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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2019, 01:17:06 PM

Title: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2019, 01:17:06 PM
I know some of these opponents may fade, but A&M looks to have a rather large challenge:

Texas A&M plays three potential Top 5 teams away from College Station and entertains Alabama in October.



Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 01, 2019, 01:28:47 PM
Welcome to the SEC!
Schedule one elite OOC game, and your year could be scary-tough.  I remember Florida played 5 of the top 12 team in 2012 (the final BCS rankings).  That's nuts.  
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Kris60 on June 01, 2019, 03:22:19 PM
Yeah, A&M’s schedule this year on paper is stupid tough.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 01, 2019, 03:26:39 PM
Wisconsin.

They have to play OSU, Michael gan and Michigan State all in the same year.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: mcwterps1 on June 01, 2019, 03:27:01 PM
"Yay" for preseason worthless rankings boosting an entire conference for no reason whatsoever.

Maryland is the SEC-E reigning champion, thanks to Texas's destruction of Georgia.

At least, that's how I hear things are done in the SEC.

I don't look at them, so is FSU back in the top 25 preseason again? 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2019, 03:30:21 PM
Wisconsin.

They have to play OSU, Michael gan and Michigan State all in the same year.

At least it's not all in a row with 2 straight weeks in the state of Michigan.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 01, 2019, 03:56:45 PM
Well that's a relief. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 01, 2019, 04:55:56 PM
aTm's big bad slate. 

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fprintableteamschedules.com%2Fimages%2Fcollegefootball%2Ftexasamaggiesfootballschedule.gif&hash=9e59da377b8b2dc129002975c77097a2)



TXST, Lamar and Utsa? 

The Cocks as their fixed crossover? 

Still ducking the schLonghorns? 

This is the best CFB can do? 

👎
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 01, 2019, 05:38:38 PM
Okay...other side of the coin.
They play the 2 juggernauts in college football and end with consecutive road games vs top 7 teams (from last year). 

vs Ohio State's slate:
based on last year's final playoff rankings (pre-bowl):
OSU plays-
no top-20 teams the first 10 weeks
vs #12
at #7
(no one OOC, basically)
-
-
-
A&M plays-
at #2 (ooc)
vs #1
vs #18
at #5
at #11



Feel free to rank Miami-OH ahead of Lamar, or Cincinnati over UTSA, but either a team can beat you or they can't.  So logically, we can put all those teams that can't beat you in a big bin.  Doesn't matter which one you play, if none of them have a >1% chance of beating you.
-
You know this, I know it, we all do.  But it's the off-season and we're bored and just posting whatever.  I'll go ahead and assume that for you.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: bayareabadger on June 01, 2019, 06:12:11 PM
A&M vs. South Carolina is an interesting one.

A&M's toughest
At Clemson
Bama
At Georgia
At LSU
Auburn
Mississippi State

South Carolina's
Clemson
Bama
@UGA
Florida 
@A&M
Then a bit of drop off to Kentucky and Mizzou, both good teams last year, but question marks.

uSC has a bit more of a mess at the bottom of things. Their easiest games
FCS
North Carolina
App State (11 wins last year)
Vandy (Bowl team last year with a solid offense) or Tennessee (Feisty at points last year and recruiting like gangbusters)
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 01, 2019, 06:27:53 PM
Don't think any P5 teams should schedule FCS. Disagree with the B1G for relaxing their rules, and chastise the SEC for gladly gobbling up those cupcakes. 

Wish the other P5 conferences would jump on board with 9 conference games too. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 01, 2019, 06:48:34 PM
Okay...other side of the coin.
They play the 2 juggernauts in college football and end with consecutive road games vs top 7 teams (from last year). 

vs Ohio State's slate:
based on last year's final playoff rankings (pre-bowl):
OSU plays-
no top-20 teams the first 10 weeks
vs #12
at #7
(no one OOC, basically)
-
-
-
A&M plays-
at #2 (ooc)
vs #1
vs #18
at #5
at #11



Feel free to rank Miami-OH ahead of Lamar, or Cincinnati over UTSA, but either a team can beat you or they can't.  So logically, we can put all those teams that can't beat you in a big bin.  Doesn't matter which one you play, if none of them have a >1% chance of beating you.
-
You know this, I know it, we all do.  But it's the off-season and we're bored and just posting whatever.  I'll go ahead and assume that for you.

