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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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utee94 · « **Reply #14784 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:04:30 PM »

Quote from: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 01:53:02 PM

Wrong. Our district ditched the masks during the latter part of the spring semester. Seems like it was March or April but the last few months they did not wear masks. The sky did not fall, no more or no less kids got corona, and the kids that I know that got corona didn't really get sick either.

Most importantly no kids or teachers died and I don't even think any teachers had to be hospitalized.

Fair enough.

I'll point out that your experiences in rural Texas aren't particularly analogous to what happened in the urban population centers, and vice versa. And that the confounding variables between the two make comparisons almost meaningless.

This time, the differences in experience from Austin proper, to Austin suburbs, are much smaller, the overall sample will be more homogenous, and will provide a better data set than we've ever had before.

Which is my real point.

Edit: I'll add that I'm not attempting to invalidate your experience in your home. I'm speaking strictly from the viewpoint of the scientific experiment I expect to see over the next few months. I read back through and my response sounded harsh which I did not intend.

utee94 · « **Reply #14785 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:05:56 PM »

Quote from: Gigem on August 11, 2021, 02:00:11 PM

I would like to know how they even know it was delta? I don't think your run of the mill test will tell you that, the only way to know is to do a sequence on it and I wonder how many of those are being done?

Cases that end up in the hospitals are all tested. At this point Delta is by far the dominant strain in Central Texas. I haven't looked at any other geos so won't speak for your area.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #14786 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:07:12 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:03:31 PM

If a mask is say 10% effective against one variant, it should be the same with Delta as well.

we were talking about a school that went maskless

utee94 · « **Reply #14787 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:07:55 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:04:28 PM

There will be additional noise if kids under 12 start getting vaccinated in disparate numbers.

This is going to be one of the problems in comparing rural areas to urban areas, anyway. The rural areas have much lower vaccination rates than their urban counterparts.

But in most cases the large suburbs of cities, have similar vaccination rates to the urban cores, and so comparisons will be more meaningful.

utee94 · « **Reply #14788 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:09:07 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on August 11, 2021, 02:07:12 PM

we were talking about a school that went maskless

There were no schools in any major population center in Texas that went completely maskless the entire year. A few lifted them late, like May, when background cases were extremely low anyway.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14789 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM »

I'm pretty sure in mask optional schools, some portion will wear masks, to some degree. Some others may tell their parents they wear masks but don't. And some will wear them poorly down around their neck much of the time. There won't be a school that disallows masks.

And in mask required schools, you'll still have Johnny not wearing it properly. Karen will tell on him and the teacher will get frustrated.

utee94 · « **Reply #14790 on:** August 11, 2021, 02:22:53 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM

I'm pretty sure in mask optional schools, some portion will wear masks, to some degree. Some others may tell their parents they wear masks but don't. And some will wear them poorly down around their neck much of the time. There won't be a school that disallows masks.

I don't think many will wear masks, certainly not enough to change the statistical impact. I'm in a mask-optional school district adjacent to Austin school district. I went to a 6th grade open-house last night. Less than 10% of all parents/students were wearing masks. When it's students alone in the classroom, I'd say that number falls to just about 0%. The teachers weren't wearing masks, either. I've told my kids that I would prefer they wear masks, but if nobody else is, and they don't feel comfortable, then they don't have to.

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 11, 2021, 02:15:52 PM

And in mask required schools, you'll still have Johnny not wearing it properly. Karen will tell on him and the teacher will get frustrated.

And this is no different than last year, so as far as a control goes, it's identical to the previous experiment.

Riffraft · « **Reply #14791 on:** August 11, 2021, 03:04:47 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 10, 2021, 04:50:26 PM

where in the wide world of sports did people get the idea that there might be long term consequences?

where did this misinformation come from?

Perhaps from people who know about Thalidomide being prescription as a tranquilizer and to combat nausea or maybe the people who know about phen-fen, the list could go on to the number of things that have been released as safe and found out later to have consequences.

I have a daughter who is currently pregnant. There is no way in the world I would recommend for her to get the vaccine at this time.

BTW I am not an anti-vaxxer I have been vaccinated, but I would never tell anyone that they have to get the vaccine for any reason. Also I understand that what I cited above are not vaccines, but the vaccines that are being used for COVID are not your typical vaccines in how they cause the antibodies to develop.

Riffraft · « **Reply #14792 on:** August 11, 2021, 03:07:41 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 10, 2021, 06:11:06 PM

I get that...

But I think that my discussion about the psychological aspect is an interesting one.

A pregnant lady can choose to get the vaccine or not get the vaccine. But in the world in which we live, that pregnant lady most likely CANNOT choose whether or not she's going to get COVID while pregnant.

But that pregnant lady most likely doesn't think about the potential long-term effects of COVID infection on her unborn child because she's not choosing to get COVID.

The proper way to make the decision would be to look at the potential negative effects of the vaccine * 100% (because you're choosing the vaccine and you know whether or not you'll get it) balanced against the potential negative effects of COVID * the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally.

