CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on November 05, 2017, 06:27:07 AM
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1. Wisconsin (Beat Indiana 45-17, next up Iowa) Slow and steady wins the race. Actually got to watch them for the first time this year, and I liked what I saw. The offensive line looked confident, Taylor is a beast at running back, and Hornibrook looks much stronger in the pocket. The defense is fine. Now they face perhaps the toughest test of their season.
2. Michigan State (beat Penn State 27-24, next up @Ohio State) The new MSU grinds out wins by throwing the ball 56 times. Suddenly in great position to win the B1G-E with a win over the Buckeyes. They are still struggling running the ball though.
3. Penn State (Lost to MSU 27-24, next up Rutgers) Through the meat of their schedule. I haven't looked at the tiebreakers, but a good shot that 4 teams have 1 loss in the B1G-E. Then what?
4. Iowa (Beat Iowa 55-24, next @Wisconsin) Good ole reliable Iowa suddenly became Team Chaos Iowa. My reality is shattered. Can they keep the chaos going next week?
5. Michigan (Beat Minnesota 33-10, next up @Maryland) Really getting the running game going. A Michigan that runs the ball, plays defense, and throws somewhat efficiently can win out.
6. Ohio State (Lost to Iowa 55-24, next up MSU) Hard to place them now. Defense looked like it had never seen the I-formation. Not great when now facing MSU and Michigan.
7. Northwestern (Beat Nebraska 31-24, next up Purdue) Another solid OT win. Seems like they should be higher with wins over Iowa and MSU, but don't have those teams' big wins.
8. Purdue (Beat Illinois 29-10, next up @Northwestern) Playing Illinois will get you right. Now need to pull out the stops to get to bowl eligibility and need a win next week.
9. Nebraska (Lost to Northwestern 31-24, next up @Minnesota) Competitive but you don't want to face the Wildcats in OT.
10. Minnesota (Lost to Michigan 33-10, next up Nebraska) Overmatched, but rowing the boat.
11. Indiana (Lost to Wisconsin 45-17, next up at Illinois) I see some speed bumps on them, but now they get Illinois for a shot at an actual B1G win.
12. Rutgers (Beat Maryland 31-24, next up @PSU) It's all gravy for the Scarlet Knights, who are officially not the worst team in the Big Ten.
13. Maryland (Lot to Rutgers 31-24, next up Michigan) They aren't going to get right against Michigan.
14. Illinois (Lost to Purdue 29-10, next up Indiana) Nope
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1. Michigan State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Iowa
5. Ohio State
6. Michigan
7. Northwestern
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Rutgers
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
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For me the toughest team to place here is Northwestern. I just don't get this team at all.
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Wisconsin
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Iowa
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
Minnesota
Rutgers
Maryland
Nebraska
Illinois
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For me the toughest team to place here is Northwestern. I just don't get this team at all.
This week might be the most confused I have ever been about these power rankings.
Two weeks ago I thought Penn State was a pretty obvious #1. Since then the Nittany Lions are 0-2. It would be simple to move the teams that beat them up but those two teams each lost their other game in the last two weeks. That does two things:
- It makes Penn State's losses look even worse, and
- It makes those two teams' rankings very suspect.
At this point I think Wisconsin is #1. They finally looked like #1 against Indiana and everybody else has cleared the way for them. After that though, I just don't know. As I see it there are five teams with an argument for #2 and I'll decide between them later:
- Ohio State: For: Blowout wins over bad teams, win over PSU; Against: Blowout loss to Iowa, barely beat Penn State.
- Michigan State: For: Wins over PSU and M; Against: Loss to NU, relatively close wins over MN and IU.
- Penn State: For: Both losses were competitive and to good teams, blowout wins over NU, M, and IU; Against: two losses.
- Northwestern: For: Wins over Iowa and MSU, close loss to UW; Against: blowout loss to PSU, three wins in OT.
- Iowa: For: Blowout win over tOSU, all three losses were competitive and to other teams in the mix; Against: three losses and barely beat Minnesota.
You could put those five teams in any order and I wouldn't have much of an objection.
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I was afraid after last week, something like this might happen. OSU and PSU both have flaws that have taken them out of the CFP race. Oh well, theBig Ten still has Wisconsin.
1. Wisc
By default
2. PSU
Blowout wins over NW, Mich. Close losses @OSU, @MSU
3. MSU
Wins against PSU, Mich, Iowa
4. Iowa
Close losses to PSU, MSU, NW. Close win @ Iowa State.