Oh yeah, OSU's schedule is awful this year.

From a purely statistical standpoint aTm has a gauntlet to navigate, no doubt about that, but if you are to factor in a variable for interesting/fun/traditional match ups, then it just falls flat.

Now I am a sucker for an in state out of Conference game, even if it is P5-G5, but they have 9 other FBS Texas teams to choose from. So they go with an FCS team, and the two most recent FCS call ups? Lame. The G5s could have at least been SMU and Houston, and have the ole SWC tie in.

Plus it is just generally irksome to look at one of their recent schedules that doesn't have the Texas Thanksgiving contest, so that's just not a very good starting point for them these days.

So other than Clemson which is obviously an awesome OOC game, and Georgia, which is a beast of a crossover draw, they scheduled the three lamest in state games any D1 Texas team could possibly schedule. 

Pass.

I'm not going to pat them on  the back for the portion of the schedule that is fixed; their division and the Cocks. They have to play those games. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: bayareabadger on June 01, 2019, 07:04:57 PM
Don't think any P5 teams should schedule FCS. Disagree with the B1G for relaxing their rules, and chastise the SEC for gladly gobbling up those cupcakes.

Wish the other P5 conferences would jump on board with 9 conference games too.
It's weird, I find myself mildly disagreeing with this. Not because I love the practice, but just because I think the benefit to the non-P5 team is nice assuming we live in a world where teams want to schedule wins. 

At a point, a team is trying to get wins in the non-conference and balance home games for revenue reasons. If you say "no FCS" you make Kent State, Tulane and Western Kentucky richer, but you're just kind of moving pieces around. If you're a passible P5 team, you should beat 6-6 Central Michigan anyway, so I don't know it's worlds different than 8-4 Wofford. 

And if that's the case, I don't mind letting a bunch of FCS kids get to play in a big stadium and have a story to tell, while infusing those programs with funds they need. Heck, some of those teams turn out pretty good.

I wonder if banning those long term gives G5 teams enough leverage to get more home games, a weird side effect whose value I'm split on. I know Bama set up a 2-for-1 wit USF, though I'm not clear A. if it ever happens, B. What the upside is outside letting kids from that part of the world get a closer look at them in what I assume would be an NFL stadium. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 01, 2019, 07:34:51 PM
Michigan's schedule is pretty strong, too. Notre Dame is obviously going to be good, again. Army won 11 games (against an admittedly weak schedule) and nearly beat Oklahoma. And Middle Tennessee was the #2 team in CUSA (they beat UAB before having to play them again a week later in the CUSA CG).

Purdue, USC, Colorado, UCLA, Stanford, and Georgia Tech have good arguments, as well.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2019, 09:25:09 PM
no one in the Big 12 feels for the Aggies

they wanted out

not sure why they put Clemson on the schedule

Clemson, Bammer, the Dawgs are spread out

if the Aggies win one or two of those, they look GREAT!!!
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: LittlePig on June 01, 2019, 11:17:40 PM
Wisconsin.

They have to play OSU, Michael gan and Michigan State all in the same year.

Which is something PSU has to do every year.

In fact MD, Rut and Indy have it even worse and have to play OSU,  Mich, MSU and PSU every year.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: FearlessF on June 01, 2019, 11:28:43 PM
MD and Rut are happy to do so

blessed
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 05:48:31 AM
I figure for a top 15 team, it does not matter whether you play a semi-decent G5 team or 1-AA battery team, you should beat both handily.  I think it's tougher to play the A&M schedule with 3 absolute pastries than playing say 3 teams ranked 15-25 and 3 half way decent G5 OOC opponents.  Of course, as noted, some of these opponents may be "Florida State".  I'd guess A&M scheduled Clemson in 2010 or so when Clemson was not at its current level.

