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Topic: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2019, 12:32:57 PM »
Quote from: fezzador on January 14, 2019, 10:55:14 AM
Yeah, I think by 1992 it was obvious the SWC was on the brink of collapse (by that time Arkansas had already bailed).  SMU's downfall really effed the rest of the conference over.  
A big part of the SWC's collapse was that their major traditional power (Texas) simply wasn't very good for the last decade or so of the SWC's existence.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2019, 12:38:40 PM »
I think it was all of the cheating that did that conference in.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2019, 12:40:51 PM »
The FSU offense was good, but it wasn't as good as 1993's.  Ward was already Ward, but he was turnover-prone.  The RBs averaged 5 ypc, but the next year, they'd average 6 and 7 (Dunn as the backup), etc.  
That being said, the Noles would move the ball some on Bama, but Langham, Teague, & Co. would snag some INTs.  It would be fun seeing if Curry & Copeland could corral Ward, or if he'd wear them out.




That Miami team was one-dimensional, and a lot of its warts were muffled by the 29-game willing streak.  They couldn't run the ball and much of the passing game wound up being "throw a 50/50 ball up and my guy will get it".....except that doesn't work against really good defenses.  They only scored 19 on FSU.  But their defense was legit - did any other college teams have 3 starters at LB that would go on to start 10+ years in the NFL?  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2019, 12:57:00 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 14, 2019, 12:38:40 PM
I think it was all of the cheating that did that conference in.
if that were the case the SEC SEC SEC would have collapsed by now
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MarqHusker

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2019, 03:09:36 PM »
A grest sidebar from this season is the story of Corky Simpson.  The Tucson writer and AP voter caught all kinds of grief and flak for voting Bama #1 All season.   Yes, there was a time when the national media did not worship the SEC.
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fezzador

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2019, 03:43:54 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on January 14, 2019, 12:57:00 PM
if that were the case the SEC SEC SEC would have collapsed by now
The moral of the story is, if you're going to cheat, don't be stupid about it like the SWC was.  It wasn't the fact that they were cheating, but they were so brazen about it and still continued to cheat even after getting caught.

If SMU even pretended to abide by the rules, it might be in the Big 12 now.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2019, 05:55:16 PM »
Well what are the last official cheats in the SEC?  Ole Miss and their obvious, multiple-5 star kids class and then Miss State before that, with Cam and his pappy.  The 2 lowest non-Vandy programs trying to get some traction.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2019, 06:08:07 PM »
No gas-lighting. 
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SFBadger96

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2019, 07:12:57 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 13, 2019, 08:39:51 PM
Remember, the Sugar Bowl never happened in this exercise....who would have won?
So I'm still trying to process what this means. Isn't the result of a game actually played as good an indication as we could have of what the result would be in a hypothetical match up? It's far from perfect, but, for instance, if we know that aTm's gaudy record came against a weak schedule and that when aTm played a top ten team in its bowl game it did not fare well, isn't that a data point about what we think would happen if the top four ranked teams played each other? If we think that Miami might well end up playing Alabama in the championship game, isn't the result of those two teams playing each other in a bowl game relevant to what we think the result would be if they played each other in a championship game?
If the exercise is to try to guess, based on what we knew about these teams (e.g., "I remember the '89 Canes converting a third and 42 against the Irish--that team was unstoppable in crunch time," or some such thing) how could we excise what our memory tells us about those teams' bowl game results (where our memory necessarily includes the bowl game results)?
I'm not trying to sharp shoot this exercise, I'm just trying to understand what it's after.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2019, 08:46:41 PM »
You're playing the role of a prognosticator during that season.  It's December 9th, 1992, and you're being asked to pick a winner of the playoff for that season.  




As for knowing the outcome of a game and using it to predict the winner of a matchup of the same 2 teams, well, I guess that depends on the person.  Alabama beat Miami 34-13 in the Sugar Bowl that year.  Some people might think if they played again 10 times, Alabama would usually win by 20, and some might even think the Tide would win again by that same score.
I happen to think they could play 100 times and that score wouldn't be repeated.  A 34-13 score in a game actually played might lead someone to think Alabama would beat Miami 8 out of 10 or something like that, but it's probably closer to 6 out of 10, imo.


Anyways, the reason we're ignoring the bowl outcomes is that using them takes it out of your hands and you have less to "chew on".  If you happen to think a bowl outcome was odd and you think it would go down differently if played again, then here's your chance to say so and predict as such.  For the Sugar Bowl specifically, what if George Teague hadn't run down Lamar Thomas and stripped him?  What if Miami scores there and it opens up the offense for the rest of the game?  What if Teague didn't have a pick-6 right before that?  You'd have a 20-13 game instead of 27-6.  How often does the same WR fumble twice in a game?  

This isn't supposed to be a what-if contest leaning to either team, but I'm trying to show that when what actually happened involves unlikely outcomes here and there, the winner of a game and the margin of victory are...delicate. The important thing is, you can think Alabama was better and pick them to win the "what if" playoff without citing the Sugar Bowl.  I don't want anyone to use the outcome of the bowl game, shrug their shoulders, and think "well I guess I have to say Alabama (or Team-X) would win the rematch."  No, the team you think would win is who you should choose.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2019, 08:53:58 PM »
btw, we're all crapping on A&M, but look at their team - it's a lot like Bama's.  A LOT.  
Can't pass at all.
Can run it really well with a group of backs.
Several close wins.
Very good defense with All-American types from front to back.
12-0


Just sayin'.... :sign0099:
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MarqHusker

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2019, 10:30:34 PM »
At that point, much like with Osborne and some of his teams in bowl games against elite talent, I was no longer convinced A&M had enough offense to hang around in a big time bowl game.  I know they wasted BYU shortly before in a Holiday Bowl, but they laid a massive egg vs FSU in the prior Cotton Bowl and I don't see any difference in '92.
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FearlessF

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2019, 10:53:24 PM »
I went with the Noles
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Vote - What if? 1992 CFP
« Reply #27 on: January 15, 2019, 07:40:18 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on January 14, 2019, 08:53:58 PM
btw, we're all crapping on A&M, but look at their team - it's a lot like Bama's.  A LOT.  
Can't pass at all.
Can run it really well with a group of backs.
Several close wins.
Very good defense with All-American types from front to back.
12-0
Just sayin'.... :sign0099:
Their schedule was almost as bad as UCF's this year.  Here are their opponents sorted by final record along with how aTm did against them:
  • 10-3 Stanford:  won by a FG at a neutral site
  • 7-5 Baylor:  won by 6 at home
  • 6-5 Texas:  won by 21 on the road
  • 6-5 Rice:  won by 26 at home
  • 5-6 Louisville:  won by 22 at home
  • 5-6 SMU:  won by 34 at a neutral site
  • 5-6 TxTech:  won by 2 at home
  • 4-7 Houston:  won by 8 on the road
  • 4-7 Tulsa:  won by 10 at home
  • 3-8 Mizzou:  won by 13 on the road
  • 2-8-1 TCU:  won by 27 at home
  • 2-9 LSU:  won by 9 on the road
Of their opponents only Stanford and Baylor went to bowl games.  There just isn't much here.  
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