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Topic: What are the odds of Purdue reaching Elite Eight or better in 5 years?

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betarhoalphadelta

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Question from another forum... There are some Purdue fans who believe that if Matt Painter has never eclipsed the Sweet Sixteen, he's got a hard "ceiling" due to athleticism of the roster and style of play that he will never overcome. Others believe that after knocking on the door in the Hummel/Moore/Johnson years and then again in the Biggie/Edwardseseses/Haas years, often to be derailed by injury, he's almost been there already.

This year Purdue graduated 4 seniors. They bring back Jr Carsen Edwards, Rs So Matt Haarms, and So Nojel Eastern (along with Sr Ryan Cline). The incoming 2018 class, counting redshirts, is 5 strong, and adds grad transfer Evan Boudreaux with 2 years eligibility remaining. His 2019 class already has two decent recruits in PG Isaiah Thompson and SF/PF Mason Gillis, with some good leans from PF Malik Hall and SG Brandon Newman, and some big names that Purdue is aggressively tracking undecided.

So the question I've got, since you guys are pretty objective and knowledgeable, is what you realistically think are the odds that Purdue eclipses the S16 in the next 5 seasons...

847badgerfan

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Was Y2K the last year that PU made it to the Round of Eight? I remember that year.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Was Y2K the last year that PU made it to the Round of Eight? I remember that year.
So do I. We played Wisconsin 4 times. The final time was when you eliminated us that year.
But yes, I do believe that was the last time.

SFBadger96

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I voted 0-20, but not because I see Painter's ceiling so much as because reaching the Elite 8 is hard for any team.

847badgerfan

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So do I. We played Wisconsin 4 times. The final time was when you eliminated us that year.
But yes, I do believe that was the last time.
UW played MSU 4 times as well, and lost all damn 4.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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I voted 0-20, but not because I see Painter's ceiling so much as because reaching the Elite 8 is hard for any team.
Ed Zachery - only the top 5 or 6 programs can expect to get to the elite 8 once out of 5 seasons.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Yeah, I would have broken it down into groups of 10%, with >40% being the top.  As is, the top 3 choices are out for basically any program but the absolute elite programs.

847badgerfan

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0-20.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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I voted 0-20, but not because I see Painter's ceiling so much as because reaching the Elite 8 is hard for any team.

Ed Zachery - only the top 5 or 6 programs can expect to get to the elite 8 once out of 5 seasons.

Fair enough. I think that's FAR more true of the Final Four than the Elite Eight, though. I think a typical "top ten" team should expect at least once, and possibly multiple.

MSU has been to 2 in the last 5 years and 4 in the last 10. 
North Carolina the same.
Duke the same.

Now, Purdue isn't in the same league as those teams. But I wanted to highlight that it should be so hard for the "top" programs to achieve at least one, if not multiple, in 5 years.

Michigan 2 of the past 5, 3 of the past 10.
Wisconsin 2 of the past 5, only 2 of the past 10.
OSU 0 of the past 5, 2 of the past 10.

I put Purdue in a closer competition with those three. They average just over 1 per 5 years. I suppose I could be accused of cherry-picking against IU here, but IU has been in coaching turmoil since Knight, whereas Purdue has not. 

bayareabadger

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Fair enough. I think that's FAR more true of the Final Four than the Elite Eight, though. I think a typical "top ten" team should expect at least once, and possibly multiple.

MSU has been to 2 in the last 5 years and 4 in the last 10.
North Carolina the same.
Duke the same.

Now, Purdue isn't in the same league as those teams. But I wanted to highlight that it should be so hard for the "top" programs to achieve at least one, if not multiple, in 5 years.

Michigan 2 of the past 5, 3 of the past 10.
Wisconsin 2 of the past 5, only 2 of the past 10.
OSU 0 of the past 5, 2 of the past 10.

I put Purdue in a closer competition with those three. They average just over 1 per 5 years. I suppose I could be accused of cherry-picking against IU here, but IU has been in coaching turmoil since Knight, whereas Purdue has not.

Tournaments are weird and dumb. Keep going, eventually something happens, maybe. Or it doesn't.
(Wisconsin was one dumb possession away from losing in the second round in the first Final Four run, was down by four with seven minutes left in the Sweet 16 the next year, was a basket away from the Elite 8 in 2012, made one without facing a single-digit seed. It's all dumb sometimes)
It's also interesting that Painter has had one team seeded to get that far and two teams better than four seeds. And he's run into a lot of one seeds. 

medinabuckeye1

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I think I agree with ELA in that anything more than ~40% is Dook/Kansas/Kentucky territory so all we are really talking about here is whether Purdue's chances are either:
  • 0-20% or
  • 21-40%
I think it is close to 20% but I'm still going to go with the group and pick 0-20%.  

You have pointed out many times that Purdue has had really bad luck in nearly always getting high seed opponents.  @bayareabadger 's point about flukes is also very true.  It is the same for Ohio State.  When they went to the CG against Florida with Oden they were very nearly eliminated in the second round by a #8 seed.  That would have been a humongous difference between a #1 seed that flamed out in the second round and a NC appearance and it almost happened.  

The point is that there is a lot of luck that goes into this.  Most team's don't get Michigans path to the Championship Game.  It happens once in a while and when it does you just hope that your team is in the right place at the right time and takes advantage of it.  
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 10:28:15 AM by medinabuckeye1 »

Brutus Buckeye

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I don't know, but the Boilers' odds of going undefeated are far greater than their odds of going winless.
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

fezzador

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I voted 0-20, but probably closer to 20 than it is to 0.  PU has a very good hoops program (the average fan would never guess that they lead the all-time series against IU) but has too inconsistent to be a real powerhouse.  Painter has done a lot of good things for the program, but maybe he's not the guy to get them to the next level.  But it might not be completely on him.  Purdue hasn't been terribly lucky at getting good draws in their bracket either.  Even elite programs need favorable matchups to go deep most years.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 11:40:03 AM by fezzador »

TyphonInc

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I answered at %50 (41-60) they seemed to have consistently the talent to get to the sweet 16, that's 1 upset away from the elite 8.

 

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