Nebraska, MSU, tOSU, and PSU).  
  • Wisconsin, despite losing to Nebraska in the regular season destroys Nebraska in the B1GCG to finish 8-5.  

The chances of all of that happening again are slim-to-none.  

Additionally, to be fair to 2012 Wisconsin they were better than their record and underrated.  Three of their five losses were in OT (MSU, tOSU, PSU) and the other two were by three points each (OrSU, UNL).  Additionally, three of their five losses were on the road (OrSU - not just road by REALLY far, UNL, PSU).  

That said, allowing auto-bids for conference champions is definitely going to result in some teams that do NOT have a reasonable argument to be in the top-8 getting in.  The G5 Champion is obvious but even beyond that there are going to be CCG upsets and relatively weak P5 Champions as well.  Most are going to be more like VaTech in your example above and ranked ~20.  

As I've said before, I get your argument.  In theory I agree that an 8-team playoff should be the best eight teams.  The stumbling block for me is that in reality there isn't enough inter-league play among the top teams for us to be able to REALLY know that the PAC Champion sucks.  We might all think so but in a given year there is almost zero chance that the PAC Champion has played more than one game against top teams from other conferences.  Maybe they got blown out by the fifth best team in the SEC or lost at home to the third best team in the B1G but upsets happen.  Maybe that was just a bad day for them.  

Aside from that there is, as I discussed in another thread, political/legal pressure to give every team a chance.  That pressure is probably insurmountable.  Eight teams with the five P5 Champs, the highest ranked G5 Champ, and two at-large teams is a hybrid/compromise between the hardline "Champions only" position and the hardline "Best teams only" position.  


Cincydawg

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2020, 10:10:10 AM »
Obviously, if the CG winners are in, and the best G5 is in, you only have two slots left.  How often would BOTH slots be teams from the same conference?

I think this would be a rare enough event that we needn't worry about it.

I was musing about a scenario this season, say Alabama beats UGA in the season, and then again in the CG, and UGA at 12-2 gets into the playoff and meets and beats Alabama in that playoff.  What does that mean?  They won "when it counted"???

medinabuckeye1

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2020, 10:12:01 AM »
Arguments for/against as I see them:

Arguments for limiting it to two teams per conference:
In theory Bama could lose to Auburn on a crazy fluke kick-6 and finish 11-1 but miss the SECCG while Florida loses to Georgia on some similarly bizarre and "fluky" play and also finishes 11-1 but not in the SECCG.  Then we could all watch while the SECCG matches the third and fourth best SEC teams in Auburn and Georgia while the best two SEC teams (UF and Bama) sit at home.  In that case it makes sense for Bama and Florida to both get at-large bids.  

In practice, the chances of all of that happening in the same year are slim-to-none.  

If two teams from your conference are already in and your team is being considered for the second at-large spot it means that:

  • Your team didn't win their conference.  They had a chance to do that and didn't do it, and
  • Your team also wasn't the highest ranked non-champion from your conference.  They had a chance to do that and didn't do that either.  
So the argument is that if your team doesn't win their league AND isn't the highest ranked non-Champion from their league then it isn't unfair to exclude them.  

Arguments for not limiting it to two teams per conference:
My theoretical above with Bama/UF being the best two SEC teams but missing the SECCG could happen.  Even if not, maybe Iowa and Ohio State really were the best two non-champions in 2015.  They both only lost once.  Iowa lost a close B1GCG and Ohio State lost a close game to MSU.  Maybe Ohio State and Michigan really were the best two non-champions in 2016.  Ohio State lost a close road game at PSU and Michigan lost two close road games to good teams (1 point at Iowa, OT at tOSU).  

If we are going to have at-large teams we should take the best ones available and excluding 2015 Ohio State because Iowa already got in doesn't make sense.  Neither does excluding 2016 Michigan because Ohio State already got in.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2020, 10:20:35 AM »
Obviously, if the CG winners are in, and the best G5 is in, you only have two slots left.  How often would BOTH slots be teams from the same conference?

I think this would be a rare enough event that we needn't worry about it.

I was musing about a scenario this season, say Alabama beats UGA in the season, and then again in the CG, and UGA at 12-2 gets into the playoff and meets and beats Alabama in that playoff.  What does that mean?  They won "when it counted"???
In six years of the CFP it would have happened twice.  That is once every three years so it isn't some remote hypothetical that might never happen.  

Both times would have benefited the B1G:
  • 2015:  The top two non-Champions were #5 Iowa and #7 tOSU.  The team that would have gotten in if tOSU had been excluded was #8 Notre Dame*.  
  • 2016:  The top two non-Champions were #5 tOSU and #6 Michigan.  The team that would have gotten in if Michigan had been excluded was #9 USC (because the rule would also have excluded #8 Wisconsin)^


*Note that while the dropoff from #7 to #8 doesn't seem severe, tOSU was 11-1 with a close loss to MSU while ND was 10-2.  

^Again, the dropoff from #6 Michigan to #9 USC may not seem severe, Michigan was 10-2 with two extremely close road losses both to good teams while USC was 9-3, missed the PACCG, got run off the field by Bama (52-6), and lost by 17 to Stanford.  

Cincydawg

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2020, 10:28:17 AM »
I would be content if it happened a couple of times.  No big deal to me.

I of course don't like the 8 team playoff idea at all, but that is moot.

Entropy

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2020, 12:19:28 PM »
I'd say only top 2.  I still believe there is bias in the system.   I think there would be more interest in spreading things around and rewarding performance in your conference.

CWSooner

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Re: WHEN we go to an 8-team CFP would you limit it to 2 teams per conf
« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2020, 09:27:32 PM »
I think we all know the outlier seasons to test the limits of these proposals are 2008 (Big XII 3-way tie) and 2012 (3 SEC teams in top 4 before championship week).
5 Conf champs + 2 At-Large + 1 G5
2008:
Big XII Champ:  #1 Oklahoma
SEC Champ:  #2 Florida
Pac-10 Champ:  #5 USC
G5 Rep:  #6 Utah
B10 Champ:  #8 Penn St
ACC Champ:  #19 VA Tech
.............................
Now first of all, screw this.  A 19th-ranked team in any 8-team playoff is crap.
Secondly, even if you shrug and say they won the ACC, they earned their way in, look at this:
#3 Texas went 11-1
#4 Alabama went 11-1
#7 Texas Tech went 11-1
#9 Boise State went 12-0, and if you're a proponent for G5 teams getting in, the Broncos have the bad luck here of G5 Utah being ranked higher. 
.......................
Anyway, so we let in Texas and Alabama, right?  Despite Texas Tech beating Texas and having the same record?  Say what you want, but in this case, we're right back to square one of helmet-osity and rewarding early losses over later losses (UT lost earlier than TTU did). 
Tech beat Texas 39-33 but lost 2 games later to Oklahoma 65-21.  I suspect that point differential was more important in the rankings than when the game was played.
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