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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17234 on: January 27, 2022, 07:04:07 PM »
To be honest, I haven't seen anything that suggests Omicron BA.2 is really any more of a concern than Omicron BA.1. Doesn't seem to be exploding the cases, nor causing more deaths, nor having any more or less immunity evasion.

But I figured it was worth passing along...
yep

you should consider following this doctor's videos if youre not already
He knows his stuff
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17235 on: January 28, 2022, 09:48:29 AM »
Who is going to read all this mess anyway?  I presume much of it is tables of data.  I don't see anything nefarious in this at all.  The studies were reviewed by the FDA, and other very similar studies were done in other countries, and with other vaccines.

To think this is some gotcha moment strikes me as a bit bizarre.
who do you think is going to read it? a team of experts/doctors and professionals who are suing the FDA to get their hands on it. 

You don't see anything nefarious in the FDA trying to ask for SEVENTY YEARS (when all of us will be dead) to release all the data? Federal judge laughed the FDA out of court, told them no bitch, you have 8 months, not SEVENTY FIVE YEARS release it all now. The FDA was suppose to start dumping in March, now they are asking the judge to stall til May and Pfizer has joined the lawsuit as a 3rd party. 

Pfizer has never been sued by the federal government in civil and criminal court for fraud and falsifying data. Oh wait, they have! A lot. Pfizer has paid the single largest criminal fine in US history. Lmao. No big deal, whatever. 

Who said it's a gotcha moment? We have no idea what's in those files, and we won't until they are released. TRANSPARENCY in government is a GOOD thing. To think it's OK for a federal bureaucracy to try and obfuscate, stall, delay, and not be transparent and open is ok, well that strikes me as EXTREMELY bizarre. Not a bit. 

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17236 on: January 28, 2022, 09:52:50 AM »
I would guess they had folks review the data and holding meetings on it, but I'm talking about "us" in the public, I can't think of many who would delve into it, it's not their job to do it.  It's the job of folks at the FDA to review the clinical data, and they do it as their routine job.  There were multiple clinicals on several vaccine types in various countries.  I'm pretty sure most of the paperwork is things like consent forms, data tables, lists of who ran the clinical, signed forms that it was run according to Hoyle, stuff like that.  Boring.

The FDA boys would flip through that for the data on the actual clinical results.
Again, it's not some random Joe Schmo idiot who has no idea what to do with these documents or what any of them mean that is suing the FDA. It's a non-profit called the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency. It's a team of public health professionals, medical professionals, and scientists. They will pour through all the data with a fine tooth comb. And if they find any irregularities or fraud by Pfizer, well it will be game on.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17237 on: January 28, 2022, 09:56:39 AM »
How did the FDA read it all in the first place?
LOL. Only took them 108 days to pour through the data and approve Pfizer....but they told the courts they needed SEVENTY FIVE YEARS to release all the data. :043:

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17238 on: January 28, 2022, 10:14:47 AM »
On what date did the rotten FDA grant the emergency approval?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17239 on: January 28, 2022, 10:45:52 AM »
On what date did the rotten FDA grant the emergency approval?
I believe it was Dec. 11th, 2020. And it took them 108 days for the approval. But they were asking for 75 years- like they killed Kennedy or something- to release everything. LOL. The Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency non-profit organization actually asked Pfizer for the data/files. Pfizer told them no. That's why they had to sue the FDA via FOIA to get the Pfizer data. Why did Pfizer instantly reject and flatly say no? Why did the FDA ask for SEVENTY FIVE YEARS to release everything. Why is the FDA now trying to stall in court and delay the release? If these things don't make your bullshit detectors go haywire- yeah, something is wrong with you.

And I am glad you brought that bolded & highlighted part up. I think what many people here are missing is that the FDA has been completely captured by Big Pharma. The regulators that are suppose to be regulating industries on behalf of the public have been captured and controlled by said industries. It's called regulatory capture. This has happened virtually across the board in every sector of the US economy. Which is why the US has become one of the most corrupt countries on planet earth. Nearly half of the FDA's entire budget comes from the companies they are suppose to be regulating via "industry user fees". The FDA used to be 100% tax-payer funded, as it should be- and it wasn't until 1992 when Congress/Bush I signed into law the Prescription Drug User Fee Act - which switched the FDA's funding from completely 100% tax-payer funded to some bullshit system where new drug user fees wound up accounting for about half the departments budget just 25 years later. It's created a system where approving more and more drugs leads to the FDA getting more and more money for their budget. It creates a situation where the more drugs they approve, the more money they can charge in annual fees- and as right now the user fees are about 48% of their god damn budget. Makes no sense.

