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Topic: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)
(Read 6593 times)

SuperMario · « **Reply #126 on:** October 01, 2023, 12:34:12 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2023, 11:09:09 AM

True and I'll add that it is entirely possible that ND played well against tOSU and poorly against Duke.

OTOH, the opposite is also a possibility.

We'll find out.

Very fair statement. Both games could have gone either way on one play. My opinion of OSU skyrocketed last week, most specifically because of their defensive line and pressure. After seeing Duke put tons of pressure Hartman, I’m wondering if Duke also has a great D-line or my opinion of the OSU defensive line wasn’t quite accurate.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #127 on:** October 01, 2023, 01:05:14 PM »

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1708249309568004261?s=20

Cincydawg · « **Reply #128 on:** October 01, 2023, 01:30:30 PM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on October 01, 2023, 12:49:36 PM

transitive property is useless.

I think it's better than completely useless, but obviously it can be misleading. If Team A trounces B and C and D and Team Z barely edges the same, it probably means something.

Kris60 · « **Reply #129 on:** October 01, 2023, 03:54:30 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2023, 01:30:30 PM

I think it's better than completely useless, but obviously it can be misleading. If Team A trounces B and C and D and Team Z barely edges the same, it probably means something.

The more common opponents two teams play the more I think you can read a little something into it.

ELA · « **Reply #130 on:** October 01, 2023, 04:18:22 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 30, 2023, 12:46:33 PM

I'm sure his agent has reached out to MSU.

All he will get is a horizontal transfer, at best. He's in year 7 and this is the program he's built? Add to that all of the clownish crap. Maybe WMU would take him back. Maybe?

No major program will take him unless he loses the clown show act.

His agent reached out in 2020, and was told no thank you. Not sure his profile has increased since then

847badgerfan · « **Reply #131 on:** October 02, 2023, 06:16:48 AM »

That's kinda what I wrote.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #132 on:** October 02, 2023, 08:21:34 AM »

So, have you seen a team this year you watched and thought "Hey, they look really good" for more than a game?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #133 on:** October 02, 2023, 09:14:41 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2023, 01:30:30 PM

I think it's better than completely useless, but obviously it can be misleading. If Team A trounces B and C and D and Team Z barely edges the same, it probably means something.

Agreed, specifically:

Quote from: Kris60 on October 01, 2023, 03:54:30 PM

The more common opponents two teams play the more I think you can read a little something into it.

I've long said that the problem with the transitive property is not that the theory is bunk, it is that people try to use it with insufficient data.

The most recent obvious example in the B1G was MSU's 2021 win over Michigan. MSU beat Michigan by four and that same MSU team lost to Purdue by 11 and to Ohio State by 49 in a game that wasn't even that close. Thus Purdue and Ohio State were better than Michigan, right? Well, no. Michigan didn't play Purdue but would have throttled them and beat tOSU by 15.

What happened?

The first thing we need to acknowledge, IMHO, is that no team plays the same every week. Teams have great games, good games, average games, below average games, and bad games.

MSU had a great game against Michigan and Michigan had *MAYBE* an average game. That is why I said above that we don't know yet how well tOSU, ND, and Duke played in their games against each other. If:

tOSU played average or worse against ND, and
ND played great against tOSU, and
ND played average or worse against Duke, and
Duke played great against ND

Then I feel really good about this year's tOSU team.

OTOH, if:

tOSU played great against ND, and
ND played average or worse against tOSU, and
ND played great against Duke, and
Duke played average or worse against ND

Then Ohio State is terrible this year.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #134 on:** October 02, 2023, 09:24:31 AM »

We all use syllogism, and so do the rankers and odds setters, it's necessary, but not sufficient. Upsets happen (duh). They mean something, close wins mean something too.

UGA nearly lost to Auburn, it was 50-50 or so for a while. That would have dropped them from 1st to maybe 12th or so. Same team, ball tipped a different way, major shift in perceptions.

This also highlights a problem with a soft schedule, had UGA lost, they don't have much left to regain #1 status. If they won out and made the playoffs, fine, but they'd likely not be a one seed (to the extent that matters).

utee94 · « **Reply #135 on:** October 02, 2023, 09:47:18 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 02, 2023, 08:21:34 AM

So, have you seen a team this year you watched and thought "Hey, they look really good" for more than a game?

I haven't seen Georgia or tOSU play yet.

I've seen Michigan, FSU, USC, and of course Texas play, multiple times each. None of them look like world beaters that's for sure, but all of them have plenty of talent and potential.

I really do want to catch the Bulldogs and Buckeyes though, probably not this weekend since I'll be at the State Fair.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #136 on:** October 02, 2023, 09:57:10 AM »

FSU has looked pretty solid at times, as has Texas (headed to 15-0 perhaps). At this point, I think the top teams are all pretty good, but not elite.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #137 on:** October 02, 2023, 12:23:49 PM »

Michigan top 3-5 of these net success rates every single week. Yes Nebraska, you really got beat that bad.

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1708847266411540750?s=20

Mdot21 · « **Reply #138 on:** October 02, 2023, 12:34:37 PM »

Jawjaw showing cracks in the armor? haven't exactly played a murderous row yet either....

Mdot21 · « **Reply #139 on:** October 02, 2023, 12:38:12 PM »

SP+ creator Bill Connelly on Michigan...

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1708817354279547155?s=20

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Topic: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

SuperMario

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Mdot21

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Cincydawg

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Kris60

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

ELA

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

847badgerfan

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Cincydawg

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

medinabuckeye1

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Cincydawg

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

utee94

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Cincydawg

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Mdot21

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Mdot21

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)

Mdot21

Re: The Ballad of Harbaugh and Haarberg (SOC 9/30/23)