South Carolina is the pegged cross division rival and has never beaten A&M in the SEC, which is interesting.

Georgia plays A&M (Home) and Auburn (away) in conference play, not the end of the world, and ND (home) and GT (away) OOC, which is decent.  That is a decent enough schedule without being overwhelming I think.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 05:56:51 AM
"Yay" for preseason worthless rankings boosting an entire conference for no reason whatsoever.




Preseason rankings are for "clicks", they don't really matter any more, but they do provide a broad clue about which teams are expected to be good obviously.  While it's easy to note the times they get it wrong, most of the top 20 or so teams are going to do pretty well, maybe 5 end up unranked.  The top three almost always end up top ten, and the top ten usually end up ranked somewhere.  It's not like it's some random assemblage, it has some value, but isn't perfect.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: mcwterps1 on June 02, 2019, 09:50:39 AM
Preseason rankings are for "clicks", they don't really matter any more, but they do provide a broad clue about which teams are expected to be good obviously.  While it's easy to note the times they get it wrong, most of the top 20 or so teams are going to do pretty well, maybe 5 end up unranked.  The top three almost always end up top ten, and the top ten usually end up ranked somewhere.  It's not like it's some random assemblage, it has some value, but isn't perfect.
Do you not know WHY they stay ranked? 

If your whole conference is ranked, and you lose to a ranked team, then beat a ranked team the next week, then you probably won't drop far. 

Did you notice that a week or two before Clemson played a team, they ended up in the Top 25 before playing them?  Amazing, don't you think? Yet, only Syracuse ended up ranked.

Very interesting. Clemson practically played an FCS schedule all year to get into the top 4.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 10:08:40 AM
Clemson also won the NC, and they didn't get into the top 4, they started at Number 2 and stayed in the top 4 of the polls the entire year.  Midseason rankings mean nothing these days.  The first committee ranking starts to mean a little bit.

I tend not to credit some conspiracy notion involving 58 or so sportswriters from around the country.  Maybe they all get a memo and are told how to vote, but I doubt it. 

And, it doesn't matter anyway.  I suppose the final AP poll means a bit for bragging rights if your team makes top ten, or ranked, or whatever.

I tend not to stress over how teams are ranked until the final committee decision because they don't really matter.

Anyway, I think A&M has the toughest apparent slate for 2019, perhaps some other team is close.

Speaking of irrelevant, here is a PROJECTED AP Top Ten.  It's probably fairly close:

https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/AP-Top-25-Alabama-football-rankings-Texas-Longhorns-Oklahoma-Sooners-Georgia-Bulldogs-preseason-132493804/#132493804_8 (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/AP-Top-25-Alabama-football-rankings-Texas-Longhorns-Oklahoma-Sooners-Georgia-Bulldogs-preseason-132493804/#132493804_8)

Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: bayareabadger on June 02, 2019, 10:45:47 AM
Do you not know WHY they stay ranked?

If your whole conference is ranked, and you lose to a ranked team, then beat a ranked team the next week, then you probably won't drop far.

Did you notice that a week or two before Clemson played a team, they ended up in the Top 25 before playing them?  Amazing, don't you think? Yet, only Syracuse ended up ranked.

Very interesting. Clemson practically played an FCS schedule all year to get into the top 4.
A decided meh to the first part. Alas, that overranked conference often seems to do better by the mathematical models. 

It's the second part I'm more interested in. 

First, the ranked just before they played Clemson part is either wrong or at least overstated this year. Clemson played two whole teams ranked at the time last year. It was NC State, then 5-0 and behind 11 1-loss teams, and Boston College, then 7-2, the last two-loss P5 team and about to lose three in a row to end things. 

That total of two matches their final total of No. 15 Syracuse and No. 16 A&M.

