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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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utee94 · « **Reply #14182 on:** July 08, 2021, 12:39:16 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:01:02 PM

I think new case numbers are still relevant as an early indicator, they just aren't completely definitive (never have been).

Since vaccinated people still test positive even when they're not sick and highly unlikely to spread it, the new case numbers are even less relevant than ever.

utee94 · « **Reply #14183 on:** July 08, 2021, 12:40:55 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:09:45 PM

I agree hospitalizations is probably the most important metric, but it's a trailing indicator. New cases is a leading indicator when we compare with data over time. If you see an uptick in new cases, you almost certainly can expect hospitalizations to follow in 2-3 weeks.

Not necessarily. If you see an uptick in cases in vaccinated individuals, you almost certainly can expect hospitalizations NOT to follow.

Which is the exact point I'm making.

utee94 · « **Reply #14184 on:** July 08, 2021, 12:42:02 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 12:31:47 PM

I am pretty sure where we see a significant increase in positive tests, we'll see hospitalizations go up in 2-3 weeks, without exception.

I'm not. Because vaccinated individuals are testing positive.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14185 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:02:49 PM »

Will getting a COVID-19 vaccine cause me to test positive for COVID-19 on a viral test?

illustration of positive COVID-19 test results title=Vaccine_pos_test

No. None of the authorized and recommended COVID-19 vaccines cause you to test positive on viral tests, which are used to see if you have a current infection. Neither can any of the COVID-19 vaccines currently in clinical trials in the United States. Vaccinations protect most people from getting sick. However, a small percentage of fully vaccinated people will still get COVID-19. There is some evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe in people who get vaccinated but still get sick.

If your body develops an immune response to vaccination, which is the goal, you may test positive on some antibody tests. Antibody tests indicate you had a previous infection and that you may have some level of protection against the virus. Experts are currently looking at how COVID-19 vaccination may affect antibody testing results.

Myths and Facts about COVID-19 Vaccines | CDC

utee94 · « **Reply #14186 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:08:13 PM »

I hope you're not posting that in response to my statements? Because that's not what I'm saying. I mean, literally everyone on this thread already knows what you posted.

What I'm saying is that vaccinated individuals can still be exposed to the virus, they can develop an immune response, and they can test positive. It's happening here. It's happening all over the world. It's happening in Israel which has one of the most widespread vaccination programs in the world.

But the vast majority of those people, even if they test positive, aren't sick, aren't ending up in hospitals, and aren't spreading it.

Which is why, once again, I'm stating that absolute case counts are an even poorer metric now, than they were 6-12 months ago.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14187 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:23:10 PM »

Sorry, I thought you meant that. I think an upswing in positives is bad news, a leading indicator. It will happen with very few vaccinated individuals, nearly all will be unvaccinated. And yes, the upswing in deaths and hospitalizations may be slightly less than before, but it will still be expected, in my view.

How many vaccinated individuals will go to get tested if they are not symptomatic? Some will perforce for other reasons.

I will still be looking at the positives rates and new case counts as a "sign".

utee94 · « **Reply #14188 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:32:24 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 01:23:10 PM

Sorry, I thought you meant that. I think an upswing in positives is bad news, a leading indicator. It will happen with very few vaccinated individuals, nearly all will be unvaccinated. And yes, the upswing in deaths and hospitalizations may be slightly less than before, but it will still be expected, in my view.

How many vaccinated individuals will go to get tested if they are not symptomatic? Some will perforce for other reasons.

I will still be looking at the positives rates and new case counts as a "sign".

I think a lot will, perforce. We're reaching the end of summer vacation. There are going to be some school districts that require testing. Some school, college, and professional sports teams will require testing. As employees return to work, switching from home-office to actual jobsites, many employers are requiring testing.

