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Topic: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2017, 09:32:00 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 06, 2017, 09:07:42 PM
I like your breakdown, but agree with PortlandSpartan based on your logic with regards to OSU.

If OSU's monster blowouts are disregarded for being against bottom-seven opponents, then it stands to reason that Michigan can't use smaller blowouts against bottom-seven teams as a means of pole-vaulting ahead of a team with two overtime wins over top-seven teams.
FWIW:  I don't totally disregard Ohio State's monster blowouts against bottom-seven opponents, I just treat them as MUCH less relevant than their performance against the relative equals in the top-7.  Basically, a tiebreaker.  In regard to Michigan and Northwestern, they are close enough to me that the tiebreaker of performance against the bottom-7 is the deciding factor.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2017, 09:33:48 AM »
Quote from: ELA on November 06, 2017, 10:14:59 PM
I don't think we ever established a firm rule on these.  I've never abided by one.  To me it's some mix of eyeball test, results and recency bias, with inconsistent weight applied week to week.
I basically agree with this.  On the recency bias I weight that more heavily if a recent injury has eliminated a major contributor because I think that "Power Rankings" means power right now.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2017, 09:40:23 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 07, 2017, 09:33:48 AM
I basically agree with this.  On the recency bias I weight that more heavily if a recent injury has eliminated a major contributor because I think that "Power Rankings" means power right now.  
Yep, this is where I'm at.

UW just lost its best receiver and if I were to do new rankings I would drop UW right now as a result. Instead, I will wait until Saturday's outcomes to re-evaluate my rankings. I want to see how they do without that kid, and also without yet another starting linebacker.
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LittlePig

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2017, 01:13:14 PM »
Of course if you throw out the performance against the bottom 7 entirely, and only consider games against the top 7,  you could argue that OSU and Mich should be #6 and #7. 
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Geolion91

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2017, 01:14:51 PM »
I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State.  They looked terrible last week.  Did no one actually watch any of the game?
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2017, 01:28:01 PM »
Quote from: Geolion91 on November 07, 2017, 01:14:51 PM
I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State.  They looked terrible last week.  Did no one actually watch any of the game?
They couldn't've possible looked as terrible as OSU vs Iowa. Or Michigan vs Penn St. Or zzzzzzzzz... What was the question? 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2017, 01:30:31 PM »
IF you think OSU would beat whoever neutral field probably, then OSU should be #1, no matter their Iowa game.

Who are you going to believe, me or your lyin' eyes?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2017, 01:48:50 PM »
Quote from: Geolion91 on November 07, 2017, 01:14:51 PM
I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State.  They looked terrible last week.  Did no one actually watch any of the game?
The problem, at this point, is that every team has issues.  Arguing against each:
  • Wisconsin:  They may be 9-0 but they have only played one top-7 opponent and their win in that game was only a nine point home win over Northwestern.  In their games against the bottom-7 they only looked really impressive against Indiana and even that was only equal to Ohio State's performance and about the same as PSU's.  
  • Michigan State:  They are 3-1 against the top-7 but all three wins were close and two of them were at home.  
  • Penn State:  They have two losses.  
  • Iowa:  The win over Ohio State was great but they are still only 1-3 against the top-7 and barely beat Minnesota.  
  • Ohio State:  Looks great against the cupcakes, barely won at home against PSU and got blown out on the road against Iowa.  
  • Northwestern:  They are 2-2 against the top-7 but both wins were in OT at home while the losses were by nine on the road and a blowout at home.  
  • Michigan:  0-2 against the top-7 with a blowout loss on the road and a home loss.  
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LittlePig

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2017, 01:55:04 PM »
Quote from: Geolion91 on November 07, 2017, 01:14:51 PM
I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State.  They looked terrible last week.  Did no one actually watch any of the game?
That was my reaction to anybody who still had OSU high after just getting pummeled by Iowa.    I think if you actaully watch the game, you have a different reaction than if you just see the score after.  I watched the entire OSU-Iowa game  but only watched the very end of the PSU-MSU game.  So my reaction was, huh, PSU loss on a last second FG on the road to MSU.   That's not a bad loss at all.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #37 on: November 07, 2017, 02:06:07 PM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 07, 2017, 01:55:04 PM
That was my reaction to anybody who still had OSU high after just getting pummeled by Iowa.    I think if you actaully watch the game, you have a different reaction than if you just see the score after.  I watched the entire OSU-Iowa game  but only watched the very end of the PSU-MSU game.  So my reaction was, huh, PSU loss on a last second FG on the road to MSU.   That's not a bad loss at all.
Greenstein from the Chicago Trib has OSU #2, MSU #3 and PSU #4.

He has Iowa at #7.

No word on when his last day is.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #38 on: November 07, 2017, 02:21:43 PM »
Who here thinks OSU would probably beat Wisconsin on a neutral field right now?  I mean more than a 50-50 probability.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2017, 02:22:38 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 07, 2017, 01:48:50 PM
The problem, at this point, is that every team has issues.  Arguing against each:
  • Wisconsin:  they only looked really impressive against Indiana and even that was only equal to Ohio State's performance and about the same as PSU's.  
Not to pile on Wisconsin, but I'm not even sure that this is true.  I didn't watch UW/IU so maybe they looked more dominant, but looking at the scores at times throughout the games Wisconsin seems a LOT less dominant than PSU and somewhat less dominant than tOSU:
Minutes to gotOSU leadPSU leadUW lead
550140
503210
45-428-7
40-121-3
35-1214
30-1144
25-1144
2061714
1514247
10212414
5212421
0283128
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LittlePig

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #40 on: November 07, 2017, 02:33:46 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2017, 02:21:43 PM
Who here thinks OSU would probably beat Wisconsin on a neutral field right now?  I mean more than a 50-50 probability.
OSU has some issues with its LB's that Greg Schiano and Bill Davis need to fix.  It does not matter if Wisconsin's WR is hurt.  Iowa showed you can beat OSU really only using the TE's and RB's.  OSU may get it fixed, but I am not sure if they fix it in 1 week.  Today on a neutral field, I would favor Wisconsin.  Of course, I am frequently wrong about these things.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #41 on: November 07, 2017, 02:54:44 PM »
My issue with Wisconsin isn't that I think they are terrible, it is just that I think we really have no idea.  They have only played one top-7 opponent and that resulted in a not-terribly-convincing nine point home win. Then in their five games against bottom-7 opposition they haven't been as dominant as PSU or tOSU.  It makes it hard to know what to do with them right now.  

Regular season games against top-7 opponents:
  • 5  Penn State, 4 on the road
  • 5  Michigan State, 3 on the road
  • 5  Iowa, 3 on the road
  • 4  Ohio State, 2 on the road
  • 4  Michigan, 2 on the road
  • 4  Northwestern, 1 on the road
  • 3  Wisconsin, 0 on the road

Games against top-7 opponents so far:
  • 5  Penn State, 3-2, 4 on the road
  • 4  Michigan State, 3-1, 2 on the road
  • 4  Northwestern, 2-2, 1 on the road
  • 4  Iowa, 1-3, 2 on the road
  • 2  Ohio State, 1-1, 1 on the road
  • 2  Michigan, 0-2, 1 on the road
  • 1  Wisconsin, 1-0, 0 on the road
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