Second, this FCS schedule thing. It turn out, if that's an FCS schedule, most of FCS plays them. It makes me wonder why we at all need the qualifier. This was the batch of teams they faced:
10-3 Syracuse
9-4 NC State
8-5 Duke
7-6 Wake Forest
7-6 BC
7-7 Pitt
7-6 Ga. Tech
5-7 FSU
2-10 Louisville


Non-Conf
9-4 A&M
10-3 Georgia Southern
7-6 South Carolina
FCS

I'm not gonna say it was a bunch of world beaters and none of them are close to Clemson, but that's fine. Pretty acceptable for a program in a conference  doing nothing to help.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 12:59:52 PM
I thought Bama might beat Clemson in part because I didn't think Clemson had faced that level of physicality.  Syracuse nearly beat them.  I was wrong.

They won rather decisively, though perhaps somehow Bama faded a bit late.  They were not "clicking" against UGA.  I thought that would be a blowout.

Lesson:  If you pick counter to what I pick, you might do well.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 02, 2019, 02:04:33 PM
It's weird, I find myself mildly disagreeing with this. Not because I love the practice, but just because I think the benefit to the non-P5 team is nice assuming we live in a world where teams want to schedule wins.

At a point, a team is trying to get wins in the non-conference and balance home games for revenue reasons. If you say "no FCS" you make Kent State, Tulane and Western Kentucky richer, but you're just kind of moving pieces around. If you're a passible P5 team, you should beat 6-6 Central Michigan anyway, so I don't know it's worlds different than 8-4 Wofford.

And if that's the case, I don't mind letting a bunch of FCS kids get to play in a big stadium and have a story to tell, while infusing those programs with funds they need. Heck, some of those teams turn out pretty good.

I wonder if banning those long term gives G5 teams enough leverage to get more home games, a weird side effect whose value I'm split on. I know Bama set up a 2-for-1 wit USF, though I'm not clear A. if it ever happens, B. What the upside is outside letting kids from that part of the world get a closer look at them in what I assume would be an NFL stadium.
For me, if you only have 12 opportunities to watch your team, plus hopefully a bowl, you should be trying to put a compelling product out there for fans. 

While I [as a fan of a team for whom it's not a foregone conclusion that they'll reach 6 wins] understand the goal of scheduling wins, and of maximizing home games for revenue purposes, I also don't really get excited to watch Purdue play the Indiana State Sycamores. 

And even worse... What if you lose? Purdue has never lost to an FCS team. As much as I love the schadenfreude of watching other teams lose to FCS teams [always a good David v Goliath thing going on there], I don't want to see my own team wear that indignity. It's bad to lose to a MAC team, but it's embarrassing to lose to an FCS team.

Purdue has an OOC this year of @Nevada, Vanderbilt, and TCU. I think those are compelling games to watch, even if Vandy is in the cellar as far as P5 teams go. Purdue mopping the floor with Indiana State isn't a compelling game to watch.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: MichiFan87 on June 02, 2019, 05:44:30 PM
That's how I feel, too.

Michigan is already stuck playing Maryland and Rutgers every year, now. Why not make the non-con schedule as interesting as possible, especially if it could make the difference between making the playoff or not? So far, Warde Manuel has only added MAC teams and Colorado State for future guarantee games, whereas Dave Brandon had scheduled Air Force, Army, UNLV, Hawaii, Cincinnati, SMU, UCF, BYU, Oregon State, and Colorado. Obviously, some of those schools hardly ever agree to guarantee games, but it goes to show that Michigan doesn't have to settle for MAC games.

Even some of the SEC schools are starting to realize this. Florida is finally scheduling non-con series besides Florida State. Alabama is scheduling series instead of just playing a neutral site game every year. Georgia's future non-con games are particularly impressive.

The same applies to non-con scheduling in basketball. Even though the BigTen went to 20 conference games last year, fortunately they primarily displaced guarantee games as opposed to big games.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on June 02, 2019, 07:12:04 PM

Even some of the SEC schools are starting to realize this. Florida is finally scheduling non-con series besides Florida State. 
This is just from turnover in the athletic dept.  Gone is longtime AD Foley, gone has been HC Spurrier.  Zook and Meyer just continued what had been working under Foley & Spurrier.  Well, the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" didn't apply anymore, as things began to break under Muschamp and McElwain.  