Ok seriously, where did THAT Iowa team come from that blew out OSU 55-24? This is the same team that barely beat Minn 17-10 the week before and routinely plays 17-10 games. A 21-pt dog that beat Ohio State by 31 points! It has to be one of the mist bizzare upsets in Big Ten history! Do you write it off as a fluke or a sign of how the teams are trending? Time will tell.
5. NW
What to do with NW? 3 straight OT wins in 3 weeks. They could easily be 1-5 instead of 4-2. Blowout loss to PSU. You don"t want to put them too high or too low, but want to give them credit for pulling out tough games.
6. OSU
Was OSU expised? Big victories over bad teams. Close win at home over PSU. Bad losses to oklahoma and Iowa. Iowa loss may be a fluke, but it was so awful you can't just ignore it. They just have to take a hit in the power rankings after that stinker.
7. Mich
Good enough to bear the bad teams. Blowout loss to PSU keeps it down.
8. Neb
This team may not be one of the top teams, but they aren't bad either.
9. Pur
10. Indy
11. Rut
12. MD
13. MINN
14. ILL
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Ok seriously, where did THAT Iowa team come from that blew out OSU 55-24? This is the same team that barely beat Minn 17-10 the week before and routinely plays 17-10 games. A 21-pt dog that beat Ohio State by 31 points! It has to be one of the mist bizzare upsets in Big Ten history! Do you write it off as a fluke or a sign of how the teams are trending? Time will tell.
Same question that I have and you came up with the same answer: If Wisconsin and Ohio State win next weekend then I think I'll treat the Iowa/Ohio State result as just one of those things. Crazy upsets happen but are not necessarily indicative of how good teams are. On the other hand, if Iowa and Michigan State win next weekend then I'll probably move Iowa to #1 and put Ohio State down around #5-6.
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The Beasts of the Big Ten
Wisconsin - Clear cut number one right now
Northwestern - Just as good a case as anyone else, so wth.
Iowa - Was that performance something else or what?
Michigan State - now that some of the shine has been knocked off of the B1G East, it is starting to feel like one of those seasons where Dantonio sneaks in there and takes it.
The Fallen Helmets
Ohio State - got pantsed, but better than the rest.
Penn State - Two losses drops them in the pecking order
Michigan - worst of the "decent" teams.
Nebraska - best of the "bad" teams.
Basketball Season!
Rutgers - They lost to the teams higher than this, and have beaten the teams lower than this. So they fit snugly atop the scrap heap.
Maryland - Beat Minnesota and Indiana, lost to Rutgers
Indiana - Sorry Hoosiers. After the Maryland loss, it's starting to look like your record is a lot more indicative of your team than was initially thought.
Purdue - They beat Minnesota and Illinois
Minnesota - They beat Illinois
Illinois - They are Illinois
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Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else? Wisconsin? Really?
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Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else? Wisconsin? Really?
What teams would you currently favor over Wisconsin in, say, Indianapolis?
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I THINK the lines would have OSU/PSU/MSU all favored over Wisky in Indy by 3-4-5 points.
I don't know what to make of Ohio State right now though. They had me believing.
Of course, if OSU played Iowa tomorrow, I think OSU would be favored also.
I realize the lines are not everything, but I'd take all three over Wisconsin in what probably would be an "ugly" game.
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I THINK the lines would have OSU/PSU/MSU all favored over Wisky in Indy by 3-4-5 points.
I don't know what to make of Ohio State right now though. They had me believing.
Of course, if OSU played Iowa tomorrow, I think OSU would be favored also.
I realize the lines are not everything, but I'd take all three over Wisconsin in what probably would be an "ugly" game.
Agree. I'd take all three of them on a neutral field.
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3. I haven't looked at the tiebreakers, but a good shot that 4 teams have 1 loss in the B1G-E. Then what?
That is not mathematically possible this season because all teams except MSU and tOSU already have two. A four-way tie at 8-1 isn't mathematically possible anyway because only three teams can go 1-1 against each other.
I assume you meant four teams at 7-2. That is possible if:
- Penn State wins out (vRU, vUNL, @UMD)
- Michigan wins out (@UMD, @UW, vtOSU)
- Ohio State beats MSU and Illinois.
- Michigan State otherwise wins out (vUMD, @RU)
Ohio State wins that tie because the Buckeyes would be 2-1 in the H2H2H2H (wins over PSU and MSU, loss to Michigan). MSU would also be 2-1 (wins over M and PSU, loss to tOSU). PSU and M would each be 1-2. That H2H2H2H would thus eliminate the Wolverines and Nittany Lions leaving it between the Buckeyes and Spartans and Ohio State wins based on H2H.