But nobody really knows the likelihood of contracting COVID naturally, as it's dependent on a whole bunch of factors, personal behavior notwithstanding. So most people in the calculation never look at the right side of the ledger because "I'm sure I won't get COVID in the next 9 months!"

I think the issue is that people underestimate the likelihood of getting COVID, because they all think they're being MUCH more careful than they actually are. Just like 90% of people think they're above-average drivers.

When you balance the decision using only the left side of the ledger, caution is always the best policy, because you're not accounting for the danger on the right side.

Except that for the most part the danger (particularly the mortal danger) on the other part has been IMHO greatly exaggerated by others when you look at the statistics, whereas we don't know the danger on the other part.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14793 on:** August 11, 2021, 03:28:52 PM »

Quote from: Riffraft on August 11, 2021, 03:07:41 PM

Except that for the most part the danger (particularly the mortal danger) on the other part has been IMHO greatly exaggerated by others when you look at the statistics, whereas we don't know the danger on the other part.

Well, I think we were talking about long term effects, not short term mortality risk.

I think we already have evidence that mortality due to either COVID or the vaccine are not typical for otherwise healthy pregnant women, nor have I heard of any short-term effects of either that negatively harm the baby.

My point was that we have NO idea what the long term effects are of COVID on a child who was exposed to it in the womb. Just as we have NO idea what the long term effects are of the vaccine on a child whose mother gets it during pregnancy.

BTW I'm not saying that the pregnant lady in my example didn't choose correctly in choosing not to get the vaccine. I didn't have to advise anyone on making that choice, and I have not looked at any research whatsoever. It's entirely possible that avoiding the vaccine if you're pregnant is the rational decision.

What I'm saying is that for most people--pregnant or not--looking at the choice of getting or not getting the vaccine, they're evaluating the vaccine's potential long term effects but they're ignoring the fact that we have no idea what the long term effects are of COVID. Yet they're willing to "take a chance" on getting COVID and potentially dealing with the long-term effects because "getting COVID" doesn't require agency, while affirmatively getting the vaccine does.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14794 on:** August 11, 2021, 03:29:37 PM »

It's my contention that most people who are refusing the vaccine for non-ideological and non-political reasons are creating justifications to rationalize that fear.

"It's too new." - So is COVID.
"We don't know the long term effects." - We don't know the long term effects of natural COVID infection either.
"It's not even FDA-approved." - Neither is COVID.
"I don't like injecting unnatural chemicals into my body." - COVID is natural. Botulism is natural. Salmonella is natural. They can all kill you.
"I'm young and COVID won't hurt me." - COVID has killed more young people than the vaccine. Neither is risky if you're young, but relative risk is pretty different.

The issue when talking to people is that very often if you address the stated reason, it still doesn't address the underlying fear of agency of getting the shot. They'd rather rely on hope that they won't get COVID or that it won't affect them than take responsibility for CHOOSING to get the shot in the low likelihood that the shot is somehow bad.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #14795 on:** August 11, 2021, 03:49:32 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on August 11, 2021, 01:19:17 PM

This type of reasoning is a fallacy.

Literally the world is full of things that we could do differently that would save 'one effing life' and we don't do those things.

In fact, there are a lot of things that we could do differently that would save far more lives.

We could make tobacco products illegal.
We could ban sales of alcohol.
We could institute 25 mph speed limits on all public roads.
We could ban drive-through restaurants (or some other ban targeted at fast food products).

The biggest killers in the US are heart disease, cancer, accidents, and chronic respiratory diseases.

Banning tobacco would take a big step out of heart disease, cancer, and respiratory diseases, and lower death rates by those causes. Banning fast food or otherwise forcing Americans into a healthier diet would help considerably with heart disease and diabetes and obesity, and lower death rates by those causes. Motor vehicle fatalities are around 35K annually--I'll bet you could drop that 50% by mandating a 25 mph speed limit coast to coast.

We don't do these things because there's a balancing test between freedom, cost, efficiency, and safety.

We wore masks to protect the vulnerable. Now the vulnerable have access to vaccines which are FAR more effective than masks to protect them. So why do we still need the masks?

Amen.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14796 on:** August 11, 2021, 03:58:08 PM »

The Delta Variant Isn’t As Contagious As Chickenpox. But It’s Still Highly Contagious (wbhm.org)

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #14797 on:** August 11, 2021, 04:35:07 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 11, 2021, 06:35:58 AM

There should be no mandates at all. If a parent wants their child to wear one, then do it. If not, then don't.

Which is what Florida is saying. The issue is school districts making mandates. They should not, and Florida is trying to stop that.

This might be the most backwards-assed thing I've ever read.
You're lost.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

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utee94

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longhorn320

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utee94

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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Riffraft

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Riffraft

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betarhoalphadelta

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betarhoalphadelta

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Mdot21

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Cincydawg

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OrangeAfroMan

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