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Topic: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings

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847badgerfan

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2017, 06:26:38 AM »
Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else?  Wisconsin?  Really?


Probably. Have to see about the injury list today. That could cause me to drop UW a bit.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

LittlePig

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2017, 08:21:45 AM »
Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else?  Wisconsin?  Really?


Did you watch the Iowa-OSU game?  OSU has some issues.  Wisconsin runs the same offense as Iowa, but better.

847badgerfan

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2017, 08:29:29 AM »
Did you watch the Iowa-OSU game?  OSU has some issues.  Wisconsin runs the same offense as Iowa, but better.
Nobody did. The West sucks.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

fezzador

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2017, 08:40:02 AM »
1) Wisconsin - here by default
2) Michigan State - looking like another Dantonio masterpiece of a season
3) Penn State - not out of the East hunt, but needs a lot of help
4) Ohio State - got seal-clubbed by a decent-but-not-elite Iowa, playoff hopes on life support
5) Iowa - beat tOSU like a red-headed stepchild; can they do it again @ Wisc?
6) Michigan - the defense is special, the offense is Special Ed
7) Northwestern - these Cats love them some OT
8) Nebraska - definitely better than they were in September, but probably not improved enough to save Riley's job
9) Purdue - OK, so Brohm isn't a miracle worker, but they're at least competitive against stronger teams and winning the winnable ones
10) Rutgers - suddenly they're 3-3 in conference play and 4-5 overall - the good news is that they play Indiana soon; the bad news is PSU and MSU will likely keep them from bowling
11) Maryland - roller coaster of a season, if they were more consistent they'd possibly be top 5 in the conference
12) Minnesota - well they have the Illinois win to hang their hat on, which is more than either the Illini or Hoosiers
13) Indiana - they're oh-fer in conference play, but at least they're usually somewhat competitive
14) Illinois - something tells me that Lovie just isn't working out.  It's hard not to want him to succeed, but that's the sad reality

ELA

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2017, 08:47:02 AM »
If anyone says they have any sort of handle on 2-7, they are lying

1. WISCONSIN
 (3) - sort of by default at this point
2. OHIO STATE (1) - everyone at the top has a clunker
3. MICHIGAN STATE (5) - they finally admitted they are a passing team
4. PENN STATE (2) - brutal three game stretch is behind them at least
5. IOWA (7) - this is the same team that put up 20 points TOTAL against MSU and Northwestern?
6. NORTHWESTERN (6) - the Iowa and MSU wins look better, but three straight OT wins?
7. MICHIGAN (4) - 7-2, but none of the 7 wins are against teams over .500, and only Purdue ranks in the top HALF (65) of the composite computer rankings
8. PURDUE (11) - much needed bounce back to keep bowl hopes on life suppor
9. RUTGERS (13) - how much do they want that EMU game back?  They'd be a win against Indiana away from bowl eligibility
10. MARYLAND (8) - still cannot figure them out at all (same status as last week)
11. NEBRASKA (10) - still fighting, but bowl hopes got dimmer with that one
12. INDIANA (9) - fading hard
13. MINNESOTA (12) - woefully ill equipped to play from behind
14. ILLINOIS (14) - woefully ill equipped to play football

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2017, 09:10:55 AM »
I've now had some time to think about it.  First, the clearest divide in the conference is between the top half and the bottom half.  In the rankings posted before mine, there is unanimous agreement that the top seven are composed of (alpha):
  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Michigan State
  • Northwestern
  • Ohio State
  • Penn State
  • Wisconsin
Those seven teams are 20-0 against the other seven.  So, throughout my ranking I will refer to record against the top-seven and record against the bottom-seven because there is a very clear divide between the two.  