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1. Michigan State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Iowa
5. Ohio State
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Minnesota
11. Rutgers
12. Indiana
13. Maryland
14. Illinois
As for Medina's contentions, I agree this is difficult. I would say that this week's rivalry game in Madison will settle a lot of things, one way or the other. These two teams have a tradition over the past dozen years of doing well in the other's home stadium. There is no home team advantage discernible. It will be all on motivation, talent, and coaching.
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Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else? Wisconsin? Really?
Probably. Have to see about the injury list today. That could cause me to drop UW a bit.
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Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else? Wisconsin? Really?
Did you watch the Iowa-OSU game? OSU has some issues. Wisconsin runs the same offense as Iowa, but better.
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Did you watch the Iowa-OSU game? OSU has some issues. Wisconsin runs the same offense as Iowa, but better.
Nobody did. The West sucks.
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1) Wisconsin - here by default
2) Michigan State - looking like another Dantonio masterpiece of a season
3) Penn State - not out of the East hunt, but needs a lot of help
4) Ohio State - got seal-clubbed by a decent-but-not-elite Iowa, playoff hopes on life support
5) Iowa - beat tOSU like a red-headed stepchild; can they do it again @ Wisc?
6) Michigan - the defense is special, the offense is Special Ed
7) Northwestern - these Cats love them some OT
8) Nebraska - definitely better than they were in September, but probably not improved enough to save Riley's job
9) Purdue - OK, so Brohm isn't a miracle worker, but they're at least competitive against stronger teams and winning the winnable ones
10) Rutgers - suddenly they're 3-3 in conference play and 4-5 overall - the good news is that they play Indiana soon; the bad news is PSU and MSU will likely keep them from bowling
11) Maryland - roller coaster of a season, if they were more consistent they'd possibly be top 5 in the conference
12) Minnesota - well they have the Illinois win to hang their hat on, which is more than either the Illini or Hoosiers
13) Indiana - they're oh-fer in conference play, but at least they're usually somewhat competitive
14) Illinois - something tells me that Lovie just isn't working out. It's hard not to want him to succeed, but that's the sad reality
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If anyone says they have any sort of handle on 2-7, they are lying
1. WISCONSIN (3) - sort of by default at this point
2. OHIO STATE (1) - everyone at the top has a clunker
3. MICHIGAN STATE (5) - they finally admitted they are a passing team
4. PENN STATE (2) - brutal three game stretch is behind them at least
5. IOWA (7) - this is the same team that put up 20 points TOTAL against MSU and Northwestern?
6. NORTHWESTERN (6) - the Iowa and MSU wins look better, but three straight OT wins?
7. MICHIGAN (4) - 7-2, but none of the 7 wins are against teams over .500, and only Purdue ranks in the top HALF (65) of the composite computer rankings
8. PURDUE (11) - much needed bounce back to keep bowl hopes on life suppor
9. RUTGERS (13) - how much do they want that EMU game back? They'd be a win against Indiana away from bowl eligibility
10. MARYLAND (8) - still cannot figure them out at all (same status as last week)
11. NEBRASKA (10) - still fighting, but bowl hopes got dimmer with that one
12. INDIANA (9) - fading hard
13. MINNESOTA (12) - woefully ill equipped to play from behind
14. ILLINOIS (14) - woefully ill equipped to play football
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I've now had some time to think about it. First, the clearest divide in the conference is between the top half and the bottom half. In the rankings posted before mine, there is unanimous agreement that the top seven are composed of (alpha):
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Northwestern
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Wisconsin
Those seven teams are 20-0 against the other seven. So, throughout my ranking I will refer to record against the top-seven and record against the bottom-seven because there is a very clear divide between the two.
- Penn State: The Nittany Lions have played five games against top-seven, more than any other top-7 team. Additionally, Penn State played four of those games on the road. They have two close losses on the road, a close win on the road, and two blow-out wins (one home, one away).
- Michigan State: The Spartans have played four top-seven opponents and the results are two close wins at home, a close win on the road, and a close loss on the road.
- Wisconsin: The Badgers have only played one top-seven opponent. They beat Northwestern by nine at home.
- Iowa: Against the top seven the Hawkeyes have a blowout home win, a close home loss, and two close road losses.
