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Topic: The Club of Helmets

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Cincydawg

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The Club of Helmets
« on: July 21, 2021, 12:53:45 PM »
One of our favorite topics.  My list, and feel free to ..., is:

Texas  USC  Notre Dame  Bama  OSU (The)  OU  Michigan Nebraska

Just out: Penn State, and then somewhere near the club, Clemson, UGA, UF, LSU,  ....    FSU, Miami, Wisconsin, grey area

I might be forgetting somebody, like Easter Michigan.

In the Club but slipping are USC Texas Nebraska, and Michigan somewhat.  You could argue Nebbie has slipped.

Out but gaining is Clemson, UGA ....?

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2021, 03:20:04 PM »
In the past 50 years, Texas and ND aren't in the top 10 and are behind Georgia, Florida, and Clemson in win%.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2021, 03:44:07 PM »
I don't see any reason the Penn State is not a helmet. They certainly fit the bill.

U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2021, 04:11:22 PM »
It's an opinion, but in my opinion, we have to go back more than 50 years.  A lot is perception.

847badgerfan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2021, 04:22:45 PM »
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2021, 04:25:59 PM »
I don't think the Club is determined by statistics of any sort, obviously they play a role.  It could be the teams that were often on TV back when we have one game of the week sort of thing.

I sometimes think of it as teams I'd be super excited to hear we're going to play in the future.  There are other teams I'd like to see scheduled of course, but if USC showed up on the list I would think it was pretty cool, even if they are bad.


847badgerfan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2021, 04:30:03 PM »
It was nice to see UW beat USC a few years back.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2021, 04:40:19 PM »
The Dawgs have Clemson, UCLA, Oregon, and Oklahoma in the next years followed by Texas and FSU, Texas and Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State, so they are pairing up with some helmets and near helmets over the next decade.  USC would be a nice add.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2021, 05:40:25 PM »
It's an opinion, but in my opinion, we have to go back more than 50 years.  A lot is perception.
Maybe, but IMHO probably not much more than 50 years and possibly not at all.  

One concept here that I consider is "living memory".  Most people don't remember a lot from before they were about 10 years old.  Sure, you'll remember things with your family and within your house and school before you were 10, but most people don't remember much about CFB games played when they were <10 or so.  

Example, Woody was hired by Ohio State in 1951 and won his first NC in 1954.  When I was a kid (80's) there were a LOT of people around Ohio who remembered both of those things.  It had only been 30-40 years prior so anyone 50 or older could remember it.  Now . . .  If you turned 10 the year Woody was hired you'll turn 80 this year.  How many people really remember Woody's hiring or remember watching games from the 1954 season when Woody won his first NC?  Precious few IMHO.  My dad did but he was born in 1940 and died earlier this year.  

Certainly anything past 70 years is outside the living memory of all but a handful of elderly fans.  Winning Percentage from 1951-2020:
1Ohio State0.7747560317015788
2Oklahoma0.7635762719012829
3Alabama0.7312859721417828
4Penn State0.723805842216811
5Nebraska0.700725792458832
6Michigan0.6968654823512795
7Southern Cal0.6960355223618806
8Texas0.6939056424610820
9Notre Dame0.6762552424811783
10Georgia0.6729454626117824

11Florida0.6717454326117821
12Auburn0.6703653926212813
13Florida State0.6644052926317809
14Louisiana State0.6642253426520819
15Tennessee0.6553052827320821
16Clemson0.6503152327814815
17Miami-Florida0.643665152845804
18Arizona State0.640965032808791
19Virginia Tech0.6122848830711806
20Brigham Young0.609305003199828

21West Virginia0.6058947830911798
22UCLA0.6013946830719794
23Arkansas0.6013648131711809
24Fresno State0.591304733266805
25Washington0.5902346532112798
26Southern Miss0.589764633217791
27Louisiana Tech0.585283972809686
28Miami-Ohio0.5820243531017762
29Mississippi0.5803045532715797
30Texas A&amp;M
Texas A&M
0.5798346133215808

Then I think you need a hard-to-define, "some but not too much" recency bias so here is the same list for the last 35 years:
1Ohio State0.78388333905428
2Florida State0.746513201082430
3Oklahoma0.744903271113441
4Alabama0.730233141160430
5Miami-Florida0.723903121190431
6Florida0.719953171231441
7Clemson0.709933131273443
8Nebraska0.709573111271439
9Georgia0.707293101281439
10Michigan0.700002991274430