Should've never passed the Prescription Drug User Fee Act- it's hurt this country. Just like passing NAFTA, passing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, expanding NATO eastward, slashing taxes for decades while NEVER cutting spending, pushing for China to join WTO and normalizing permanent trade relations with them, drone bombing the shit out of people, fighting endless wars, running a torture chamber in Cuba, building a massive spying apparatus with no oversight or controls aimed at it's own citizens- everything those f**king MORONS did in the 80s & 90s & 00's has eroded this country, it's middle class, made us less free, less safe, made the everyday working class people less well off while the elites and wealthy just got richer and richer.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17240 on: January 28, 2022, 10:51:15 AM »
No, I don't see anything nefarious in asking for 75 years to review the data.  This is a standard negotiating tactic.  They calculated how long it would take "normally" to review the information and came up with 75 years.  They have to review it to ensure no patients are revealed in the data.

The folks who assessed the information reviewed only the parts relevant to said assessment, not all the pages related to other things, as I noted above.  They are well versed in assessing clinical data, if one is experienced in that area it's not that hard.  The actual clinical results were probably captured in ten pages or so.

One idea would be to narrow the FOIA request to just the important clinical results and skip the other stuff that is not relevant.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17241 on: January 28, 2022, 10:52:52 AM »
No, I don't see anything nefarious in asking for 75 years to review the data.  This is a standard negotiating tactic.  They calculated how long it would take "normally" to review the information and came up with 75 years.  They have to review it to ensure no patients are revealed in the data.

The folks who assessed the information reviewed only the parts relevant to said assessment, not all the pages related to other things, as I noted above.  They are well versed in assessing clinical data, if one is experienced in that area it's not that hard.  The actual clinical results were probably captured in ten pages or so.

One idea would be to narrow the FOIA request to just the important clinical results and skip the other stuff that is not relevant.
:043:

Standard negotiating tactic. Right. You're funny.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17242 on: January 28, 2022, 10:58:48 AM »
btw the FDA tried arguing in court that it needed 75 years because....it's center for biologics evaluation and research which maintains the records has only 10 employees, and 2 of them are new. Yeah, and the dog ate my homework. Lmao.

FDA has 18,000+ employees. They can easily re-assign employees- and they have billions of dollars in there budget which means...they could also hire an outside contractor to help them release the documents.

Give me a break.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17243 on: January 28, 2022, 10:59:49 AM »
I've been involved in suits before, and this is indeed a typical tactic by one side or the other.

And it does take time to go through material requested by the other side in disclosure to ensure nothing is being leaked.  I'm sure the clinical reports include a lot of pages with personal information of the test subjects that have to be excised, legally, plus their signed consent forms, and a whole lot of other pagination of no real relevance.

We've had MANY clinical trials on several COVID vaccines, it's sort of hard to imagine somehow all the people involved were coopted into agreeing to something nefarious.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17244 on: January 28, 2022, 11:04:07 AM »
I've been involved in suits before, and this is indeed a typical tactic by one side or the other.

And it does take time to go through material requested by the other side in disclosure to ensure nothing is being leaked.  I'm sure the clinical reports include a lot of pages with personal information of the test subjects that have to be excised, legally, plus their signed consent forms, and a whole lot of other pagination of no real relevance.

We've had MANY clinical trials on several COVID vaccines, it's sort of hard to imagine somehow all the people involved were coopted into agreeing to something nefarious.
this isn't a typical lawsuit between two private parties. this isn't me suing you or company a suing company b.

this is a FOIA suit vs a government agency. a government agency that is owned/funded by us- the people. they HAVE to release this information. by law. period. the "negotiating tactic" does not apply here. they have no right to play these games or pull this bullshit. by law they have an obligation to release this info in a reasonable timeframe. 

why are they now trying to delay the release even longer? 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17245 on: January 28, 2022, 11:11:10 AM »
The FDA simply calculated how long it would take under normal review procedures and went to the court with that figure.  I view it as predictable and standard, I've seen it routinely.  They aren't going to go in first shot with anything different.

This is standard stuff, nothing unusual or nefarious.  And the court told them to speed it up.  OK fine.  Another alternative would be to narrow the scope of the request.

And yes, this is a negotiating tactic, perfectly legal.  You might not know how things work in Federal courts, but both sides make requests and the judge often will cut the baby in half.  We're talking about how lawyers operate, I've seen it often and in person.  