- Ohio State: Against the top seven the Buckeyes have a close win at home and a blowout loss on the road. The Buckeyes have been clearly the best against the bottom-seven but ultimately you don't win Championships by beating the crap out of hapless opponents, you win Championships by defeating relative equals.
- Michigan: The Wolverines are 0-2 against the top-7 with a blowout road loss and a close home loss.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats have two top-7 wins but both were at home in OT. Then they have two top-7 losses one by nine points and the other a blowout.
- Nebraska: The Cornhuskers may be 0-3 against the top-half of the conference but they are 3-0 against the bottom-half. They are the best of the rest.
- Indiana: The Hoosiers are still a hard team to place. They are 0-6 but five of their losses were to top-7 opponents and no team down here has any wins against those so I'm not holding that against them. They are 0-1 against the bottom-7 but the loss was competitive and on the road.
- Purdue: The Boilermakers blew out the worst two teams in the league and had a few competitive losses to two bottom-seven opponents.
- Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights have made the most of their difficult situation.
- Maryland: The Terps would likely be a top-7 team with their original lineup.
- Minnesota: The Gophers beat Illinois but did it at home and are otherwise 0-season.
- Illinois: The Illini have had plenty of opportunities with four games against bottom-seven teams but they are still 0-season.
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That breakdown makes more sense than anything to me.
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That breakdown makes more sense than anything to me.
Before reading it I was trying to find a way to make sense of my feeling that I still wanted to put PSU #1. And it helps with the placement of UW and MSU - if MSU wins in Columbus, they should rightfully be above UW. If UW beats Iowa and MSU loses, they should rightfully be above MSU. Only issue I have is Michigan over Northwestern. It's close, but OT wins are still wins.
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Before reading it I was trying to find a way to make sense of my feeling that I still wanted to put PSU #1. And it helps with the placement of UW and MSU - if MSU wins in Columbus, they should rightfully be above UW. If UW beats Iowa and MSU loses, they should rightfully be above MSU. Only issue I have is Michigan over Northwestern. It's close, but OT wins are still wins.
In my view #1 through #7 are so unclear to me that any of those teams could end up in nearly any of those spots after this weekend.
Michigan/Northwestern was one of the closest calls to me. Looking at the top-7 it was pretty clear to me that those two teams were last (ie, 6th and 7th).
There isn't much in the way of common opponents. They both played MSU close at home (OT win for NU, 4 point loss for M). They both got blown out by PSU but M's was on the road. I just think Michigan is a bit stronger. They have convincing wins over PU (18 points on the road), Rutgers (21 at home), and Minnesota (23 at home). Both teams also have an OT win over a bottom-7 team (UNL for PU, IU for M). They'll pick up two more common opponents this weekend as:
- Michigan travels to Maryland (NU beat Maryland by 16 on the road).
- Northwestern hosts Purdue (M beat Purdue by 18 on the road).
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1. Wisconsin - Weak schedule but still undefeated
2. Michigan State -
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Ohio State - Two blowout losses now....
6. Northwestern - 3 straight OT wins, FWIW
7. Iowa - Too inconsistent to be ranked higher
8. Nebraska - Still better than the rest
9. Rutgers - Have to give them credit for beating the teams below them.
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
12. Maryland
13. Minnesota - Seeing them in person, they look pretty bad
14. Illinois
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Not surprisingly the rankings on BTN make the most sense to me in a weird year:
http://btn.com/2017/11/05/big-ten-power-rankings-perfect-wisconsin-claims-top-spot-in-post-week-10-list/
1. Wisconsin (http://video.btn.com/wisconsin-badgers) (9-0, 6-0). Another week, another methodical win for the Badgers, who are 9-0 for the first time since 2004. Now, the heavy lifting begins.
Last week: 3
Up next: Iowa
2. Michigan State (http://video.btn.com/michigan-state-spartans) (7-2, 5-1). The Spartans continue to show that last year’s 3-9 mark was a mirage, as we watch QB Brian Lewerke become a star.
Last week: 5
Up next: at Ohio State
3. Ohio State (http://video.btn.com/ohio-state-buckeyes) (7-2, 5-1). All those questions after the 33-16 loss to Oklahoma are back after a 55-24 evisceration at Iowa.
Last week: 1
Up next: Michigan State
4. Penn State (http://video.btn.com/penn-state-nittany-lions) (7-2, 4-2). Those national title and Big Ten championship dreams are toast after dropping consecutive games by a total of four points.
Last week: 2
Up next: Rutgers
5. Northwestern (http://video.btn.com/northwestern-wildcats) (6-3, 4-2). Three overtime games in a row—three wins in a row. No one has more mojo, as the Wildcats are hitting their stride.
