Week 13 Tournament projection, followed by scenarios going into the final week
11 TCU
7 MIAMI
NOON - espn2
TROY
1 CLEMSON
1:30 - ESPN
12 STANFORD
6 GEORGIA
3:00 - ABC
TOLEDO
3 OKLAHOMA
4:30 - espn2
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
2 AUBURN
6:00 - ESPN
10 USC
8 OHIO STATE
7:30 - ABC
14 CENTRAL FLORIDA
5 ALABAMA
9:00 - espn2
25 FRESNO STATE
4 WISCONSIN
10:30 - ESPN
The scenarios for teams that have a shot, with Notre Dame addressed at the bottom in the general summary
ACC
#1 Clemson - clinches auto-bid with a win, almost certainly still in with a loss
#7 Miami - clinches auto-bid with a win, fairly certainly still in with a loss
BIG XII
#3 Oklahoma - clinches auto-bid win a win, almost certainly still in with a loss
#11 TCU - clinches auto-bid with a win, with a loss, depends on how far they fall, would likely have to stay ahead of both Notre Dame and Michigan State to get in
BIG TEN
#4 Wisconsin - clinches auto-bid with a win, almost certainly still in with a loss
#8 Ohio State - clinches auto-bid with a win, with a loss, have to determine if they remain in the top 6 non-champs
#9 Penn State - difficult to get in because they cannot get in without both Ohio State and Michigan State getting in, and it's nearly impossible for a situation where Michigan State gets in as anything other than the final at large (see below)
#16 Michigan State - need to move into the top 6 non-champions, however they would get in over Penn State, even if they finish behind them in the rankings. The ACC, SEC and Big Ten Championship Game losers, plus Alabama are nearly assured of four spots. They also will likely remain behind Notre Dame and Washington, however, Washington can not get in over Stanford. So Michigan State's likely only path is for (1) USC to beat Stanford, (2) Oklahoma to beat TCU, (3) Stanford and TCU to fall behind Michigan State, and (4) nobody to jump Michigan State from behind. Then Michigan State would join Notre Dame, Alabama and the ACC, SEC and Big Ten championship losers as the six at larges. Jumping Notre Dame would make the path clearer, but I don't see anyway that happens with both teams off, and Notre Dame having a convincing head to head win. Additionally the only win either team has that could gain value over the weekend would be Notre Dame's over USC.
PAC 12
#10 USC - clinches auto-bid with a win, would likely need to stay ahead of two out of Washington, Notre Dame and Michigan State with a loss (three, including TCU if TCU loses)
#12 Stanford - clinches auto-bid win a win, would likely need to stay ahead of one out of Notre Dame or Michigan State with a loss (see MSU summary)
#13 Washington - because they can not get in over Stanford, it will be nearly impossible to get in if Stanford is in the at large pool. However, with a Stanford win over USC they would almost assuredly be in, and would eliminate Michigan State
SEC
#2 Auburn - clinches auto-bid with a win, almost certainly still in with a loss
#5 Alabama - essentially clinched an at large bid
#6 Georgia - clinches auto-bid with a win, almost certainly still in with a loss
#17 LSU - they basically have the same path as Michigan State (see MSU summary above) with the added caveat that they also have to jump Michigan State. With both teams on bye, that would seem unlikely, but an Auburn win over Georgia would make it possible, because it would give LSU a win over a conference champion, something Michigan State cannot get, because they didn't play Wisconsin and didn't beat Ohio State. That win might make Auburn #1, and might boost LSU's resume enough to jump them up a spot or two, or at least over Michigan State and possibly Notre Dame.
AMERICAN
#14 Central Florida - almost certain they have to win and clinch the auto-bid to get in, but slight chance, if the committee doesn't drop their ranking more than 1 slot, that they could get an at large, but it seems unlikely
#20 Memphis - have to win and get the auto-bid to get in
CONFERENCE USA, MAC, MOUNTAIN WEST
Only the Conference Championship Game winners will get in
SUN BELT
The last conference without a Conference Championship Game. They also don't have close to a full round robin. Currently Troy, Arkansas State and Appalachian State are tied for 1st at 6-1. Georgia State is 5-2, but Troy plays Arkansas State this week, so at least one team in guaranteed to finish 7-1, eliminating Georgia State.