  • Penn State:  The Nittany Lions have played five games against top-seven, more than any other top-7 team.  Additionally, Penn State played four of those games on the road.  They have two close losses on the road, a close win on the road, and two blow-out wins (one home, one away).  
  • Michigan State:  The Spartans have played four top-seven opponents and the results are two close wins at home, a close win on the road, and a close loss on the road.  
  • Wisconsin:  The Badgers have only played one top-seven opponent.  They beat Northwestern by nine at home.  
  • Iowa:  Against the top seven the Hawkeyes have a blowout home win, a close home loss, and two close road losses.  
  • Ohio State:  Against the top seven the Buckeyes have a close win at home and a blowout loss on the road.  The Buckeyes have been clearly the best against the bottom-seven but ultimately you don't win Championships by beating the crap out of hapless opponents, you win Championships by defeating relative equals.  
  • Michigan:  The Wolverines are 0-2 against the top-7 with a blowout road loss and a close home loss.  
  • Northwestern:  The Wildcats have two top-7 wins but both were at home in OT.  Then they have two top-7 losses one by nine points and the other a blowout.  
  • Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers may be 0-3 against the top-half of the conference but they are 3-0 against the bottom-half.  They are the best of the rest.  
  • Indiana:  The Hoosiers are still a hard team to place.  They are 0-6 but five of their losses were to top-7 opponents and no team down here has any wins against those so I'm not holding that against them.  They are 0-1 against the bottom-7 but the loss was competitive and on the road.  
  • Purdue:  The Boilermakers blew out the worst two teams in the league and had a few competitive losses to two bottom-seven opponents.  
  • Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights have made the most of their difficult situation.   
  • Maryland:  The Terps would likely be a top-7 team with their original lineup.   
  • Minnesota:  The Gophers beat Illinois but did it at home and are otherwise 0-season.  
  • Illinois:  The Illini have had plenty of opportunities with four games against bottom-seven teams but they are still 0-season.  

ELA

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2017, 09:20:29 AM »
That breakdown makes more sense than anything to me.

PortlandSpartan

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2017, 12:17:05 PM »
That breakdown makes more sense than anything to me.
Before reading it I was trying to find a way to make sense of my feeling that I still wanted to put PSU #1.  And it helps with the placement of UW and MSU - if MSU wins in Columbus, they should rightfully be above UW.  If UW beats Iowa and MSU loses, they should rightfully be above MSU.  Only issue I have is Michigan over Northwestern.  It's close, but OT wins are still wins.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2017, 01:13:15 PM »
Before reading it I was trying to find a way to make sense of my feeling that I still wanted to put PSU #1.  And it helps with the placement of UW and MSU - if MSU wins in Columbus, they should rightfully be above UW.  If UW beats Iowa and MSU loses, they should rightfully be above MSU.  Only issue I have is Michigan over Northwestern.  It's close, but OT wins are still wins.
In my view #1 through #7 are so unclear to me that any of those teams could end up in nearly any of those spots after this weekend. 

Michigan/Northwestern was one of the closest calls to me.  Looking at the top-7 it was pretty clear to me that those two teams were last (ie, 6th and 7th).  

There isn't much in the way of common opponents.  They both played MSU close at home (OT win for NU, 4 point loss for M).  They both got blown out by PSU but M's was on the road.  I just think Michigan is a bit stronger.  They have convincing wins over PU (18 points on the road), Rutgers (21 at home), and Minnesota (23 at home).  Both teams also have an OT win over a bottom-7 team (UNL for PU, IU for M).  They'll pick up two more common opponents this weekend as:
  • Michigan travels to Maryland (NU beat Maryland by 16 on the road).  
  • Northwestern hosts Purdue (M beat Purdue by 18 on the road).  
« Last Edit: November 06, 2017, 01:15:25 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

MichiFan87

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2017, 07:51:17 PM »
1. Wisconsin - Weak schedule but still undefeated
2. Michigan State - 
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Ohio State - Two blowout losses now....
6. Northwestern - 3 straight OT wins, FWIW
7. Iowa - Too inconsistent to be ranked higher
8. Nebraska - Still better than the rest
9. Rutgers - Have to give them credit for beating the teams below them.
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
12. Maryland
13. Minnesota - Seeing them in person, they look pretty bad
14. Illinois
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2017, 08:34:13 PM »
Not surprisingly the rankings on BTN make the most sense to me in a weird year:

http://btn.com/2017/11/05/big-ten-power-rankings-perfect-wisconsin-claims-top-spot-in-post-week-10-list/

1. Wisconsin (9-0, 6-0). Another week, another methodical win for the Badgers, who are 9-0 for the first time since 2004. Now, the heavy lifting begins.
Last week: 3
Up next: Iowa

2. Michigan State (7-2, 5-1). The Spartans continue to show that last year’s 3-9 mark was a mirage, as we watch QB Brian Lewerke become a star.
Last week: 5
Up next: at Ohio State

3. Ohio State (7-2, 5-1). All those questions after the 33-16 loss to Oklahoma are back after a 55-24 evisceration at Iowa.
Last week: 1
Up next: Michigan State

