Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

It's also interesting that Painter has had one team seeded to get that far and two teams better than four seeds. And he's run into a lot of one seeds.

Yeah, and the year Purdue had Hummel, Johnson, and Moore as juniors, along with a senior Kramer to be the defensive stopper, they were at one point ranked #3 in the country. Then Hummel tore his ACL in February, and a team that would have likely fallen at worst to a 2 seed even if they'd lost a few games, but without Hummel they slipped to a 4.
Last year, Purdue was at one point also ranked #3 in the country, and although they hit a 3-game skid after that, remained a 2 seed in the tournament. But then Haas broke his elbow in the first game, and that was that. 
2009: They had a 5 that reached the S16 (Hummel/Johnson/Moore as sophomores), and faced a 1.
2010: They had a 4 that should have been a 1 or 2, but Hummel was lost in late Feb and they still made the S16, losing to a 1.
2011: They had a 3 that got clobbered by #11 VCU in the round of 32. That was the missed opportunity... Had they beaten VCU they would have faced #10 FSU, which would have been a good opportunity to break through.
2017: As a 4, they ran into #1 Kansas in the S16. Played them close for 25 minutes, and then Kansas just went nuts.
2018: Had a 2, lost Haas to injury late in the round of 64. Beat #10 Butler to reach the S16, but then without Haas, lost to #3 TTU.
2011 was the best chance at the "broken bracket", but unfortunately part of the reason that bracket was broken was Purdue losing to VCU... 

Yeah, and the year Purdue had Hummel, Johnson, and Moore as juniors, along with a senior Kramer to be the defensive stopper, they were at one point ranked #3 in the country. Then Hummel tore his ACL in February, and a team that would have likely fallen at worst to a 2 seed even if they'd lost a few games, but without Hummel they slipped to a 4.
Last year, Purdue was at one point also ranked #3 in the country, and although they hit a 3-game skid after that, remained a 2 seed in the tournament. But then Haas broke his elbow in the first game, and that was that.

gotta have a little luck

That's what gets me about the other forum where some of these folks are saying he'll NEVER get past the S16. They say 13 years is enough time to judge, and if he hasn't yet, it's never going to happen.
And when you point out that he's had a couple teams that looked like they should have gotten past but were derailed by injuries, and his other teams (4/5 seeds) that "shouldn't"--by the numbers anyway--make the E8 had doubly-difficult roads as they weren't beneficiaries of broken brackets and faced the #1 seed?
"Those are just excuses."

some of those folks are idiots

Thanks to everyone for responding. I kinda tabulated the numbers (assuming that 0-20 was 10% likely, 20-40 was 30% likely, 40-60 was 50% likely, and 60-80 was 70% likely), and came up with an average "prediction" of about 28% with 13 votes tabulated...

That's just back of a napkin math, but does that seem like an out of the realm number to you folks?

I'd run your vote again with ELA/Medina's suggestion of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50+.
I also see 2 people voted in the 60-80 bracket, so maybe just asking people what there percentage was would give you better lazy math.
The fact your sample size is 13 is really small, so any result needs to be taken with several grains of salt.
When I look at the results, I see a large chunk of "realists" that says it takes elite talent and lucky breaks to make the elite 8.
And I see a couple (possible 4) optimists, that says he has had the talent to get there, and can break through any season.
The last 3 voters placed their vote where the "average" came out, I don't know if they get a label or not. With out knowing who voted where Smart@ss comes to mind. 

I do think that a lot of this is luck.  You pointed out upthread:

• 2009:  as a #5, lost to a #1 in the S16
• 2010:  as a #4, lost to a #1 in the S16
• 2017:  as a #4, lost to a #1 in the S16
• 2018:  as a #2, lost to a #3 in the S16

On all four of those occasions they played the highest seed they could have, based on seeding, in the S16 and in three of the four they obviously played a #1 seed which is as tough as it gets.  

My theory on this is:

• In the first round your opponent is almost 0% luck and almost 100% dependent on how good your team was.  
• In the Round of 32 your opponent is about 25% luck and about 75% dependent on how good your team was.  
• In the S16 your opponent is about 50% luck and about 50% dependent on how good your team was.  
• In the E8 your opponent is about 90% luck and about 10% dependent on how good your team was.  

In that 50/50 S16 Purdue has had a real string of bad luck.  

bump

and might do it again

no one, not even myself voted for 81-100%