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Topic: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas

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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #182 on: December 01, 2025, 05:41:42 PM »
Gonna need a bigger boat.  

CWSooner

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #183 on: December 01, 2025, 06:57:17 PM »
Oh yeah I'm not arguing against any of that, and I'm not arguing that Texas should be included.  And I won't shed a tear if Texas is NOT included.

But I am saying that despite all that, a 10-2 Texas with a win over Georgia State rather than a loss to Ohio State, and with wins over top 12 Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt, isn't getting left out of the playoff.  Nobody else has a resume' with wins like that.

And that's the point of this thread that medina brought up.  Does it pay to schedule tough OOC games?  For Texas, this season, the answer appears to be a resounding "no."

I'm biased because I love great OOC matchups, but I don't think that Texas' experience with TOSU this season is enough data for anyone to state decisively that scheduling OOC patsies is the way to go.

And my comment echoes your last one: "For Texas, this season, the answer appears to be a resounding 'no.'"
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Gigem

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #184 on: December 01, 2025, 07:01:59 PM »
It's very simple.


  • We throw out all except the top 32 teams, and make a league out of them.
  • Separate them into two conferences, with four divisions each.
  • The only play each other; not any of the discarded teams.
  • 17 game schedule.
  • Play your division mates twice each season, and a collection of other teams once--schedule chosen by the league not the ADs--the rest of the season.
  • Every division leader makes the playoffs.
  • To ensure worthy teams aren't excluded, we'll have 3 additional teams from each conference make the playoffs. I don't like the term "at large", so let's pick something more fun... How about "wild card"?
  • The top team in each conference gets a bye. The rest of the playoff games are giving home field advantage to the team with the best record.
  • When we get things down to the end, we'll have the two top teams from each conference play for the College Football National Championship. Wait... That name is WAY too long. But you know, college football used to be all about the bowls. So maybe we'll name a bowl after it. But what term is superlative enough to explain how big of a bowl game this is? Hmmm... Let's go with "Super Bowl".

See! I've just fixed college football.
I mean we all know you are joking but isn't this where we're really headed?  Maybe not exactly, but we will definitely at some point have something very close to this.  Top 32 teams...awful lot of great CFB teams being left out of there.  Michigan State...out.  Ok State....out.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #185 on: December 01, 2025, 07:05:45 PM »
I mean we all know you are joking but isn't this where we're really headed?  Maybe not exactly, but we will definitely at some point have something very close to this.  Top 32 teams...awful lot of great CFB teams being left out of there.  Michigan State...out.  Ok State....out. 
Yes, joking, but I'm known for a certain type of humor...



utee94

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #186 on: December 01, 2025, 07:06:04 PM »
I'm biased because I love great OOC matchups, but I don't think that Texas' experience with TOSU this season is enough data for anyone to state decisively that scheduling OOC patsies is the way to go.

And my comment echoes your last one: "For Texas, this season, the answer appears to be a resounding 'no.'"
The risk/reward ratio just isn't there.  Too much risk, too little chance of reward.  It's not binary, there are a range of outcomes possible.  But I believe the negative or neutral outcomes have a >50% chance of being realized, which is all I need to see, to make a decision.

Like I said, that wasn't true in the 4-team playoff.  Texas playing Alabama was worth the risk in 2023.  But the 12-team playoff field changes the calculation.

And in a future potential 16-team playoff it'll possibly change again.

But right now, in the 12-team playoff world, it's just not worth the risk.  Scheduling a loss eliminates all margin of error.  Why would you do that, when you have a choice not to?

SFBadger96

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #187 on: December 01, 2025, 07:15:00 PM »
This also gets at who you want your program to be. If you are K-State or VaTech in the 1990s, you just wanted as many wins as you could get. But there's a reason that many of us didn't put them on the same level as Nebraska or Texas. I pulled those two at random from my memory of when I was most invested in college football. Then I randomly selected some years to peruse. In 1997 Nebraska played at #2 Washington. Nebraska wasn't afraid. K-State went 11-1, with their one loss to...Nebraska. But they didn't play anyone of note outside of the Big XII. Then I randomly picked 1995 for VaTech and Texas. They played each other in a bowl. VaTech beat Texas, the SWC champion, who had one loss and one tie. The tie was in-conference to OU; the loss was OOC to Notre Dame. VaTech was 10-2, with that big win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Their two losses were to BC (in-conference), and--laughably 9 (at least in 1995)--Cincinnati. They didn't play anyone of note OOC until the Sugar Bowl. Now maybe that suggests that VaTech scheduled better. But from my perspective, I respect Texas, and I never respected VaTech (not as a serious national contender)*. So, if wins and losses matter more than respect, by all means, don't schedule potential losses. But if you want to be one of the Kings, suck up the losses and hold your head high, even if you miss out on losing in the college football playoff.

