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• The case rate is showing a pattern of peak and then quick reversal. Omicron has receded more quickly than Delta, so despite having a peak in cases about 20% higher than Delta, it is now lower than Delta was in a similar amount of time from the arrival of Delta. 
• Unlike the UK and US, the case rate peaked (7-day MA) only about 20% higher than Delta. This is unusual compared to what we saw elsewhere in the world, where the case rate was several multiples higher than previous peaks.
• The 7-day MA of deaths continues to increase, notching the first day >100 since Omicron arrived.
• The 7-day MA of deaths appears to be WELL below the Delta wave so far. Delta at its peak was ~400 deaths/day, and so far it doesn't look like Omicron is showing the same trend. 

• Case numbers APPEAR to be cresting the peak and potentially moving downward. It's too early to actually say that definitively. A few more days will really give us good detail. 
• The case rate in previous waves never really got beyond ~57K, and in Delta never above 47K (both 7-day MA numbers). Peak Omicron cases so far are ~218K in a single day, and a 7-day MA that crested above 180K. So case rates are >3x higher than ANY previous time in the pandemic. 
• The 7-day MA of deaths is showing a trend moving up. It is now at 191, higher than it ever was during the entire Delta wave. It was very heavy around the 2020-21 holiday season, and is still well below those peaks. 
• The Delta wave never really disappeared, so I think it's clear that what we're seeing now is a combination of lingering Delta deaths plus new Omicron deaths. 

• Case numbers might be near a peak, might not. We seem to be a few days behind the UK in our curves, so we're going to have to wait and see on this one. 7-day MA is still moving up and is currently at 737K/day, and we had a peak single-day case record of 872K a few days ago.
• This is a massive increase, like the UK, compared to previous case rates. Peak 7-day MA during the 2020-21 holiday wave was ~250K cases/day, and during the Delta wave was ~164K cases/day. So we're likewise ~3x higher than the highest case rates of the entire pandemic. 
• Deaths don't yet show a real trend that I can spot. It's been mostly flat for the past month before a slight dip and then a marked jump in the last 4 days, but we're still in the "noise" vs "signal" category in my mind. I suspect we'll follow the same trend seen elsewhere, but I can't state that I see it definitively in the data at this time. 
• Like the UK, because we never saw Delta go away, any death numbers will likely be a combination of lingering Delta infections plus new Omicron infections. So if the numbers go up overall, it's important to remember that the baseline of Delta never hit zero and is probably still continuing to cause problems.

Should we treat Covid like the flu? Europe is starting to think so (cnbc.com)