Last week: 4
Up next: Purdue
6. Iowa (http://video.btn.com/iowa-hawkeyes) (6-3, 3-3). Another year, another major upset for the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium. How good is QB Nate Stanley going to be? Dang good.
Last week: 7
Up next: at Wisconsin
7. Michigan (http://video.btn.com/michigan-wolverines) (7-2, 4-2). The thumping of Minnesota helped new QB Brandon Peters continue to develop for a big stretch run.
Last week: 6
Up next: at Maryland
8. Rutgers (http://video.btn.com/rutgers-scarlet-knights) (4-5, 3-3). Chris Ash is making progress in Piscataway, as the Scarlet Knights now have three Big Ten wins, and have done it in the last four weeks.
Last week: 10
Up next: at Penn State
9. Nebraska (http://video.btn.com/nebraska-cornhuskers) (4-5, 3-3). The defense continues to get gashed on the ground in what is looking more and more like a lost season.
Last week: 8
Up next: at Minnesota
10. Purdue (http://video.btn.com/purdue-boilermakers) (4-5, 2-4). The Boilermakers ended a three-game slide. Few coaching staffs have squeezed more out of less than Purdue.
Last week: 13
Up next: at Northwestern
11. Maryland (http://video.btn.com/maryland-terrapins) (4-5, 2-4). That’s four losses in five games for the Terrapins, who had to use their fourth-string QB this week. It’s been that type of year.
Last week: 9
Up next: Michigan
12. Indiana (http://video.btn.com/indiana-hoosiers) (3-6, 0-6). The Hoosiers are still looking for their first Big Ten win. But IU does have a shot to win out (at Illinois; Rutgers; at Purdue).
Last week: 11
Up next: at Illinois
13. Minnesota (http://video.btn.com/minnesota-golden-gophers) (4-5, 1-5). Struggles on offense continue to haunt the Golden Gophers. Will this team win again?
Last week: 12
Up next: Nebraska
14. Illinois (http://video.btn.com/illinois-fighting-illini) (2-7, 0-6). Too many injuries, too much youth … you know where this is going.
Last week: 14
Up next: Indiana
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I THINK the lines would have OSU/PSU/MSU all favored over Wisky in Indy by 3-4-5 points.
I don't know what to make of Ohio State right now though. They had me believing.
Of course, if OSU played Iowa tomorrow, I think OSU would be favored also.
I realize the lines are not everything, but I'd take all three over Wisconsin in what probably would be an "ugly" game.
well, a 5 point spread on a neutral field isn't a huge vote of confidence.
Yes, I'd put the Badgers over the others right now. Maybe not impressive, but have not laid an egg yet this season.
this doesn't imply I think I know anymore than anyone else
1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio St.
3. Penn St.
4. Michigan st.
5. Iowa - very impressive vs the Bucks
6. Michigan
7. Northwestern - king of OT
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Rutgers
12. Maryland
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
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In my view #1 through #7 are so unclear to me that any of those teams could end up in nearly any of those spots after this weekend.
Michigan/Northwestern was one of the closest calls to me. Looking at the top-7 it was pretty clear to me that those two teams were last (ie, 6th and 7th).
There isn't much in the way of common opponents. They both played MSU close at home (OT win for NU, 4 point loss for M). They both got blown out by PSU but M's was on the road. I just think Michigan is a bit stronger. They have convincing wins over PU (18 points on the road), Rutgers (21 at home), and Minnesota (23 at home). Both teams also have an OT win over a bottom-7 team (UNL for PU, IU for M). They'll pick up two more common opponents this weekend as:
- Michigan travels to Maryland (NU beat Maryland by 16 on the road).
- Northwestern hosts Purdue (M beat Purdue by 18 on the road).
I like your breakdown, but agree with PortlandSpartan based on your logic with regards to OSU.
If OSU's monster blowouts are disregarded for being against bottom-seven opponents, then it stands to reason that Michigan can't use smaller blowouts against bottom-seven teams as a means of pole-vaulting ahead of a team with two overtime wins over top-seven teams.
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Who would you favor on neutral ground right now over everyone else? Wisconsin? Really?
I don't think we ever established a firm rule on these. I've never abided by one. To me it's some mix of eyeball test, results and recency bias, with inconsistent weight applied week to week.
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I like your breakdown, but agree with PortlandSpartan based on your logic with regards to OSU.