So 2 university presidents removed, 3 HCs removed, and a newish AD, Florida finally has new, original minds making such decisions.  The Gators could very well continue playing FSU and 3 cupcakes, and routinely have a top-20 SOS...they're just choosing not to anymore.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2019, 05:43:39 AM
An 8 team playoff, if it happens in a decade, would likely change scheduling practices.  A team would have a shot with a 9-3 or 10-3 record IFF they played a tough OOC slate, even if they were 1-2 in close losses against very good teams.  It's sort of interesting to go back and do a hypo 8 teamer for the past few years and see who likely would be included, and how dicey the choice between 8 and 9 and 10 would be in many cases.

If we use the committee last year, we'd include UGA, OSU, UM, and UCF, and just outside would be three loss UDubb and Florida.

This includes two P5 nonconference winners and one G5 undefeated team obviously.

Imagine Florida had played FSU and Miami and Texas, they might have made the cut.  Maybe.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2019, 06:07:10 AM
IN 2017, the teams that would have made it would have been:

Ohio State (winners of the team most often on the cusp award)
Wisconsin
Auburn (with three losses)
USCw

PSU and Miami just missed at 9 and 10 resp.  The four seed won it that year (in OT), so it's certainly very possible a 5-8 could win it.  Imagine Auburn beat Oklahoma and then won out (they were dinged up late in the year, so they might have been healthy).  They would be 13-3 and National Champion, but not conference champion (which happened anyway).





Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Kris60 on June 03, 2019, 06:38:53 AM
There is really nothing amazing about Clemson’s opponents being ranked when they played them.  First off, it only happened twice during the season.  When they played NC St on October 20 the Wolfpack were 5-0.  Not unusual for a P5 to be ranked with a 5-0 record.

When they played BC on November 10 the Eagles were 7-2.  Again, nothing unusual for a 7-2 P5 team to be ranked that late in the season.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2019, 06:44:58 AM
Of course not, but some folks believe a "fix is in" with a lot of stuff in life that doesn't go the way they see it.  It's human nature.

Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 10:35:16 AM
The same applies to non-con scheduling in basketball. Even though the BigTen went to 20 conference games last year, fortunately they primarily displaced guarantee games as opposed to big games.
I feel the same way and I'm very happy that, at least so far, the two extra conference games appear not to have displaced good OOC games. 

In basketball where losing to a good team doesn't really hurt you it makes sense to schedule tough.  It get you better attendance and more TV exposure with almost zero downside. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 10:41:03 AM
So 2 university presidents removed, 3 HCs removed, and a newish AD, Florida finally has new, original minds making such decisions.  The Gators could very well continue playing FSU and 3 cupcakes, and routinely have a top-20 SOS...they're just choosing not to anymore.
This is a fair take on Florida.  You'll notice that I don't pick on UF schedules the way a lot of B1G fans do.  With the annual FSU OOC game and eight SEC games, the Gator's schedule is typically about what Ohio State's is or better.  Ohio State typically has a "marquee" OOC game (not this year) that is roughly equivalent to FSU (recent examples include Oklahoma, Texas, USC, etc) and then nine league games. 

The big thing that Florida/the SEC are doing that Ohio State/the B1G haven't figured out yet is spacing their tough games in a smart way.  Playing tough games back-to-back-to-back is just not smart but for some reason the B1G has the Buckeyes ending 2019 and 2021 with Penn State and Michigan back-to-back.  If the Buckeyes are fortunate enough to get into the B1GCG and then the CFP Championship that will result in a ridiculous ending slate of:
1)  A good or very good Penn State
2)  A good or very good Michigan
3)  The B1G-W Champion
4)  A CFP team
5)  A CFP semi-final winner. 

