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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7364 on: April 18, 2023, 12:49:18 PM »
If I'm not careful, I'm going to learn something
ok Bart
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7365 on: April 18, 2023, 12:50:11 PM »
How do we know what the true balance is

We are assuming that the earth is in balance cause thats where we were before man
How do we know the earth cant increase this balance to accommodate a very small amount of additional co2

again in my example if total atmosphere volume equals 10,000 units

total co2 would be 40 units

Man made co2 would be 1.6 units

we are saying 1.6 units out of 10,000 is just too much and a surplus will build up

We are just assuming cause I dont think we really know

we look at what has happened in the last 150 years and design our models based on that

The earth has existed for 4.5 billion years and the co2 amount has gone up and gone down

do we know why

I dont think so
First point: you keep repeating this "total CO2 is 40 units and man-made would be 1.6 units" which suggests you're not reading what I'm writing. You keep confusing the 4%(-ish) annual emissions added to the system by man, and there's no evidence that over a 150-year period, that means that man-made CO2 is only 4% of total atmospheric CO2. You have nothing to back up that leap of faith. 

Second point: you're assuming that "we don't know" whether the earth can balance despite the fact that people have been looking at this science in very great detail since the 1950s. We know how much is emitted. We measure how much ends up in plant material, in the ocean, etc. That's where that 122 gigaton number comes from--we actually observe that. And we know over a 150 year period, the earth is NOT increase this balance because it's accumulating in the atmosphere. 

Third point: The Earth will absolutely accommodate this balance. But the Earth's time horizon for making these sort of adjustments operate on the Earth's time, not ours. I'm actually not worried about the long-term health of the Earth. I'm worried about its short-term ability to feed a population of 8 billion human beings. The Earth will be fine. Humans just might be f$^#%d. 

here again you make assumption that the person cant adjust this balance and thats wrong

this person could increase their exercise activity and accommodate the additional calories

we dont know everything there is to know about nature and the accommodations it makes

Yes, a person could adjust. A person has reason, volition, and agency. Thus a person can change their behavior very quickly to respond to changing inputs.

Nature, too, can [and will] adjust. However, the last 150 years suggest that we're acting much faster than nature can adjust. There's no reason to believe, based on 150 years of evidence, that we can continue emitting this much excess CO2 and that nature will respond quickly enough to save us from ourselves, even if nature will eventually adjust. 

But your response seems to consistently be that "we don't know everything, therefore we shouldn't even pay any attention to this and/or do anything about it." Whereas my response is "we know enough that we should at least be taking this seriously, because all trends are to a place where we don't really know what consequences we might face."

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7366 on: April 18, 2023, 12:58:13 PM »

But your response seems to consistently be that "we don't know everything, therefore we shouldn't even pay any attention to this and/or do anything about it." Whereas my response is "we know enough that we should at least be taking this seriously, because all trends are to a place where we don't really know what consequences we might face."
I do take it seriously
they want to take my gas appliances away
they want to take away my gas driven auto
they are taking away my coal powered power plant and replacing it with wind mills

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7367 on: April 18, 2023, 01:02:17 PM »
First point: you keep repeating this "total CO2 is 40 units and man-made would be 1.6 units" which suggests you're not reading what I'm writing. You keep confusing the 4%(-ish) annual emissions added to the system by man, and there's no evidence that over a 150-year period, that means that man-made CO2 is only 4% of total atmospheric CO2. You have nothing to back up that leap of faith.


youre not reading what Im writing

I posted 3 article sources for the 4% number

see next post
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7369 on: April 18, 2023, 01:21:00 PM »
The critical figure is how much of the additional CO2 in theh atmosphere is due to human activities.  Yes, the planet aside from humans generates a lot of CO2, and absorbs about the same amount, so you end up "neutral".  


FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7370 on: April 18, 2023, 01:41:21 PM »
no fear of a Longhorn learning anything

they all seem to know everything

those 10-gallon hats are plumb full
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7371 on: April 18, 2023, 01:50:06 PM »
Not nice!!
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7372 on: April 18, 2023, 01:52:34 PM »
youre not reading what Im writing

I posted 3 article sources for the 4% number

see next post
Again, you're talking about annual emissions, not actual percentage of man-made CO2 in the atmosphere. 

