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Topic: Toughest schedules in 2019

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Kris60

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #28 on: June 03, 2019, 06:38:53 AM »
There is really nothing amazing about Clemson’s opponents being ranked when they played them.  First off, it only happened twice during the season.  When they played NC St on October 20 the Wolfpack were 5-0.  Not unusual for a P5 to be ranked with a 5-0 record.

When they played BC on November 10 the Eagles were 7-2.  Again, nothing unusual for a 7-2 P5 team to be ranked that late in the season.

Cincydawg

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #29 on: June 03, 2019, 06:44:58 AM »
Of course not, but some folks believe a "fix is in" with a lot of stuff in life that doesn't go the way they see it.  It's human nature.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #30 on: June 03, 2019, 10:35:16 AM »
The same applies to non-con scheduling in basketball. Even though the BigTen went to 20 conference games last year, fortunately they primarily displaced guarantee games as opposed to big games.
I feel the same way and I'm very happy that, at least so far, the two extra conference games appear not to have displaced good OOC games. 

In basketball where losing to a good team doesn't really hurt you it makes sense to schedule tough.  It get you better attendance and more TV exposure with almost zero downside. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #31 on: June 03, 2019, 10:41:03 AM »
So 2 university presidents removed, 3 HCs removed, and a newish AD, Florida finally has new, original minds making such decisions.  The Gators could very well continue playing FSU and 3 cupcakes, and routinely have a top-20 SOS...they're just choosing not to anymore.
This is a fair take on Florida.  You'll notice that I don't pick on UF schedules the way a lot of B1G fans do.  With the annual FSU OOC game and eight SEC games, the Gator's schedule is typically about what Ohio State's is or better.  Ohio State typically has a "marquee" OOC game (not this year) that is roughly equivalent to FSU (recent examples include Oklahoma, Texas, USC, etc) and then nine league games. 

The big thing that Florida/the SEC are doing that Ohio State/the B1G haven't figured out yet is spacing their tough games in a smart way.  Playing tough games back-to-back-to-back is just not smart but for some reason the B1G has the Buckeyes ending 2019 and 2021 with Penn State and Michigan back-to-back.  If the Buckeyes are fortunate enough to get into the B1GCG and then the CFP Championship that will result in a ridiculous ending slate of:
1)  A good or very good Penn State
2)  A good or very good Michigan
3)  The B1G-W Champion
4)  A CFP team
5)  A CFP semi-final winner. 

Has any CFB team ever won five straight games against opposition that good?  I doubt it. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #32 on: June 03, 2019, 10:52:14 AM »
Ohio State (winners of the team most often on the cusp award)

Every year of the CFP so far:
2014:
Ohio State was one of three "on the cusp" teams with one loss and a P5 Championship or co-championship along with Baylor and TCU from the B12.  Ohio State got in at #4 while Baylor and TCU were left out as #5 and #6 respectively. 

2015:
As a one-loss non-champion Ohio State didn't have THAT strong of an argument but most (or all) computer rankings had the Buckeyes (11-1, no CG) ahead of the Hawkeyes (12-1, lost CG), the Trees (11-2), and even that Spartans (12-1, B1G Champs) despite Ohio State's loss to MSU. 

2016:
The Buckeyes somewhat controversially got in at 11-1 with no CG appearance and ahead of an 11-2 Penn State team that beat the Buckeyes H2H and won the B1G.  The problem for the Nittany Lions was that they had two losses and both of them were bad (Pitt because they were a mediocre team, Michigan because PSU wasn't competitive). 

2017:
The Buckeyes got back to and won the B1GCG yet finished behind an 11-1 Bama team that had missed the SECCG.  The problem for the Buckeyes was that they had two losses.  The 31-16 early OOC loss to Oklahoma wasn't bad (OU was a CFP team) but the mid-season blowout loss in Iowa City was ugly. 

2018:
The Buckeyes won the second consecutive B1GCG and finished with just one loss but found themselves on the outside looking in anyway.  The problem was that there were three undefeated P5 teams (Bama, Clemson, ND) and another 1-loss P5 Champ (OU) ahead of Ohio State.  Oklahoma's loss was better (close vs TX) and they avenged it in their CG. 

So in five years of the CFP's existence the Buckeyes have NEVER been clearly in nor clearly out.  They have been in the debate range every single year. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #33 on: June 03, 2019, 10:58:06 AM »
The biggest thing that I think people fail to notice about SoS is that it varies depending on how good your team is. 