Has any CFB team ever won five straight games against opposition that good?  I doubt it. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 10:52:14 AM
Ohio State (winners of the team most often on the cusp award)

Every year of the CFP so far:
2014:
Ohio State was one of three "on the cusp" teams with one loss and a P5 Championship or co-championship along with Baylor and TCU from the B12.  Ohio State got in at #4 while Baylor and TCU were left out as #5 and #6 respectively. 

2015:
As a one-loss non-champion Ohio State didn't have THAT strong of an argument but most (or all) computer rankings had the Buckeyes (11-1, no CG) ahead of the Hawkeyes (12-1, lost CG), the Trees (11-2), and even that Spartans (12-1, B1G Champs) despite Ohio State's loss to MSU. 

2016:
The Buckeyes somewhat controversially got in at 11-1 with no CG appearance and ahead of an 11-2 Penn State team that beat the Buckeyes H2H and won the B1G.  The problem for the Nittany Lions was that they had two losses and both of them were bad (Pitt because they were a mediocre team, Michigan because PSU wasn't competitive). 

2017:
The Buckeyes got back to and won the B1GCG yet finished behind an 11-1 Bama team that had missed the SECCG.  The problem for the Buckeyes was that they had two losses.  The 31-16 early OOC loss to Oklahoma wasn't bad (OU was a CFP team) but the mid-season blowout loss in Iowa City was ugly. 

2018:
The Buckeyes won the second consecutive B1GCG and finished with just one loss but found themselves on the outside looking in anyway.  The problem was that there were three undefeated P5 teams (Bama, Clemson, ND) and another 1-loss P5 Champ (OU) ahead of Ohio State.  Oklahoma's loss was better (close vs TX) and they avenged it in their CG. 

So in five years of the CFP's existence the Buckeyes have NEVER been clearly in nor clearly out.  They have been in the debate range every single year. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 10:58:06 AM
The biggest thing that I think people fail to notice about SoS is that it varies depending on how good your team is. 

The overall strength of the schedule doesn't but the difficulty varies.  Here is what I mean:

Think of two schedules:
Schedule #1:
Four REALLY tough games.  I'm talking top-10ish opponents
Eight cupcakes. 

Schedule #2:
10 mediocre-to-good teams.  I'm talking teams that will likely finish somewhere between barely ranked and a little over .500
Two cupcakes. 

Now, if your team is a potential NC contender than I think that schedule #2 is most favorable.  There are a lot of games that "could" trip you up, but no contests against equals.  If you show up and play well every week, you'll go undefeated.  Conversely, schedule #1 is VERY difficult.  You have four games against equals.  If you go 2-2 against them you'll likely miss the CFP. 

But what if your team is struggling for bowl eligibility?  In that case I'd rather play schedule #1.  You'll almost certainly lose the four tough games but that still leaves room for two upset losses against the cupcakes to get to 6-6 and a bowl bid.  You are much more likely to make a bowl with schedule #1 than you are with schedule #2. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2019, 12:07:44 PM
I agree totally.  But for some team than ends up 2-10 to have a tough schedule, it's not really notable compared with an evidently good team playing an evidently tough slate.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 12:35:09 PM
I agree totally.  But for some team than ends up 2-10 to have a tough schedule, it's not really notable compared with an evidently good team playing an evidently tough slate.
I meant the comment generally but I was also thinking specifically of aTm.  If they are a REALLY good team, like NC contender good then this schedule is a catastrophe for them.  They travel to Clemson, UGA, and LSU plus host Bama.  Going 2-2 through that would frankly be miraculous and that would probably keep them out of the SECCG which would leave them with almost zero chance at the CFP as a 10-2 team with no Championship. 

On the other hand, if aTm sucks this year, the schedule looks pretty favorable.  TxSt, Lamar, and UTSA should get them half way to bowl eligibility without even needing their starters to play.  Even a weaker mediocre team should then be able to win three out of Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, MissST, and USCe. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2019, 03:19:18 PM
if the Aggies are truly MNC contenders, 3-1 is achievable.

We would expect Clemson or Bama to go 3-1  
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 03:30:14 PM
if the Aggies are truly MNC contenders, 3-1 is achievable.

