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Topic: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.

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bayareabadger

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3248 on: Today at 05:09:16 PM »
It remains funny to me that the NCAA gave up the sit-out year to try to hold off paying players. 

Though they wrapped the sit-out rule in such silly language, they left it super vulnerable.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3249 on: Today at 05:09:38 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on Today at 03:26:56 PM
I think NIL can be a big factor.

Previously, the draw of the helmets was strong on a national basis. There was some regionality to helmet recruiting, but many of them could poach a kid outside their own region if/when they wanted.

However, all they could offer is helmet/prestige. They couldn't offer $$$. So if a kid actually wanted to stay close to home, it was only helmet/prestige they were giving up.

Now, the rich programs can offer helmet/prestige AND big paychecks. It's not just an emotional decision; it's a lot more financial than it was. So there are now two big factors that the rich/helmet programs have in their favor to attract a kid who may prefer to stay home, not just one.

If Indiana can crack the code, anyone can. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3250 on: Today at 05:26:16 PM »
Quote from: Gigem on Today at 11:59:18 AM
All those states are in the mid-west, and aren't the populations about the same?  For that matter Alabama or Louisana isn't heavily populated either. 
Ah, no.  

Population at 2020 census with 2024 est:
  • 13.0M Pennsylvania 13.1M
  • 12.8M Illinois 12.7M (yes, they are shrinking)
  • 11.8M Ohio 11.9M
  • 10.1M Michigan 10.1M
  • 6.8M Indiana 6.9M
  • 5.9M Wisconsin 6.0M
  • 5.7M Minnesota 5.8M
  • 5.0M Alabama 5.2M
  • 4.7M Louisiana 4.6M
PA and IL are pretty close then a drop of about 1M to Ohio, then a drop of ~1.7M to Michigan.  I guess you could say that those are "about the same" but Wisconsin's population is barely over 1/2 of Ohio's and less than 1/2 of PA's or IL's.  That does matter both for NIL and for recruits in the area.  Assuming the same density of high-end football recruits (which isn't true nationally but *might* be roughly true for Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin) Ohio would have roughly twice as many high end recruits as Wisconsin.  


I also think that vis-a-vis fanbase size the B1G is helped by having a MUCH larger "disapora" of people who were born in the midwest or who are second or third generation from there.  Ie, if you go back 45 years (1980) Florida's population was 7th still behind behind OH, IL, PA.  If you go back 85 years (1940):
  • Current B1G states PA, IL, and OH were the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most populous behind only NY.  
  • Texas was still less populous than those three and had only marginally more people than Michigan.  
  • Florida's population was <2M, roughly a quarter of Ohio's.  
In terms of overall fanbase size I think there are a LOT more people who root for Ohio State or Michigan because their grandpa grew up there than there are people who root for even Texas let alone Georgia, Alabama, or Florida because their grandpa grew up there.  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3251 on: Today at 05:37:54 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on Today at 05:09:38 PM
If Indiana can crack the code, anyone can.
And if I can find donors willing to buy me a Ferrari, I'll have a Ferrari. 

Don't need a quantum computer to crack that code... :57:
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3252 on: Today at 05:50:04 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on Today at 05:37:54 PM
And if I can find donors willing to buy me a Ferrari, I'll have a Ferrari.

Don't need a quantum computer to crack that code... :57:


If only you had a handful of alumni that were successful engineers. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3253 on: Today at 06:03:55 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on Today at 05:50:04 PM

If only you had a handful of alumni that were successful engineers.
I'm a successful engineer. But I'm much more interested in buying my own Ferrari, not buying one for my alma mater :57:

Which is IMHO one of the problems that a lot of schools like Purdue or Wisconsin have. They're not football factories like tOSU. Alumni care, but they don't care THAT much that they'll impoverish themselves in order to make their team successful... 
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utee94

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3254 on: Today at 06:08:42 PM »
You don't just need wealthy alumni, you need wealthy alumni that are happy to spend significant amounts of money buying colllege football players.  And the truth is that plenty of wealthy alumni don't give a rat's ass about the school's football program. 

Michael Dell doesn't give a dime to UT athletics, instead he'd rather support and enrich the community by building hospitals and funding med schools.

And I'm cool with that.
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SFBadger96

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3255 on: Today at 06:15:50 PM »
I'd be interested to see the numbers behind it. I bet a handful of well-healed donors is what it takes (or one, if they are Mark Cuban or Phil Knight). For Wisconsin, if Herb Kohl were still around, they would probably be fine. As I understand it, right now it's Kellner. Apparently he has been convinced that Fickell is the right guy and is opening up the pocket book. We'll see.

I think Michigan and Ohio State have more access to more of those kinds of donors. Football being a part of the culture of the school probably helps create such donors, but it's not the only thing.
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Gigem

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3256 on: Today at 07:14:57 PM »
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SFBadger96

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3257 on: Today at 07:29:19 PM »
Yeah, it is an interesting shift. And it will continue to be interesting as things shake out over the next few years. Kids are still going to want to develop to have a shot at the League, but they want to maximize their earning, too. It gives non-helmets the opportunity to come in with money, rather than just "a chance to play rather than sit three deep on the bench," which was the old recruiting strategy for non-helmets. But it's still rewarding the rich. Indiana, with Mark Cuban, isn't really the little guy, even if that's the story the media is pitching. But it's a different set of privileged folks that will get rewarded, at least in part.

And the players will take advantage of their earning power, which is an improvement.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3258 on: Today at 07:33:01 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on Today at 06:03:55 PM
I'm a successful engineer. But I'm much more interested in buying my own Ferrari, not buying one for my alma mater :57:

Which is IMHO one of the problems that a lot of schools like Purdue or Wisconsin have. They're not football factories like tOSU. Alumni care, but they don't care THAT much that they'll impoverish themselves in order to make their team successful...

Well then it should come as no surprise that you are falling behind the Hoosiers. 
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Gigem

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #3259 on: Today at 09:47:23 PM »
The other thing is that I’m confused on how it all works. I know there was supposed to be a 2-3 year period where it was like the Wild West, pay was unregulated, etc. 

Now supposedly NIL was supposed to go through some kind of clearinghouse, and the school was supposed to revenue share.  But supposedly some court struck something down , this didn’t get approved, I really don’t know how any of it works. 


But this is how I think it really works. Nobody, not even the NCAA, can disallow anyone to accept money for whatever reason, as long as it’s not illegal. If Mark Cuban want to give Mendoza a cool $5 MM, it’s pretty much their business. The schools are revenue sharing, up to $20 MM, but it’s not spread equally. Football gets about 60-70%, MBB get 20-30%, and the other sports get the rest. 

Anyone that wants to ELIF  (explain like I’m five) jump in and clarify. 
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