If OSU's monster blowouts are disregarded for being against bottom-seven opponents, then it stands to reason that Michigan can't use smaller blowouts against bottom-seven teams as a means of pole-vaulting ahead of a team with two overtime wins over top-seven teams.
FWIW: I don't totally disregard Ohio State's monster blowouts against bottom-seven opponents, I just treat them as MUCH less relevant than their performance against the relative equals in the top-7. Basically, a tiebreaker. In regard to Michigan and Northwestern, they are close enough to me that the tiebreaker of performance against the bottom-7 is the deciding factor.
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I don't think we ever established a firm rule on these. I've never abided by one. To me it's some mix of eyeball test, results and recency bias, with inconsistent weight applied week to week.
I basically agree with this. On the recency bias I weight that more heavily if a recent injury has eliminated a major contributor because I think that "Power Rankings" means power right now.
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I basically agree with this. On the recency bias I weight that more heavily if a recent injury has eliminated a major contributor because I think that "Power Rankings" means power right now.
Yep, this is where I'm at.
UW just lost its best receiver and if I were to do new rankings I would drop UW right now as a result. Instead, I will wait until Saturday's outcomes to re-evaluate my rankings. I want to see how they do without that kid, and also without yet another starting linebacker.
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Of course if you throw out the performance against the bottom 7 entirely, and only consider games against the top 7, you could argue that OSU and Mich should be #6 and #7.
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I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State. They looked terrible last week. Did no one actually watch any of the game?
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I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State. They looked terrible last week. Did no one actually watch any of the game?
They couldn't've possible looked as terrible as OSU vs Iowa. Or Michigan vs Penn St. Or zzzzzzzzz... What was the question?
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IF you think OSU would beat whoever neutral field probably, then OSU should be #1, no matter their Iowa game.
Who are you going to believe, me or your lyin' eyes?
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I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State. They looked terrible last week. Did no one actually watch any of the game?
The problem, at this point, is that every team has issues. Arguing against each:
- Wisconsin: They may be 9-0 but they have only played one top-7 opponent and their win in that game was only a nine point home win over Northwestern. In their games against the bottom-7 they only looked really impressive against Indiana and even that was only equal to Ohio State's performance and about the same as PSU's.
- Michigan State: They are 3-1 against the top-7 but all three wins were close and two of them were at home.
- Penn State: They have two losses.
- Iowa: The win over Ohio State was great but they are still only 1-3 against the top-7 and barely beat Minnesota.
- Ohio State: Looks great against the cupcakes, barely won at home against PSU and got blown out on the road against Iowa.
- Northwestern: They are 2-2 against the top-7 but both wins were in OT at home while the losses were by nine on the road and a blowout at home.
- Michigan: 0-2 against the top-7 with a blowout loss on the road and a home loss.
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I'm a bit surprised at how high y'all are still ranking Penn State. They looked terrible last week. Did no one actually watch any of the game?
That was my reaction to anybody who still had OSU high after just getting pummeled by Iowa. I think if you actaully watch the game, you have a different reaction than if you just see the score after. I watched the entire OSU-Iowa game but only watched the very end of the PSU-MSU game. So my reaction was, huh, PSU loss on a last second FG on the road to MSU. That's not a bad loss at all.
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That was my reaction to anybody who still had OSU high after just getting pummeled by Iowa. I think if you actaully watch the game, you have a different reaction than if you just see the score after. I watched the entire OSU-Iowa game but only watched the very end of the PSU-MSU game. So my reaction was, huh, PSU loss on a last second FG on the road to MSU. That's not a bad loss at all.
Greenstein from the Chicago Trib has OSU #2, MSU #3 and PSU #4.
He has Iowa at #7.
No word on when his last day is.
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Who here thinks OSU would probably beat Wisconsin on a neutral field right now? I mean more than a 50-50 probability.
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The problem, at this point, is that every team has issues. Arguing against each:
- Wisconsin: they only looked really impressive against Indiana and even that was only equal to Ohio State's performance and about the same as PSU's.
Not to pile on Wisconsin, but I'm not even sure that this is true. I didn't watch UW/IU so maybe they looked more dominant, but looking at the scores at times throughout the games Wisconsin seems a LOT less dominant than PSU and somewhat less dominant than tOSU:
| Minutes to go | tOSU lead | PSU lead | UW lead |
| 55 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 50 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| 45 | -4 | 28 | -7 |
| 40 | -1 | 21 | -3 |
| 35 | -1 | 21 | 4 |
| 30 | -1 | 14 | 4 |
| 25 | -1 | 14 | 4 |
| 20 | 6 | 17 | 14 |
| 15 | 14 | 24 | 7 |
| 10 | 21 | 24 | 14 |
| 5 | 21 | 24 | 21 |
| 0 | 28 | 31 | 28 |
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Who here thinks OSU would probably beat Wisconsin on a neutral field right now? I mean more than a 50-50 probability.