Your first link is a letter to the editor, by a person of unknown background and credibility. He claims it's 3.2% of CO2 in the atmosphere, citing some DOE 2000 report I can't find via google. However, given the closeness of the number to the estimates of man-made annual emissions, I see no reason to believe that it's not an error that he has made that is identical to the one you have made. 

Your second link is to Quora, which is a question-and-answer site not terribly unlike a message board. The first answer by Windell Driskell (retired USAF and not climate scientist) repeats that about 97% is produced by nature. The use of the word "produced" would be consistent with an understanding of annual emissions. He does not claim it's 97% of the atmospheric CO2 level. A second answer by George Dowson (byline says he's a researcher in CCUS, aka carbon capture, utilization, and storage) reiterates the claim I've made that it's about 5% of annual emissons but a major driver of atmospheric CO2 rise. A third response by Cristian Bellafonte (entrepreneur) reiterates the idea that 3.2% is produced or by-produced by man, which again points to annual emissions. He never claims that it is 3.2% or 4% of the current atmosphere. A fourth response by Edward Measure (retired physicist) doesn't use any percentage claim, but says burning fossil fuels, and manufacture of cement and steel is a smaller contribution than natural sources. However he claims that because this additional CO2 is unbalanced, it drives the increase in atmospheric CO2. Beyond that there are some older answers, which range from "less than 10%" to around 33% of atmospheric CO2 is man made. Either way, I'd suggest that Quora is a poor source for, well, anything. 

Your third link is again a question and answer site. However, the only posted answer to the question clearly explains that the idea of 3% of emissions (referring to annual emissions) being man-made, it leads to a much higher total atmospheric concentration because the carbon cycle cannot sink the extra emissions. 

So your links don't actually prove anything. They're not from reputable sources, and two of the three don't even claim what you say they're claiming. 

Have you read any of the links I've provided? If not, I highly recommend these:

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/
https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm


Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7374 on: April 18, 2023, 02:02:41 PM »
Environmentalists: Certified natural gas efforts fail to contain damaging leaks (thehill.com)

Natural gas is mostly methane — a pollutant that warms the planet dozens of times more powerfully than carbon dioxide — as well as a spicing of potential carcinogens, as The Hill reported.
Its small molecules also leak easily from wellheads, valves and pipelines — leaks which may cancel out any climate benefits of gas over coal, according to a 2018 study in Science. That study also found that the Environmental Protection Agency was likely undercounting methane leaks by 60 percent. 
And while the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that gas was slightly less carbon-intensive than coal — even with leaks factored in — it also estimated that the world energy industry leaked 135 million tons of methane in 2022. According to U.S. government data, that’s the equivalent emissions of 900 coal plants — or nearly 8,500 gas plants — running year round without producing anything.



longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7375 on: April 18, 2023, 02:03:40 PM »
no fear of a Longhorn learning anything

they all seem to know everything

those 10-gallon hats are plumb full
yep
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7376 on: April 18, 2023, 02:08:34 PM »



^^^ What happens when an engineer and an accountant argue about CO2.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7377 on: April 18, 2023, 02:19:35 PM »
Environmentalists: Certified natural gas efforts fail to contain damaging leaks (thehill.com)

Natural gas is mostly methane — a pollutant that warms the planet dozens of times more powerfully than carbon dioxide — as well as a spicing of potential carcinogens, as The Hill reported.
Its small molecules also leak easily from wellheads, valves and pipelines — leaks which may cancel out any climate benefits of gas over coal, according to a 2018 study in Science. That study also found that the Environmental Protection Agency was likely undercounting methane leaks by 60 percent.
And while the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that gas was slightly less carbon-intensive than coal — even with leaks factored in — it also estimated that the world energy industry leaked 135 million tons of methane in 2022. According to U.S. government data, that’s the equivalent emissions of 900 coal plants — or nearly 8,500 gas plants — running year round without producing anything.



Do you have any idea how much methane in our atmosphere is man made or caused?

Its about 10 parts per million.

Seems pretty small to me.
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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