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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8470 on: September 04, 2020, 07:22:44 PM »
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.
Or it could just be lazy reporting.
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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8471 on: September 04, 2020, 08:59:24 PM »
Or it could just be lazy reporting.
It is a paraphrase of a quote that appears directly under it. It is literally fine reporting. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8472 on: September 05, 2020, 01:52:51 AM »
The quote that came right after the quoted "presumptive" clause"

"Of course, failing to acknowledge a problem does not make that problem go away," Ehresmann said, "it just makes it worse .... allowing the virus to spread undetected in the community, which prolongs the outbreak and rolls the dice with lives of people around them."

Ehresmann would be the state Director of Infectious Disease. The clause that's quoted intros that quote, which when read in that order makes sense. Now, you might feel that this epidemiologist has an agenda. But it's not a dangerous part of our media, unless our media is being dangerous by quoting this particular scientist of record and lightly summarizing as an introduction.

I don't want to be presumptive and ask if you read through the article for the placement of the quote, but the quoted thing is near about the height of innocuous alongside the thing the person said. It probably is redundant, but certianly not a presumption built into reporting to further an agenda.

Cool.  If we've learned nothing else in the past 6 months (and I certainly hope we have) it's that epidemiologists can have agendas, too.

This is their only time to shine in the sun.

No matter WHO is making it, the implication that people who aren't getting tested are necessarily spreading it, is false.  And this is the implication that is coming through.

So you can defend bad journalism, or bad epidemiologists.  That's your choice, I guess.  Although you COULD choose to defend neither.

If there is evidence that the "test dodgers" are spreading it intentionally-- and let's be clear, that is exactly the implication-- then let's out with it.  Provide the evidence.

Otherwise?

STFU

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8473 on: September 05, 2020, 10:07:57 AM »
Cool.  If we've learned nothing else in the past 6 months (and I certainly hope we have) it's that epidemiologists can have agendas, too.

This is their only time to shine in the sun.

No matter WHO is making it, the implication that people who aren't getting tested are necessarily spreading it, is false.  And this is the implication that is coming through.

So you can defend bad journalism, or bad epidemiologists.  That's your choice, I guess.  Although you COULD choose to defend neither.

If there is evidence that the "test dodgers" are spreading it intentionally-- and let's be clear, that is exactly the implication-- then let's out with it.  Provide the evidence.

Otherwise?

STFU

OK. The story mentions nothing about intentionality. Like nothing at all. In fact, the implication is that it's being done unintentionally and perhaps carelessly. But when we look at things that we disagree with, we very often read intentionality into it (at times I do for sure).

The thing is, there's not much evidence provided that it's bad journalism, since most journalism is propagating information people want to know, often by speaking to experts. I can't speak to the epidemiology. I'd guess they have some better sense of how these things spread, but maybe they're overplaying it. 

I guess I'm defending normalcy against a level of incredulousness that renders most everything "bad." If you look at a story that modestly irks you and apply several layers of feelings to a particular phrase (the reading that it MUST be saying these people are necessarily spreading it, the argument that high ranking doctors are doing this all for the attention), you'll fall into a mud pit that everything is bad. And that's a big part of our world now, honing in on details and complaining over them. And in the end, this is to a degree mundane. If it didn't mention people spreading it unknowingly, would it suddenly fix the story? Or would that incredulousness shift elsewhere. 

Now, there's a fairly good macro argument why this is bad. It's obviously narrative-ising this particular outbreak in a way that hits the feels. The state health whatever it is served it up and the reporter propagated it. There's a solid argument there's a certain cheapness, sort of the opposite of the meat packing thing, where the meatpacking outbreak made it sound like someone else's problem, this tries too much to make it sound like something that could happen to you. 

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8474 on: September 05, 2020, 03:08:31 PM »
Our statewide cases and deaths numbers continue to climb, and we haven't even felt whatever effect we will feel from schools reopening.  Or Labor Day.

I suspect that by late September-early October, we'll be going back to distance-learning.  After some expendable older teachers with co-morbidities come down with COVID and die.  Hey, that'll be a good thing for the Teacher Retirement Fund!

Is the recent CDC (?) estimate of deaths by the end of the year posted here?  IIRC, the high-end number was over 600,000, the "most-likely" number was right at 400,000, and the low-end number was well under 300,000.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 03:34:42 PM by CWSooner »
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8475 on: September 05, 2020, 03:27:21 PM »
Our statewide cases and deaths numbers continue to climb, and we haven't even felt whatever effect we will feel from schools reopening.

I suspect that by late September-early October, we'll be going back to distance-learning.  After some expendable older teachers with co-morbidities come down with COVID and die.  Hey, that'll be a good thing for the Teacher Retirement Fund!

Is the recent CDC (?) estimate of deaths by the end of the year posted here?  IIRC, the high-end number was over 600,000, the "most-likely" number was right at 400,000, and the low-end number was well under 300,000.
right now if nothing changes we are trending toward between 280,000 and 310,000

I dont think we will see anywhere near 400,000

just my opinion CW 
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8476 on: September 05, 2020, 03:36:41 PM »
Just reporting what I read, 320.

400,000, which was based on current measures staying in place, seemed high to me too.  "Seemed" being the operative word.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8477 on: September 05, 2020, 03:53:07 PM »
Just reporting what I read, 320.

400,000, which was based on current measures staying in place, seemed high to me too.  "Seemed" being the operative word.
simple math there are 116 days left in year

we are currently averaging 1,200 deaths a day and trending down

current deaths = 193,000

116 x 1200 = 139,200

139,200 + 193,000 = 332,000

again we are trending down so Im guessing the real number is below 300,000 and no where near 400,000

just my opinion
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8478 on: September 05, 2020, 03:55:27 PM »

Is the recent CDC (?) estimate of deaths by the end of the year posted here?  IIRC, the high-end number was over 600,000, the "most-likely" number was right at 400,000, and the low-end number was well under 300,000.
That was the IHME model.

Agree that 400K seems high. At 1K/day it only gets us in the 300K range. Not sure why they think it will increase. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8479 on: September 05, 2020, 03:58:28 PM »


again we are trending down so Im guessing the real number is below 300,000 and no where near 400,000

just my opinion
Yeah, but models made by smart people realize that a recent trend of a decrease will very likely not last, as the history of our cases have shown....
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8480 on: September 05, 2020, 04:03:19 PM »
Yeah, but models made by smart people realize that a recent trend of a decrease will very likely not last, as the history of our cases have shown....
well we should soon see with school openings 
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8481 on: September 05, 2020, 04:15:47 PM »
Yep.  Labor Day get-togethers and school re-openings.  If we don't see a spike from that, we're probably not going to see one at all.
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MaximumSam

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8483 on: September 06, 2020, 09:20:50 AM »
A thing about deaths is we appear to be getting better at treating extreme cases.  The percentage of deaths of those who contract it are dropping, in the US, and I think everywhere.  

A Labor Day/school BUMP might not be the only bump as winter hits and folks stay inside more often  We could have a bad winter confluence of COVID and flu.

We all hope not, but folks have noted that possibility.  We're mostly out and about now.  I hope if number start to go back up folks will take heed and modify behaviors.

 

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