OSU has some issues with its LB's that Greg Schiano and Bill Davis need to fix. It does not matter if Wisconsin's WR is hurt. Iowa showed you can beat OSU really only using the TE's and RB's. OSU may get it fixed, but I am not sure if they fix it in 1 week. Today on a neutral field, I would favor Wisconsin. Of course, I am frequently wrong about these things.
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My issue with Wisconsin isn't that I think they are terrible, it is just that I think we really have no idea. They have only played one top-7 opponent and that resulted in a not-terribly-convincing nine point home win. Then in their five games against bottom-7 opposition they haven't been as dominant as PSU or tOSU. It makes it hard to know what to do with them right now.
Regular season games against top-7 opponents:
- 5 Penn State, 4 on the road
- 5 Michigan State, 3 on the road
- 5 Iowa, 3 on the road
- 4 Ohio State, 2 on the road
- 4 Michigan, 2 on the road
- 4 Northwestern, 1 on the road
- 3 Wisconsin, 0 on the road
Games against top-7 opponents so far:
- 5 Penn State, 3-2, 4 on the road
- 4 Michigan State, 3-1, 2 on the road
- 4 Northwestern, 2-2, 1 on the road
- 4 Iowa, 1-3, 2 on the road
- 2 Ohio State, 1-1, 1 on the road
- 2 Michigan, 0-2, 1 on the road
- 1 Wisconsin, 1-0, 0 on the road
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I'm not claiming OSU would beat Wisconsin 6 times out of 10, only that if YOU think they would, they should be ahead of them in any "power ranking".
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Road games against good teams are hard. Top-7 road records against the top-7:
- 2-2 Penn State
- 1-1 Michigan State
- 0-1 Ohio State
- 0-1 Northwestern
- 0-1 Michigan
- 0-2 Iowa
- 0-0 Wisconsin
Notably, road losses to top-7 teams account for all of the conference losses by Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State.
Wisconsin's four conference road games this year are against:
- #8 Nebraska - won by 21 but tOSU won in Lincoln by 42
- #11 Indiana - won by 28 but so did tOSU
- #13 Minnesota - 11/25
- #14 Illinois - won by 14 but Nebraska won there by 22 and even Rutgers won there by 11
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Who here thinks OSU would probably beat Wisconsin on a neutral field right now? I mean more than a 50-50 probability.
<<raises hand to ask question>>
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New CFP Rankings have 6 Big Ten teams in top 25.
8. WISC
12. MSU
13. OSU
14. PSU
20. Iowa
25. NW
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Week 10 composite computer rankings (102 computers - last week in parentheses)
1. Georgia (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. Notre Dame (3)
4. Clemson (6)
5. WISCONSIN (7)
6. PENN STATE (4)
7. Miami (11)
8. Oklahoma (9)
9. Central Florida (8)
10. TCU (10)
11. OHIO STATE (5)
12. Washington (13)
13. USC (15)
14. Auburn (17)
15. MICHIGAN STATE (21)
16. Oklahoma State (12)
17. Virginia Tech (14)
18. IOWA (-)
19. MICHIGAN (20)
20. Mississippi State (16)
21. Washington State (24)
22. Memphis (23)
23. Iowa State (18)
24. NC State (19)
25. Stanford (22)
27. Northwestern (30)
55. Purdue (65)
61. Nebraska (54)
66. Maryland (51)
71. Minnesota (68)
74. Indiana (67)
81. Rutgers (89)
105. Illinois (105)
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Only 11 votes but here are the results:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| UW | 1.45 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.58 | 3 | 1.13 | 2 |
| MSU | 2.36 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4.67 | 4 | 2.30 | 2 |
| PSU | 3.09 | 3 | 1.30 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2.17 | 2 | (0.92) | -1 |
| tOSU | 4.36 | 4 | 1.43 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1.25 | 1 | (3.11) | -3 |