4. Penn State (7-2, 4-2). Those national title and Big Ten championship dreams are toast after dropping consecutive games by a total of four points.
Last week: 2
Up next: Rutgers

5. Northwestern (6-3, 4-2). Three overtime games in a row—three wins in a row. No one has more mojo, as the Wildcats are hitting their stride.
Last week: 4
Up next: Purdue

6. Iowa (6-3, 3-3). Another year, another major upset for the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium. How good is QB Nate Stanley going to be? Dang good.
Last week: 7
Up next: at Wisconsin

7. Michigan (7-2, 4-2). The thumping of Minnesota helped new QB Brandon Peters continue to develop for a big stretch run.
Last week: 6
Up next: at Maryland
8. Rutgers (4-5, 3-3). Chris Ash is making progress in Piscataway, as the Scarlet Knights now have three Big Ten wins, and have done it in the last four weeks.
Last week: 10
Up next: at Penn State

9. Nebraska (4-5, 3-3). The defense continues to get gashed on the ground in what is looking more and more like a lost season.
Last week: 8
Up next: at Minnesota

10. Purdue (4-5, 2-4). The Boilermakers ended a three-game slide. Few coaching staffs have squeezed more out of less than Purdue.
Last week: 13
Up next: at Northwestern

11. Maryland (4-5, 2-4). That’s four losses in five games for the Terrapins, who had to use their fourth-string QB this week. It’s been that type of year.
Last week: 9
Up next: Michigan

12. Indiana (3-6, 0-6). The Hoosiers are still looking for their first Big Ten win. But IU does have a shot to win out (at Illinois; Rutgers; at Purdue).
Last week: 11
Up next: at Illinois

13. Minnesota (4-5, 1-5). Struggles on offense continue to haunt the Golden Gophers. Will this team win again?
Last week: 12
Up next: Nebraska

14. Illinois (2-7, 0-6). Too many injuries, too much youth … you know where this is going.
Last week: 14
Up next: Indiana
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2017, 08:57:38 PM »
I THINK the lines would have OSU/PSU/MSU all favored over Wisky in Indy by 3-4-5 points.

I don't know what to make of Ohio State right now though.  They had me believing.  

Of course, if OSU played Iowa tomorrow, I think OSU would be favored also.

I realize the lines are not everything, but I'd take all three over Wisconsin in what probably would be an "ugly" game.
well, a 5 point spread on a neutral field isn't a huge vote of confidence.
Yes, I'd put the Badgers over the others right now.  Maybe not impressive, but have not laid an egg yet this season.
this doesn't imply I think I know anymore than anyone else
1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio St.
3. Penn St.
4. Michigan st.
5. Iowa - very impressive vs the Bucks
6. Michigan
7. Northwestern - king of OT
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10.  Indiana
11. Rutgers
12. Maryland
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2017, 09:07:42 PM »
In my view #1 through #7 are so unclear to me that any of those teams could end up in nearly any of those spots after this weekend.

Michigan/Northwestern was one of the closest calls to me.  Looking at the top-7 it was pretty clear to me that those two teams were last (ie, 6th and 7th).  

There isn't much in the way of common opponents.  They both played MSU close at home (OT win for NU, 4 point loss for M).  They both got blown out by PSU but M's was on the road.  I just think Michigan is a bit stronger.  They have convincing wins over PU (18 points on the road), Rutgers (21 at home), and Minnesota (23 at home).  Both teams also have an OT win over a bottom-7 team (UNL for PU, IU for M).  They'll pick up two more common opponents this weekend as:
  • Michigan travels to Maryland (NU beat Maryland by 16 on the road).  
  • Northwestern hosts Purdue (M beat Purdue by 18 on the road).  

I like your breakdown, but agree with PortlandSpartan based on your logic with regards to OSU. 

If OSU's monster blowouts are disregarded for being against bottom-seven opponents, then it stands to reason that Michigan can't use smaller blowouts against bottom-seven teams as a means of pole-vaulting ahead of a team with two overtime wins over top-seven teams.
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ELA

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Re: Week 10 HorsePower Rankings
« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2017, 10:14:59 PM »
Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else?  Wisconsin?  Really?


I don't think we ever established a firm rule on these.  I've never abided by one.  To me it's some mix of eyeball test, results and recency bias, with inconsistent weight applied week to week.

 

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