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17246 on: January 28, 2022, 11:16:39 AM »
Update on countries of interest:

South Africa:


  • The shape of the cases curve continues to show the same trend as previously. Sharp peak followed by sharp decline. They peaked at a 7-day MA of ~23K cases/day, and they're now down to ~3K/day in the span of a little more than a month.
  • Their curve for Delta was a much wider version of this, but critically their Delta wave ended months before Omicron hit. So there were basically no significant lingering Delta infections that hit. Their cases/day were <300 before Omicron appeared.
  • This means that the death numbers were almost entirely Omicron. Prior to Omicron, they were somewhere near the ~25 deaths/day range. Omicron increased that to a peak of around 130/day, a fivefold increase.
  • Of critical importance though is that on roughly similar case numbers (slightly higher peak for Omicron, slightly longer peak for Delta), the Omicron mortality rates appear to be about 25-33% that of Delta.
  • Also important is that the SA death graph appears to be showing that not only have the Omicron deaths plateaued, but that they're dropping. It's too early to really prove that, but they're 10% down from the Omicron deaths peak and nothing in the numbers point to that going back up at this time.


UK:

  • The shape of the case curve looks similar to South Africa. Because it's delayed about 2 weeks after SA, they're now only down 50% from their peak in cases (~180K/day down to ~90K/day). Right now there's a little blip where cases have flattened over 2-3 days, but I would expect the downward trend to continue.
  • Their Delta wave never ended. They were seeing daily case rates ranging from the high 20Ks to the low 40Ks from the start of the Delta wave all the way until Omicron hit. Therefore it's impossible to really see the impact of Omicron on its own. However, unlike SA, their cases spiked WAY above any other point in the pandemic, as mentioned reaching a daily 7-day MA peak of ~180K.
  • The deaths/day, at peak Delta, were about 170/day. Right now it has increased and plateaued about 270/day, or 60% higher than their Delta peak.
  • Critical is that this should be considered additive on top of Delta, as some percentage of those still dying are dying of Delta, not Omicron. Serious epidemiologists might be able to tell you how many of each are occurring, but I don't have access to those kind of numbers.
  • The daily death count appears to have plateaued, and that makes sense because we're now just past 3 weeks out from their cases peak. I expect the decline to start in the next week.

USA:

  • I'm confident that we've passed the Omicron cases peak. Our peak was a 7-day MA of ~800K/day right at Jan 14-15, so two weeks ago. We're now down >25% from that, under 600K.
  • We're not dropping quite as quickly as SA or the UK, but that makes sense. The USA is a much larger population and is much more geographically spread out. That creates a bit of a smoothing function on these rates; it doesn't hit everywhere all at once. I.e. for the four largest states, NY hit their peak around Jan 10, Florida around Jan 12, California around Jan 14, and Texas around Jan 16. So the four largest states had roughly a 1-week spread in their peak dates. Those four states equal the population of SA and the UK combined.
  • Like the UK, the US never got rid of Delta. We definitely had a Delta "peak" of ~165K cases/day in late August, and it had dropped to ~70K by Nov. But in early Dec, after Thanksgiving celebrations and travel, that number had climbed north of 100K before Omicron hit. So when it comes to both infections and deaths, like the UK we can't entirely separate what is a lingering Delta death and what is an Omicron death.
  • That said, the peak deaths for Delta were just north of 2000/day, occurring (predictably) about 3 weeks into September, or 3 weeks after the Delta cases peaked. Delta deaths hit a trough under 1000/day at one point, but post-Thanksgiving jumped back up to the 1300s range before Omicron was factored in.
  • Current death rates (some Omicron/some Delta, I'm sure) have now climbed to >2200/day, or already 10% higher than the Delta peak and 10% higher than the original wave in early 2020. This is still below the 2020-21 holiday/winter peak where we were seeing ~3500/day. Of note is that during that period, our case numbers peaked at ~250K/day, whereas Omicron is over 3x higher. 
  • That said, if we're only two weeks out from our Omicron peak, I expect the deaths numbers to continue rising for the next week or so.
  • I don't think we'll hit the peak of 3500/day, despite the massive case numbers. My guess is that we'll plateau for a little while around 2700-2800/day before dropping. I won't be shocked to see that number flirt with 3000, but 3500 would be a major surprise to me.

« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 11:22:31 AM by betarhoalphadelta »

CatsbyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17247 on: January 28, 2022, 11:16:46 AM »
Nationally reported Covid deaths reach 900k:


 

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