At the end of the day, every single Hail Mary pass is a very low percentage play. I’d venture to guess that maybe a 1% success rate would be generous.
I watched it live, and I don’t recall seeing many replays, but the WM players were behind the Michigan players, it landed right on the goal line. It was always a low percentage play, and I felt it was poorly defended. I almost sorta believe that the first Hail Mary going too deep setup the 2nd Hail Mary perfectly due to the fact that a lot of the WMU guys were behind the receiver.
Also, how many times do we see a Hail Mary where they just rush the QB on the final play and sack him before he can get a throw off, or put him under enough duress where the pass doesn’t even get close to the end zone. It usually takes a good 3-5 seconds for the WR to even get downfield in the first place, so odds are even that you can sack him behind the LOS anyways.