The overall strength of the schedule doesn't but the difficulty varies.  Here is what I mean:

Think of two schedules:
Schedule #1:
Four REALLY tough games.  I'm talking top-10ish opponents
Eight cupcakes. 

Schedule #2:
10 mediocre-to-good teams.  I'm talking teams that will likely finish somewhere between barely ranked and a little over .500
Two cupcakes. 

Now, if your team is a potential NC contender than I think that schedule #2 is most favorable.  There are a lot of games that "could" trip you up, but no contests against equals.  If you show up and play well every week, you'll go undefeated.  Conversely, schedule #1 is VERY difficult.  You have four games against equals.  If you go 2-2 against them you'll likely miss the CFP. 

But what if your team is struggling for bowl eligibility?  In that case I'd rather play schedule #1.  You'll almost certainly lose the four tough games but that still leaves room for two upset losses against the cupcakes to get to 6-6 and a bowl bid.  You are much more likely to make a bowl with schedule #1 than you are with schedule #2. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #34 on: June 03, 2019, 12:07:44 PM »
I agree totally.  But for some team than ends up 2-10 to have a tough schedule, it's not really notable compared with an evidently good team playing an evidently tough slate.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #35 on: June 03, 2019, 12:35:09 PM »
I agree totally.  But for some team than ends up 2-10 to have a tough schedule, it's not really notable compared with an evidently good team playing an evidently tough slate.
I meant the comment generally but I was also thinking specifically of aTm.  If they are a REALLY good team, like NC contender good then this schedule is a catastrophe for them.  They travel to Clemson, UGA, and LSU plus host Bama.  Going 2-2 through that would frankly be miraculous and that would probably keep them out of the SECCG which would leave them with almost zero chance at the CFP as a 10-2 team with no Championship. 

On the other hand, if aTm sucks this year, the schedule looks pretty favorable.  TxSt, Lamar, and UTSA should get them half way to bowl eligibility without even needing their starters to play.  Even a weaker mediocre team should then be able to win three out of Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, MissST, and USCe. 

FearlessF

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #36 on: June 03, 2019, 03:19:18 PM »
if the Aggies are truly MNC contenders, 3-1 is achievable.

We would expect Clemson or Bama to go 3-1  
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #37 on: June 03, 2019, 03:30:14 PM »
if the Aggies are truly MNC contenders, 3-1 is achievable.

We would expect Clemson or Bama to go 3-1 
With three of the four on the road, I don't think so unless one of the three turns out to be dramatically worse than expected. 

I still think that 2-2 would be an accomplishment even for a legitimate NC contender. 

FearlessF

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #38 on: June 03, 2019, 03:41:48 PM »
well, if Bama or Clemson went 2-2, they are more than likely out of the playoff

I agree, it would be an accomplishment, but not miraculous.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #39 on: June 03, 2019, 03:46:28 PM »
well, if Bama or Clemson went 2-2, they are more than likely out of the playoff

I agree, it would be an accomplishment, but not miraculous.
I do think that the committee takes SoS into account and thus I think that if aTm went 2-2 through that then got to and won the SECCG they would absolutely get in with an 11-2 record.  If aTm loses to Clemson OOC and to UGA in a cross-divisional game then they would still control their own destiny to win the SEC-W and that would get them in. 

That said, I agree with you that a team that went 2-2 against that slate is more than likely out because they would more than likely not win their division and a 2-loss team can't realistically make the CFP without a Championship. 

FearlessF

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #40 on: June 03, 2019, 03:52:26 PM »
an 11-2 team would need some help from the other contenders, but yes it's very possible

would be tough if the Sooners, Buckeyes, Clemson Tigers, and Washington Huskies all went undefeated, but.......... little chance of that
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
« Reply #41 on: June 03, 2019, 04:03:06 PM »
The same applies to non-con scheduling in basketball. Even though the BigTen went to 20 conference games last year, fortunately they primarily displaced guarantee games as opposed to big games.
I'm less concerned about a few pastries in basketball. I don't want Purdue scheduling too many schools way down at the very bottom of RPI/NET/KenPom, but schools in the 101-250 ranking ranges are great as tune-up games. 

But this is partly due to the fact that with 20 conference games, the ACC/B1G challenge, the Gavitt Games, and generally one "tournament" scheduled each year, you know you're going to get some good games OOC. On top of Purdue and Indiana always facing Notre Dame or Butler each year in the Crossroads Classic.

So if you load up a few guaranteed wins in early December, it's not as meaningful, especially when you're looking at 31 regular season games plus the B1G tournament plus the NCAAT. 
 

 

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