We would expect Clemson or Bama to go 3-1 
With three of the four on the road, I don't think so unless one of the three turns out to be dramatically worse than expected. 

I still think that 2-2 would be an accomplishment even for a legitimate NC contender. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2019, 03:41:48 PM
well, if Bama or Clemson went 2-2, they are more than likely out of the playoff

I agree, it would be an accomplishment, but not miraculous.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 03, 2019, 03:46:28 PM
well, if Bama or Clemson went 2-2, they are more than likely out of the playoff

I agree, it would be an accomplishment, but not miraculous.
I do think that the committee takes SoS into account and thus I think that if aTm went 2-2 through that then got to and won the SECCG they would absolutely get in with an 11-2 record.  If aTm loses to Clemson OOC and to UGA in a cross-divisional game then they would still control their own destiny to win the SEC-W and that would get them in. 

That said, I agree with you that a team that went 2-2 against that slate is more than likely out because they would more than likely not win their division and a 2-loss team can't realistically make the CFP without a Championship. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2019, 03:52:26 PM
an 11-2 team would need some help from the other contenders, but yes it's very possible

would be tough if the Sooners, Buckeyes, Clemson Tigers, and Washington Huskies all went undefeated, but.......... little chance of that
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 03, 2019, 04:03:06 PM
The same applies to non-con scheduling in basketball. Even though the BigTen went to 20 conference games last year, fortunately they primarily displaced guarantee games as opposed to big games.
I'm less concerned about a few pastries in basketball. I don't want Purdue scheduling too many schools way down at the very bottom of RPI/NET/KenPom, but schools in the 101-250 ranking ranges are great as tune-up games. 

But this is partly due to the fact that with 20 conference games, the ACC/B1G challenge, the Gavitt Games, and generally one "tournament" scheduled each year, you know you're going to get some good games OOC. On top of Purdue and Indiana always facing Notre Dame or Butler each year in the Crossroads Classic.

So if you load up a few guaranteed wins in early December, it's not as meaningful, especially when you're looking at 31 regular season games plus the B1G tournament plus the NCAAT. 
 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2019, 04:05:38 PM
Aggies have a top-heavy schedule that's for sure.  But it's also rather bottom-heavy, to be honest. Regardless it should be an exciting season for them.

My i s c & a aggie wife's Aggie dad offered to get us all tickets to the A&M-Alabama game this year, but unfortunately it's the same weekend as TX-OU so we'll be at the State Fair in Dallas.



Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2019, 04:30:55 PM
good call
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2019, 04:47:36 PM
I'd love to go to that game, but the timing this year is unfortunate, that's for sure.  We'll make it to a game in Aggieland at some point this year, but unfortunately it'll probably be one of those gimme games from the bottom-heavy portion of their schedule.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 04, 2019, 10:13:16 AM
I'm less concerned about a few pastries in basketball.
I actually look at this exactly the other way around.  As I see it, scheduling pastries in basketball serves no good purpose whatsoever. 

In football the old adage that a lot of coaches (cough-Bill Snyder-cough) go by is "never schedule a loss".  That can be very important in football.  As Penn State circa 2016 whether it was a good idea to schedule Pitt.  Without that Pitt loss the Nittany Lions likely would have made the CFP.  Ask Ohio State circa 2017 whether it was a good idea to schedule Oklahoma.  Without that Oklahoma loss the Buckeyes likely would have made the CFP. 

In basketball a few losses to good teams almost never keeps you out of the tournament.  The sport much more explicitly considers SoS when making their selections.  I see the risks of upgrading your BB schedule as substantially lower than the risks of upgrading your FB SoS. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2019, 03:05:31 PM
I actually look at this exactly the other way around.  As I see it, scheduling pastries in basketball serves no good purpose whatsoever. 

In football the old adage that a lot of coaches (cough-Bill Snyder-cough) go by is "never schedule a loss".  That can be very important in football.  As Penn State circa 2016 whether it was a good idea to schedule Pitt.  Without that Pitt loss the Nittany Lions likely would have made the CFP.  Ask Ohio State circa 2017 whether it was a good idea to schedule Oklahoma.  Without that Oklahoma loss the Buckeyes likely would have made the CFP. 