A lot of that population will be vaccinated, and some of them are going to test positive. But any pop resulting from that increase in absolute positive test cases, won't be a leading indicator of trouble.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14189 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:51:35 PM »

Five vaccinated countries with high Covid rates rely on China vaccines (cnbc.com)

The wife's closest friend lives in Brazil and got the Sinovac. The wife asked me if I would take that vaccine personally if that's all we had available.

I didn't give her an answer.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #14190 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:53:52 PM »

I would take it. Probably developed by the same guy who made Covid.

FearlessF · « **Reply #14191 on:** July 08, 2021, 01:55:59 PM »

if it was the only available option? maybe, would depend on how many were sick and dying in my neighborhood

longhorn320 · « **Reply #14192 on:** July 08, 2021, 02:02:04 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 01:53:52 PM

I would take it. Probably developed by the same guy who made Covid.

Fortunately we dont have to worry about that

The last thing I want is to depend on China to provide a fix for something they caused

I dont trust em

and before certain posters on here jump on me Im not meaning the Asian community

of whom I have many friends and some relatives

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14193 on:** July 08, 2021, 02:28:22 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 01:08:13 PM

I hope you're not posting that in response to my statements? Because that's not what I'm saying. I mean, literally everyone on this thread already knows what you posted.

What I'm saying is that vaccinated individuals can still be exposed to the virus, they can develop an immune response, and they can test positive. It's happening here. It's happening all over the world. It's happening in Israel which has one of the most widespread vaccination programs in the world.

But the vast majority of those people, even if they test positive, aren't sick, aren't ending up in hospitals, and aren't spreading it.

Which is why, once again, I'm stating that absolute case counts are an even poorer metric now, than they were 6-12 months ago.

You're both right.

I absolutely think that cases are still a leading indicator. In most states we're looking at somewhere in the ~50% range of vaccination and then maybe another 20% natural immunity, but 30% of the population is still a big number. So we're going to see cases rates rise faster in that group than in the vaccinated group... Which would lead to hospitalization/death rates rising as well. And then while it's more rare, there ARE hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals.

But case rates are becoming more and more poor as a proxy for hospitalizations/deaths as time goes on due to vaccination, unlike 6+ months ago when we didn't have vaccines readily available.

Anecdotally, my wife's doctor is saying that of the cases that she's seeing, even with the delta variant, it's almost universally unvaccinated people BTW.

utee94 · « **Reply #14194 on:** July 08, 2021, 02:52:08 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 02:28:22 PM

You're both right.

I absolutely think that cases are still a leading indicator. In most states we're looking at somewhere in the ~50% range of vaccination and then maybe another 20% natural immunity, but 30% of the population is still a big number. So we're going to see cases rates rise faster in that group than in the vaccinated group... Which would lead to hospitalization/death rates rising as well. And then while it's more rare, there ARE hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals.

But case rates are becoming more and more poor as a proxy for hospitalizations/deaths as time goes on due to vaccination, unlike 6+ months ago when we didn't have vaccines readily available.

Anecdotally, my wife's doctor is saying that of the cases that she's seeing, even with the delta variant, it's almost universally unvaccinated people BTW.

I can 100% believe that the vast majority of cases a doc is seeing, are unvaccinated. Because for the most part only sick people go to the doc, and vaccinated people aren't getting sick, for the most part.

But the doc ISN'T seeing the folks that test positive for whatever reason, but aren't sick, either because they're already vaccinated or they just have minimal symptoms.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14195 on:** July 08, 2021, 02:55:32 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 08, 2021, 02:52:08 PM

I can 100% believe that the vast majority of cases a doc is seeing, are unvaccinated. Because for the most part only sick people go to the doc, and vaccinated people aren't getting sick, for the most part.

But the doc ISN'T seeing the folks that test positive for whatever reason, but aren't sick, either because they're already vaccinated or they just have minimal symptoms.

Yes, agreed.

Of her two doctors, she's the one that has a rotation in a hospital and not just the private practice. So she's much more exposed to people coming with acute symptoms.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

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utee94

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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longhorn320

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betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

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