11Penn State0.692582981321431
12Auburn0.680142921365433
13Louisiana State0.679812921372431
14Southern Cal0.675002811345420
15Oregon0.669002871420429
16Notre Dame0.664232721372411
17Virginia Tech0.657892861483437
18Texas0.657412831472432
19Texas A&amp;M
Texas A&M
0.656682841482434
20Brigham Young0.654712911532446

21Tennessee0.652422811493433
22Wisconsin0.627592711604435
23Toledo0.624702561534413
24Utah0.619052601600420
25West Virginia0.617652611613425
26Texas Christian0.609792551631419
27Iowa0.609562591655429
28Fresno State0.594912561742432
29Washington0.591232481713422
30Louisville0.587682471732422

In my view, if you aren't on both lists, you aren't in the discussion.  If you are, we can talk.  So here are the teams on both lists:
  • Ohio State is #1 on both, obviously a helmet.  
  • Oklahoma is 2/3, obviously a helmet.  
  • Alabama is 3/4, obviously a helmet.  
  • Nebraska is 5/8 . . . I think they are a helmet but it has been a long time since they've been a serious NC contender.  
  • Florida State is 13/2 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • Penn State is 4/11 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • Michigan is 6/10 . . . I think they are a helmet but it has been a long time since they've been consistently elite.  
  • Florida is 11/6 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • Georgia is 10/9 . . . I think they are awfully close.  
  • USC is 7/14 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • MiamiFL is 17/5 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • Clemson is 16/7 . . . I think they are awfully close, closer than UGA due to hardware.  
  • Auburn is 12/12 . . . I think they are close.  
  • Notre Dame is 9/16 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • Texas is 8/18 . . . I think they are a helmet.  
  • LSU is 14/13 . . . I think they are a helmet but it is a close call.  
  • VaTech is 19/17 . . . I do NOT think they are a helmet.  
  • Tennessee is 15/21 . . . I think they are a former helmet.  
  • BYU is 20/20 . . . I do NOT think they are a helmet.  
  • WVU is 21/25 . . . I do NOT think they are a helmet.  
  • FresnoSt is 24/28 . . . I do NOT think they are a helmet.  
  • Washington is 25/29 . . . I do NOT think they are a helmet.  
  • aTm is 30/19 . . . I do NOT think they are a helmet.  
Thus, my "helmets" are:
  • Ohio State
  • Oklahoma
  • Alabama
  • Nebraska
  • Florida State
  • Penn State
  • Michigan
  • Florida
  • USC
  • MiamiFL
  • Notre Dame
  • Texas
  • LSU
Of those 13, Nebraska and Michigan are on the shakiest ground at this point IMHO.  

Then you have a list of near-helmets that are close and threatening to become helmets:
  • Georgia:  Has the win% but lacks the hardware.  
  • Clemson:  Has the hardware but lacks the proven staying-power.  
  • Auburn:  Close in both.  



Cincydawg

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2021, 05:43:51 PM »
My listing is subjective, by definition, as I think about it.  It's in large part which programs are known to casual fans as being good, even if they aren't, and they will think when say Michigan plays say Clemson, Michigan should win.  I think it also impacts the polls.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2021, 05:44:54 PM »
It's an opinion, but in my opinion, we have to go back more than 50 years.  A lot is perception.
Of course it matters, but how much does it matter?  Half of the top programs from the first half of the last century aren't even FBS anymore.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2021, 05:46:03 PM »

Any list with Tennessee in the top 10 isn't much of a list. I think even Vols fans would acknowledge that.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2021, 05:47:52 PM »
My listing is subjective, by definition, as I think about it.  It's in large part which programs are known to casual fans as being good, even if they aren't, and they will think when say Michigan plays say Clemson, Michigan should win.  I think it also impacts the polls.


You're describing 70 year old women.  No one directly involved with the game is like this.  The players aren't, the coaches aren't, and the fans aren't.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: The Club of Helmets
« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2021, 05:50:21 PM »
You're describing 70 year old women.  No one directly involved with the game is like this.  The players aren't, the coaches aren't, and the fans aren't.
Maybe I need to define what I mean by "casual fans".  Few 70 year old women are that.  And certainly players and coaches aren't,  but MANY fans are.

 

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