| Iowa | 4.64 | 5 | 1.12 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6.83 | 7 | 2.20 | 2 |
| M | 6.00 | 6 | 1.00 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5.67 | 6 | (0.33) | 0 |
| NU | 6.09 | 7 | 1.51 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 5.08 | 5 | (1.01) | -2 |
| UNL | 8.82 | 8 | 1.66 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 9.17 | 9 | 0.35 | 1 |
| PU | 9.27 | 9 | 1.10 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 11.50 | 11 | 2.23 | 2 |
| RU | 10.36 | 10 | 1.03 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 12.42 | 13 | 2.05 | 3 |
| IU | 10.82 | 11 | 1.47 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 9.33 | 10 | (1.48) | -1 |
| MD | 11.64 | 12 | 1.03 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 8.67 | 8 | (2.97) | -4 |
| MN | 12.09 | 13 | 1.38 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 11.67 | 12 | (0.42) | -1 |
| ILL | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - | 0 |
And here is the updated Schedule/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | UW | MSU | PSU | tOSU | Iowa | M | NU | UNL | PU | RU | IU | MD | MN | ILL | Team | . |
| 1 | UW | n/a | miss | miss | miss | 11/11, A | 11/18, A | L by 9, A | L by 21, H | L by 8, A | miss | L by 28, H | L by 25, A | 11/25, H | L by 14, H | UW | 1 |
| 2 | MSU | miss | n/a | L by 3, A | 11/11, H | L by 7, A | L by 4, H | W in OT, H | miss | miss | 11/25, H | L by 8, A | 11/18, A | L by 3, H | miss | MSU | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | miss | W by 3, H | n/a | W by 1, H | L by 2, H | L by 29, A | L by 24, H | 11/18, A | miss | 11/11, A | L by 31, A | 11/25, H | miss | miss | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | tOSU | miss | 11/11, A | L by 1, A | n/a | W by 31, H | 11/25, H | miss | L by 42, H | miss | L by 56, H | L by 28, H | L by 48, A | miss | 11/18, A | tOSU | 4 |
| 5 | Iowa | 11/11, H | W by 7, H | W by 2, A | L by 31, A | n/a | miss | W in OT, H | 11/24, H | 11/18, A | miss | miss | miss | L by 7, A | L by 29, A | Iowa | 5 |
| 6 | M | 11/18, H | W by 4, A | W by 29, H | 11/25, A | miss | n/a | miss | miss | L by 18, H | L by 21, A | L in OT, H | 11/11, H | L by 23, A | miss | M | 6 |
| 7 | NU | W by 9, H | L in OT, A | W by 24, A | miss | L in OT, A | miss | n/a | L in OT, H | 11/11, A | miss | miss | L by 16, H | 11/18, A | 11/25, H | NU | 7 |
| 8 | UNL | W by 21, A | miss | 11/18, H | W by 42, A | 11/24, A | miss | W in OT, A | n/a | L by 1, H | L by 10, A | miss | miss | 11/11, H | L by 22, H | UNL | 8 |
| 9 | PU | W by 8, H | miss | miss | miss | 11/18, H | W by 18, A | 11/11, H | W by 1, A | n/a | W by 2, H | 11/25, A | miss | L by 14, A | L by 19, A | PU | 9 |
| 10 | RU | miss | 11/25, A | 11/11, H | W by 56, A | miss | W by 21, H | miss | W by 10, H | L by 2, A | n/a | 11/18, H | L by 7, H | miss | L by 11, H | RU | 10 |
| 11 | IU | W by 28, A | W by 8, H | W by 31, H | W by 28, A | miss | W in OT, A | miss | miss | 11/25, H | 11/18, A | n/a | W by 3, H | miss | 11/11, H | IU | 11 |
| 12 | MD | W by 25, H | 11/18, H | 11/25, A | W by 48, H | miss | 11/11, A | W by 16, A | miss | miss | W by 7, H | L by 3, A | n/a | L by 7, H | miss | MD | 12 |
| 13 | MN | 11/25, A | W by 3, A | miss | miss | W by 7, H | W by 23, H | 11/18, H | 11/11, A | W by 14, H | miss | miss | W by 7, A | n/a | L by 7, A | MN | 13 |
| 14 | ILL | W by 14, A | miss | miss | 11/18, H | W by 29, H | miss | 11/25, A | W by 22, A | W by 19, H | W by 11, A | 11/11, A | miss | W by 7, H | n/a | ILL | 14 |
| . | Team | UW | MSU | PSU | tOSU | Iowa | M | NU | UNL | PU | RU | IU | MD | MN | ILL | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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I'd say that's about right for UW, UNL, and ILL
top, middle, and bottom.............. don't know about the rest