header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 706 707 [708] 709 710 ... 1378   Go Down
Author

Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

 (Read 771187 times)

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7868
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9898 on: October 28, 2020, 01:11:31 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM
The question is

Is the virus becoming weaker or is it the younger folks thats making up the increase or is it the improved treatment drugs and methods that is the reason deaths are not increasing at the same rate as new cases are

or will there be a huge catchup in deaths in the next few weeks
Who knows?

The one thing I've come to believe is that some of the micro swings we see are meaningful, others are just noise. For those watching, just a lot of wait, see and hope. 
Logged

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9342
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9899 on: October 28, 2020, 01:17:29 PM »
saying everyone will get the virus is ignoring the fact that we have a good chance of a vaccine in the next 3 or 4 months

if the vaccine works then not everybody will get the virus

if the vaccine does not work then yes everyone could catch it
Logged
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9900 on: October 28, 2020, 01:18:04 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:40:27 AM
This goes back to safe practice. Protect the elderly, the sick and the people of high risk. Everyone else can go about their business, while practicing safe habits. Keep the hospitalizations down, increase testing even more, and continue to develop treatment strategies. It can work if we do it right.

Keeping everyone at home is not the answer.
Only problem with that is that you can't necessarily "protect" the elderly. They can't be completely isolated. They need groceries or food delivery. They need medication and/or medical treatments. The ones in nursing homes are being cared for by people who are out in the environment, and one antigen test that is either too early to be detected or a false negative, and you have an outbreak in a nursing home. 

I agree that "locking everyone at home" is not the answer. But IMHO neither is "everyone other than the old and vulnerable go back to normal and reach herd immunity quickly" the answer. 

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM
The question is

Is the virus becoming weaker 
Possibly, but we have no evidence of it at this time.


Quote
or is it the younger folks thats making up the increase
Almost certainly yes. So that will help keep the apparent mortality rate down. 


Quote
or is it the improved treatment drugs and methods that is the reason deaths are not increasing at the same rate as new cases are
Almost certainly yes, and having an effect that is keeping the apparent mortality rate down.


Quote
or will there be a huge catchup in deaths in the next few weeks
We're already seeing the catchup starting. 7-day MA of daily deaths had been stable around 700-725/day while the cases were stable in the low 40K range. In the last 10 days it has now jumped to 842/day and there's nothing logically that would give us reason to believe the increase will stop.

If you had to ask my guess, I think the apparent mortality rate will be similar to the Jul/Aug spike. I think the demographics of that spike will prove to be mostly similar to this, but I think we'll have more older and more vulnerable people represented due to COVID fatigue. I think treatments are worlds better than the Mar/Apr spike, but probably only marginally better than the Jul/Aug spike. I wouldn't be shocked at all if those two things mostly balance out and we end up with similar apparent mortality numbers. 
Logged

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9342
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9901 on: October 28, 2020, 01:25:03 PM »
looking back at the data since June 1 it looks like the death rate of positives is aprox 1.86%

it will be interesting to see if that continues with this latest spike

that rate assumes an 18 day lag time
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 01:30:38 PM by longhorn320 »
Logged
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9902 on: October 28, 2020, 01:26:06 PM »
Why did the Jul/Aug spike attenuate in Sept//Oct?

Logged

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17718
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9903 on: October 28, 2020, 01:38:43 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 01:05:02 PM
As stated [by me] days ago, and as stated in the CNN story, there are 4 potential explanations for the declining death rate:

  • Better treatments.
  • More testing (catching more asymptomatics).
  • Demographic change in the cases (more young/healthy people).
  • The virus is mutating to something less lethal.

  • #1 reduces the lethality of the virus not due to innate factors of the virus.
  • #2-3 does not indicate a reduction in lethality of the virus.
  • #4 has no evidence to date.

So while I'd love to consider it "fantastic news", (#1) better treatments is the only news that I'd call good. The other 3 potential reasons for a declining apparent death rate are either neutral (#2-3) or have no evidence that it is occurring (#4).


I think there's plenty of evidence that #1 is true, and is having an effect.  Which is fantastic news.

