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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9884 on: October 28, 2020, 10:40:27 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
To the extent the drop in mortality is due to age of infected, IF everyone got it, this trend would reverse, because that would mean the elderly were getting it in numbers and dying as before.

This has still some potential for being a massive killer, if indeed everyone on the planet gets it, short of a vaccine conferring resistance.

The vaccine progress has been solid, apparently, and three major efforts are in progress.
This goes back to safe practice. Protect the elderly, the sick and the people of high risk. Everyone else can go about their business, while practicing safe habits. Keep the hospitalizations down, increase testing even more, and continue to develop treatment strategies. It can work if we do it right.

Keeping everyone at home is not the answer.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9885 on: October 28, 2020, 10:42:44 AM »
I was merely noting that, if indeed "everyone gets it", the death toll would be staggering.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9886 on: October 28, 2020, 10:45:34 AM »
Maybe not. Treatments are better at this than they were all along, and they are still getting better.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9887 on: October 28, 2020, 10:45:43 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:23:29 AM
Oktoberfest is actually mostly in September.  Why are people drinking nasty old beer?

Just kidding, marzen is good.
The old Bavarian Proverb there are no bad beers some are just better than other,mostly true
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9888 on: October 28, 2020, 10:46:44 AM »
The question is 

Is the virus becoming weaker or is it the younger folks thats making up the increase or is it the improved treatment drugs and methods that is the reason deaths are not increasing at the same rate as new cases are

or will there be a huge catchup in deaths in the next few weeks
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9889 on: October 28, 2020, 10:47:28 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:45:34 AM
Maybe not. Treatments are better at this than they were all along, and they are still getting better.

I'm talking about just about any mortality percentage applied over 7 BILLION plus.

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9890 on: October 28, 2020, 10:52:49 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:47:28 AM
I'm talking about just about any mortality percentage applied over 7 BILLION plus.


No doubt, this virus is a shitty killer of people.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9891 on: October 28, 2020, 10:54:02 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/scott-gottlieb-covid-trajectory-in-us-looks-a-lot-like-europe-.html

This guy predicts we're three weeks behind Europe, and it's going to get really really bad here, as it is there.

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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9892 on: October 28, 2020, 10:57:22 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 10:40:27 AM
This goes back to safe practice. Protect the elderly, the sick and the people of high risk. Everyone else can go about their business, while practicing safe habits. Keep the hospitalizations down, increase testing even more, and continue to develop treatment strategies. It can work if we do it right.

Keeping everyone at home is not the answer.
Testify 847 Testify
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9893 on: October 28, 2020, 11:06:53 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/scott-gottlieb-covid-trajectory-in-us-looks-a-lot-like-europe-.html

This guy predicts we're three weeks behind Europe, and it's going to get really really bad here, as it is there.


wouldn't surprise me at all.

Hopefully the death rate continues to remain lower than the first round.  We'll have to do a much better job at keeping it out of the retirement homes and away from the elderly in general.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9894 on: October 28, 2020, 11:39:28 AM »
hTe stock market is concerned for sure.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9895 on: October 28, 2020, 11:49:06 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/scott-gottlieb-covid-trajectory-in-us-looks-a-lot-like-europe-.html

This guy predicts we're three weeks behind Europe, and it's going to get really really bad here, as it is there.


I'm hoping and praying he's WRONG
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9896 on: October 28, 2020, 11:58:18 AM »
There is a reasonable chance he's right, but then I thought that back in August when things were going up so fast.

And then it peaked and declined, for reasons I cannot completely explain.  So, maybe this also peaks.

Sweden is bad again.  Now their weather has shifted, so that COULD be one factor.  They are worse on new cases than they were back when, approaching 2,000 per day.  Deaths remain single digit per day.  They had been over 100 per day in April with a few hundred reported cases.

Some of that reflects more testing.





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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9897 on: October 28, 2020, 01:05:02 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 10:27:38 AM
Yup, understanding that pretty much everyone on the planet is going to get this virus, the fact that the death rate is declining, is fantastic news.
As stated [by me] days ago, and as stated in the CNN story, there are 4 potential explanations for the declining death rate:

  • Better treatments.
  • More testing (catching more asymptomatics).
  • Demographic change in the cases (more young/healthy people).
  • The virus is mutating to something less lethal.

  • #1 reduces the lethality of the virus not due to innate factors of the virus.
  • #2-3 does not indicate a reduction in lethality of the virus.
  • #4 has no evidence to date. 

So while I'd love to consider it "fantastic news", (#1) better treatments is the only news that I'd call good. The other 3 potential reasons for a declining apparent death rate are either neutral (#2-3) or have no evidence that it is occurring (#4). 

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