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Sure, but they knew it wasn't gonna be Nick Saban. If Utee bought tickets to a music festival because Taylor Swift was headlining, and then she cancelled, he wouldn't be waiting around to see who is replacing her.

Yeah, but you'd think if you're selling tickets the moment that she was announced to not be the headliner without knowing who was replacing her, you're going to be the ultimate "buy high, sell low" example. 

Which is fine if you thought you were going to be able to trade up into tickets to a major headliner. But if you're giving up Taylor for some WAY lesser name, maybe you should just kinda hold those tickets and see who the replacement is?

I'd call it the Thurman Thomas fallacy.

Just because the guy who left was great doesn't mean he can't be replaced by someone ultimately better.

Or the Sam Howell fallacy.  Or the Drew Bledsoe (NE) fallacy.  

On and on and on.  

I'd call it the Thurman Thomas fallacy.

Just because the guy who left was great doesn't mean he can't be replaced by someone ultimately better.

Or the Sam Howell fallacy.  Or the Drew Bledsoe (NE) fallacy. 

On and on and on. 

Sure. But odds are low.

Kalen DeBoer has a pretty good track record.

Sure.  Like I said, if I were a WR or QB already on the roster or having signed an NLI to play at Alabama, I'd probably be okay with the change.

But I could definitely see why defenders might be wary and looking to make a move.

I mean sure, but Utee goes to bed dreaming about Taylor Swift and wakes up thinking about her. Talking "replacements" is besides the point. Nick Saban is the greatest college football coach in the history of the sport. He's getting replaced, but there is no replacement.

Also, if you're betting that the greatest college football coach of all time is going to be replaced  by the greatest college football coach of all time, then you're a fool and a sucker and you should definitely stay away from games of chance.  I mean, sure, it could happen, but the likelihood is miniscule.  It's a terrible bet.

Yeah. The GOAT is getting replaced. And there is no replacement. 

But you know where the GOAT is also not coaching? Iowa. Or Auburn. Or A&M. Or Texas. 

It's not like Saban left for Colorado and all his players are transferring to follow him. He's retiring. And they're leaving, but not going to schools with the GOAT coach because, as you say, there is no replacement. 

I'd call it the Thurman Thomas fallacy.

Just because the guy who left was great doesn't mean he can't be replaced by someone ultimately better.

Or the Sam Howell fallacy.  Or the Drew Bledsoe (NE) fallacy. 

On and on and on. 

None of those guys were the best at what they did EVER like Saban is at what he did. None of them were even in that discussion. All of them good to great, sure. All-time all-time greatest ever? Not one of them.

Odds of replacing ONE OF THE BEST EVER with someone even better are astronomically low. Could happen, sure. HIGHLY unlikely though.

Jordan left the Bulls like 25 years ago and they still haven't found anyone in the same universe nor come close to sniffing a championship. Brady left the Pats 5 years ago and they've been a dumpster fire at QB and Belichik just got fired.

Only real example of a truly all-time great being replaced by someone better that I can really think of is when Favre left the Packers and Rodgers came in and replaced him and was even better. That's basically it.

Yeah. The GOAT is getting replaced. And there is no replacement.

But you know where the GOAT is also not coaching? Iowa. Or Auburn. Or A&M. Or Texas.

It's not like Saban left for Colorado and all his players are transferring to follow him. He's retiring. And they're leaving, but not going to schools with the GOAT coach because, as you say, there is no replacement.

I don't think it's unreasonable for a player to be concerned about the uncertainty with a brand new coaching staff coming in, even if those coaches were successful elsewhere.  The coaching landscape is littered with coaches that were good at one place, and then failed when they went somewhere "bigger."  In fact, just looking at the blue bloods over the past 20 years or so, I'd say the outcome of failure is far more likely than a new coach coming in from a "lesser" job, and being particularly successful.

After losing their last "good one" for whatever reasons, Texas, Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Tennessee, all turned over coach after coach after coach, trying to get back on the right side of success.  And before Saban, Alabama turned over a few as well.  Really only OU and Ohio State have had much success replacing a good coach with another good coach during that span.

So knowing that the odds are the replacement for Saban is, at best, not going to be wildly successful and, quite likely, is going to fail-- I can see why kids would want to leave for a more stable situation at Texas or wherever.  But it definitely doesn't explain why you'd transfer to a school that is also in the midst of a complete coaching changeover like Texas A&M.  NIL could be influencing that.