In basketball a few losses to good teams almost never keeps you out of the tournament.  The sport much more explicitly considers SoS when making their selections.  I see the risks of upgrading your BB schedule as substantially lower than the risks of upgrading your FB SoS. 
All I'm saying is that you can do both... In the B1G, you have 11 OOC games to schedule. With the right tournament, the ACC/B1G challenge, possibly Gavitt Games, for Purdue the now traditional Crossroads Classic, and then trying to find a good game elsewhere, you can get plenty of good games in there. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: ELA on June 04, 2019, 03:22:32 PM
I'm less concerned about a few pastries in basketball. I don't want Purdue scheduling too many schools way down at the very bottom of RPI/NET/KenPom, but schools in the 101-250 ranking ranges are great as tune-up games.

But this is partly due to the fact that with 20 conference games, the ACC/B1G challenge, the Gavitt Games, and generally one "tournament" scheduled each year, you know you're going to get some good games OOC. On top of Purdue and Indiana always facing Notre Dame or Butler each year in the Crossroads Classic.

So if you load up a few guaranteed wins in early December, it's not as meaningful, especially when you're looking at 31 regular season games plus the B1G tournament plus the NCAAT.
 
That's what people are talking about, those 200+ games that cancel out any good games you schedule.  You might as well just schedule all 100-175 type teams and go undefeated, you'll have the same SOS, but without any losses.
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on June 04, 2019, 03:28:02 PM
That's what people are talking about, those 200+ games that cancel out any good games you schedule.  You might as well just schedule all 100-175 type teams and go undefeated, you'll have the same SOS, but without any losses.
You and I have talked about this before and, as you know, I strongly agree and this is one of my big pet peeves with BB scheduling.  I think with those "tune-up" games you should aim for a team at roughly 125-175.  If they have a really good year they might end up being a ~50 team that could beat you and if they have a really bad year they might end up being a ~250 team the drags down your SoS but it still will not be THAT bad.  Scheduling a bunch of ~250 teams is what bothers me.  Even when they have a relatively good year they still aren't good for your SoS and in a bad year they really drag it down. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: bayareabadger on June 04, 2019, 03:30:05 PM
That's what people are talking about, those 200+ games that cancel out any good games you schedule.  You might as well just schedule all 100-175 type teams and go undefeated, you'll have the same SOS, but without any losses.
Hooray for SOS being secret garbage. 
Title: Re: Toughest schedules in 2019
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on June 04, 2019, 04:09:19 PM
You and I have talked about this before and, as you know, I strongly agree and this is one of my big pet peeves with BB scheduling.  I think with those "tune-up" games you should aim for a team at roughly 125-175.  If they have a really good year they might end up being a ~50 team that could beat you and if they have a really bad year they might end up being a ~250 team the drags down your SoS but it still will not be THAT bad.  Scheduling a bunch of ~250 teams is what bothers me.  Even when they have a relatively good year they still aren't good for your SoS and in a bad year they really drag it down. 
Yeah, I looked at Purdue's NET sheet (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/team-net-sheet?team=Purdue) from last year.

You may not think of Belmont or Davidson as "strong" wins, but both climbed to Tier 2. Purdue saw Notre Dame (usually good enough to be Tier 2) slip into Tier 3, and Ball State finished in Tier 3 but still a respectable 131st in the NET rankings.

Ohio I think was expected to be "decent", but dropped to tier 4 at 175 in NET. Still not badly scheduled IMHO.

Most of those teams (absent ND who just had a bad year) are essentially G5 equivalent. Which is fine when your OOC also includes VTech, FSU, Texas, all of whom ended up top-half Tier 1.

App State, Robert Morris, and Fairfield are a little below what I'd like to see Purdue schedule. That's FCS-equivalent. Those are teams who it almost hurts you to beat because they drag your SOS down more than a win helps your ranking.