I find comfort knowing that when everyone in my family eventually catches this, because it is as inevitable as Thanos, that the docs are going to be better equipped to treat me and mine, based on their long history of experience and improvements over time.

Agree on your #2 and #3, those aren't really relevant.

And since viruses quite commonly evolve and mutate to become less deadly, in fact that's a common and consistent hallmark of viruses, there's no reason to think #4 can't or won't happen, even if we don't yet have peer-reviewed evidence that it is currently happening.

Two docs I know that have been treating this since March, one in Chicago and one in Austin, are saying that the "bad" cases that are coming through their doors now, aren't anywhere near as bad as the "bad" cases from March.  Anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but they have more of it than anyone on this message board.  So there you have it.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 01:44:06 PM by utee94 »
Logged

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25280
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9904 on: October 28, 2020, 01:44:15 PM »
My doctor and the dock doctor and the ER doctor I saw last Friday all say the same, UTee.

Germany is locking down November 4.
Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9905 on: October 28, 2020, 01:46:37 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 01:38:43 PM
And since viruses quite commonly evolve and mutate to become less deadly, in fact that's a common and consistent hallmark of viruses, there's not reason to think #4 can't or won't happen, even if we don't yet have peer-reviewed evidence that it is currently happening.

Two docs I know that have been treating this since March, one in Chicago and one in Austin, are saying that the "bad" cases that are coming through their doors now, aren't anywhere near as bad as the "bad" cases from March.  Anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but they have more of it than anyone on this message board.  So there you have it.
There is also no reason to think that it can't or won't mutate to become even worse than it is now. After all, I don't know if there's any relative difference between the lethality of the "L" strain that originated in Wuhan or the "G, GH, GR" strains that are most common now, but in one metric [transmissibility] those later strains are worse. 

That said, I've heard similar from doctors, that what they're seeing today isn't quite as bad. Perhaps that's due to earlier detection and earlier intervention, perhaps it's due to a virus mutation. I'll leave that to the epidemiologists to figure out. 
Logged

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9342
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9906 on: October 28, 2020, 01:49:54 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 01:46:37 PM
There is also no reason to think that it can't or won't mutate to become even worse than it is now. After all, I don't know if there's any relative difference between the lethality of the "L" strain that originated in Wuhan or the "G, GH, GR" strains that are most common now, but in one metric [transmissibility] those later strains are worse.

That said, I've heard similar from doctors, that what they're seeing today isn't quite as bad. Perhaps that's due to earlier detection and earlier intervention, perhaps it's due to a virus mutation. I'll leave that to the epidemiologists to figure out.
doesnt history tell us the if a virus does mutate it is generally weaker

anyway thats my impression
Logged
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Hawkinole

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2224
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9907 on: October 28, 2020, 01:52:24 PM »
Wisconsin v. Nebraska canceled. 12 positives at UW.
Logged

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9342
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9908 on: October 28, 2020, 01:55:12 PM »
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 28, 2020, 01:52:24 PM
Wisconsin v. Nebraska canceled. 12 positives at UW.
we will probably see more of this

can they make the game up
Logged
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9909 on: October 28, 2020, 01:55:53 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 01:44:15 PM
My doctor and the dock doctor and the ER doctor I saw last Friday all say the same, UTee.

Germany is locking down November 4.
Partial lockdown, not total.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/28/coronavirus-live-news-intensive-care-units-in-france-could-reach-extreme-saturation-in-two-weeks

Logged

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25280
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9910 on: October 28, 2020, 01:56:29 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
we will probably see more of this

can they make the game up
This is being discussed in the Week 2 B1G thread.
Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9911 on: October 28, 2020, 02:34:20 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on October 28, 2020, 01:49:54 PM
doesnt history tell us the if a virus does mutate it is generally weaker

anyway thats my impression
It can go either way. For example, the Spanish Flu's second wave was a mutated strain that was more deadly:

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 706 707 [708] 709 710 ... 1378   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
Custom Mahogany Shadow Box

Smokeys Record Year Hoodie