Because the Sun Belt has no reason in reality to tiebreak conference championships, it's unclear if measures are in place, but I did find a 2015 article laying them out, so I'm going with that. This would actually give the final weekend in the Sun Belt some excitement.
APPALACHIAN STATE - win; AND have Arkansas State beat Troy AND Georgia State beat Idaho AND South Alabama beat NM State
ARKANSAS STATE - win; AND have (1) Appalachian State lose to UL Lafayette, or (2) Idaho beat Georgia State, or (3) NM State beat South Alabama
TROY - win
OVERALL AT LARGE PICTURE
4 of the 6 slots basically wrapped up
#5 Alabama - Probably the only assured at large as of now
SEC Championship Game loser - Probably guaranteed, even in a blowout
ACC Championship Game loser - Probably safe, if Miami loses a blowout, they might be sweating a bit
Big Ten Championship Game loser - Probably safe, if Ohio State loses a blowout, they might be a little nervous
Then for the other 2 spots
#3 Oklahoma - safe with a loss, even a blowout loss, other at large teams need to be rooting for the Sooners
#9 Penn State - the fact that they are 3rd in their division, makes them essentially eliminated, because they can't get in over Michigan State. They somehow need Michigan State to get in, but not as the last team, which is nearly impossible considering I don't see a way Michigan State jumps Notre Dame
#10 USC - they would be in trouble with a loss, because they don't get protection vs. Washington like Stanford does, and they have a head to head blowout loss to Notre Dame, so with another loss the committee might see little reason to keep USC ahead of ND. With only two spots open, it's tough to see USC staying ahead of both Washington and Notre Dame (independent of anyone else) with a loss
#11 TCU - need to root for USC on Friday night, ideally big. That would give Stanford a loss, but put them in the at large pool, meaning Washington couldn't get in over Stanford. Assuming the TCU and Stanford losses are in a way that TCU doesn't drop below Stanford, they would also need to avoid dropping below both Notre Dame and Michigan State
#12 Stanford - the one advantage they have is it doesn't matter being behind Washington. A more impressive loss to USC than a TCU loss to Oklahoma also opens the possibility that TCU falls farther. It also helps that they hold a decisive win over Notre Dame and Notre Dame holds a decisive win over Michigan State. Head to head isn't everything, but with a loss, they would likely drop right into the ND/MSU range, and those decisive head to head results may serve as a defacto tiebreaker, keeping Stanford above the other two
#13 Washington - probably the weirdest case because of their relationship with Stanford. They are ideally slotted to lock up an at large, but the fact that they can't get in over Stanford makes a Cardinal loss a problem. If Stanford beats USC, Washington is almost a lock for an at large, absent both TCU winning AND USC somehow dropping less than 3 spots. However if USC wins, Washington is basically eliminated, as they need Stanford to get in, but as the #5, not #6 at large
#14 Central Florida - probably a long shot, because they would need to essentially hold their position with a loss to Memphis, which I don't see happening. If they do, it throws a wrench in the whole thing
#15 Notre Dame - should be rooting for Stanford over USC, so that USC enters the at large pool, where the committee is more likely to drop them behind the Irish, due to Notre Dame's convincing head to head win, rather than Stanford, who just beat Notre Dame convincingly last week. The flip side is a Stanford win basically locks up a spot for Washington, so Notre Dame would also need to hope TCU falls farther than them.
#16 Michigan State - more thoroughly addressed above. They need USC and Oklahoma to win, and Stanford and TCU to then fall behind them in the rankings, while avoiding any team behind them (LSU) jumping over them
#17 LSU - same as Michigan State, except they also need to jump the Spartans. As addressed above, the best chance of this is for Auburn to beat Georgia, and therefore LSU picking up a win over a conference champ (and possibly the #1 overall team)
