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common opponent doesn't mean much
unless everything else is equal

and winning a conference today is more impressive than back in the 80s when conferences were smaller and there were more of them

next season, winning the PAC or the Big 12 won't mean much.  Like winning the MAC or the Mountain West

It's in their codified guidelines, so they're supposed to take it into account.  Whether they do, or not, remains to be seen. But they're supposed to and they say they do.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

So in this hypothetical, both Texas and Oregon would have won their conference championship, Texas would have the better season-ending SOS, and Texas would have the advantage in comparative outcomes vs. common opponents.  Obviously there's no direct H2H to be considered in this scenario.

The common opponents thing would be equal, woudl it not?

38-30 = 57-7 ?

• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Right.  Similar to the language in the old BCS formula, where MOV consideration was capped at 21 or something like that, because they didn't want to overly incent running up the score.

If you're not comparing scores, how else are you supposed to do it? 

If Team A loses to Team X, and Team B beats Team X....

If we don't "incent" MoV, the scores wouldn't matter would they?

Maybe road vs home matters?

I think the committee would actually weight relative scores no matter the rules.  I don't know how SoS is calculated, by them.

Yes, absolutely agree with this.  The primary reason they currently have Oregon ahead of Texas is that Oregon has had a greater MOV over most opponents (although it's also against a weaker SOS).

The selection committee is like a child distracted by shiny objects.  MOV is one of the biggest shiny objects that distracts them.

Anyway, we clearly need @medinabuckeye1  to come along and run all of the scenarios and tell us what's going to happen.

Anyway, we clearly need @medinabuckeye1  to come along and run all of the scenarios and tell us what's going to happen.

Using AP since new CFP rankings are not available yet:

• 12-0 UGA vs 11-1 #8 Bama
• 12-0 scUM vs 10-2 #18 Iowa
• 12-0 Washington vs 11-1 #5 Oregon
• 12-0 Florida State vs 10-2 #15 Louisville
• 11-1 Oregon vs 12-0 #3 Washington
• 11-1 Ohio State, idle
• 11-1 Texas vs 9-3 #19 OkSU
• 11-1 Bama vs 12-0 #1 Georgia
• 9 through 14 as well as 16 and 17 are all idle.

Ohio State will be the only 1-loss P5 non-Champion. It will clearly not get them to the CFP because they'll be behind #1-3 even if they lose plus they'll be behind #5, #7, and #8 if they win. In theory Ohio State might have a sliver of hope if:

• 1-3 all win, and
• 4 and 7 both lose

In practice I don't think that would get tOSU in because they'd take either 12-1 FSU or 11-2 Louisville instead.

The top four obviously control their own destiny with Oregon, Texas, and Bama waiting for one of them to lose. Oregon and Bama have the advantage of getting a chance to knock off one of the top four. Texas can only hope that someone does it for them.


Last week the committee had Oregon ahead of Texas and if that holds, then Texas probably needs Washington to win and one of Georgia/Michigan/FSU to lose. Even then, if UGA loses to Bama that should get Texas in but I wouldn't bet on the SEC Champions being left out.

Using AP since new CFP rankings are not available yet:

• 12-0 UGA vs 11-1 #8 Bama
• 12-0 scUM vs 10-2 #18 Iowa
• 12-0 Washington vs 11-1 #5 Oregon
• 12-0 Florida State vs 10-2 #15 Louisville
• 11-1 Oregon vs 12-0 #3 Washington
• 11-1 Ohio State, idle
• 11-1 Texas vs 9-3 #19 OkSU
• 11-1 Bama vs 12-0 #1 Georgia
• 9 through 14 as well as 16 and 17 are all idle.

Ohio State will be the only 1-loss P5 non-Champion. It will clearly not get them to the CFP because they'll be behind #1-3 even if they lose plus they'll be behind #5, #7, and #8 if they win. In theory Ohio State might have a sliver of hope if:

• 1-3 all win, and
• 4 and 7 both lose

In practice I don't think that would get tOSU in because they'd take either 12-1 FSU or 11-2 Louisville instead.

The top four obviously control their own destiny with Oregon, Texas, and Bama waiting for one of them to lose. Oregon and Bama have the advantage of getting a chance to knock off one of the top four. Texas can only hope that someone does it for them.


Last week the committee had Oregon ahead of Texas and if that holds, then Texas probably needs Washington to win and one of Georgia/Michigan/FSU to lose. Even then, if UGA loses to Bama that should get Texas in but I wouldn't bet on the SEC Champions being left out.

Agree-- even if Texas has the same record and beat that SEC champ head-to-head by double digits on their own field.

Such is the way of the current CFP system.