That's what Texas should do because it is Texas. That should be enough.


*Curiously, VaTech had a substantially better 1990s than Texas did. And yet this is my impression of that program. So don't schedule patsies just to pad your record. Play good teams to prove you are good--or at least want to be.

FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #188 on: December 01, 2025, 07:21:43 PM »
Like I said, that wasn't true in the 4-team playoff.  Texas playing Alabama was worth the risk in 2023.  But the 12-team playoff field changes the calculation.

only because the Horns won that game - if they had lost and then lost to Oklahoma as they did - they would have had 2 losses

in the history of the 4-team playoff no 2-loss team made the playoff
when you can only afford a single loss, it's a poor risk to schedule a road game vs the #3 team
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utee94

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #189 on: December 01, 2025, 07:39:01 PM »
only because the Horns won that game - if they had lost and then lost to Oklahoma as they did - they would have had 2 losses

in the history of the 4-team playoff no 2-loss team made the playoff
when you can only afford a single loss, it's a poor risk to schedule a road game vs the #3 team
No what I'm saying is, even with a win, Texas was still very much on the bubble that year.   A win over Wake Forest instead of Alabama and everything else playing out as it did, and Texas is out.

So the risk was worth it.  That's the difference between a 4-team playoff where you need every edge to shine over other similar 1-loss teams, and a 12-team playoff where the committee's just sorting by W/L.



That's what Texas should do because it is Texas. That should be enough.


*Curiously, VaTech had a substantially better 1990s than Texas did. And yet this is my impression of that program. So don't schedule patsies just to pad your record. Play good teams to prove you are good--or at least want to be.
The playoff has changed all of that.  We can lament that this is what college football now is, but this is what college football now is.

Also just one minor correction, Texas-OU was an OOC game in 1995.  B12 started in 1996.

FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #190 on: December 01, 2025, 07:46:22 PM »
No what I'm saying is, even with a win, Texas was still very much on the bubble that year.  A win over Wake Forest instead of Alabama and everything else playing out as it did, and Texas is out.

So the risk was worth it.  That's the difference between a 4-team playoff where you need every edge to shine over other similar 1-loss teams, and a 12-team playoff where the committee's just sorting by W/L.
I see and understand
of course this logic works if the Horns had only 2 losses this season - Let's say Ohio St. and Florida (Y'all beat the derned Sooners 3-loss Sooners)
the committee would be looking for that edge to shine over the other 2-loss teams
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #191 on: December 01, 2025, 09:35:20 PM »
as Afro knows - gotta have a few doormats to take perennial beatings so the blue bloods look better
Clearly Nebraska would be the cannon fodder, in an all Kings and Barons conference. :111:

FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #192 on: December 01, 2025, 09:36:34 PM »
hell, they're cannon fodder now and have been for a couple decades

but, better to be cannon fodder than left out in the cold to freeze to death
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #193 on: December 01, 2025, 09:52:57 PM »
Getting rid of the divisions was a mistake. 

Absolute schedule chaos, just to get a slightly better CCG, which isn't weighted all that heavily anyway. 

FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #194 on: December 01, 2025, 10:12:39 PM »
hah, just to prevent an undeserving division champ with multiple losses to earn the conference chap with an upset in the CCG

If the Big had east-west divisions,.......... Oregon would be playing Ohio St.

Poor Hoosiers

with more balanced schedules in the East - the Hoosiers would have already played Ohio St.

Oregon may well be undefeated in the West and ranked #2
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #195 on: December 01, 2025, 10:31:32 PM »
Yeah, the Big Ten and SEC would have so many teams that each division at this point that it would produce a legit champ. The teams in the divisions would all play head to head, so you wouldn't have all the tiebreakers between 4 teams that didn't play each other. The schedules would be more easily comparable.

Even without the divisions, you still have a five loss Duke that could win the ACC.

 

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