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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8456 on: September 04, 2020, 11:59:15 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on September 04, 2020, 11:51:05 AM
Oh, we're going to have a vaccine released on Nov 1.

Conveniently early enough that someone can take the credit and get the political bump from it, but late enough that when we learn it's neither effective nor safe we won't know it until after Nov 3.
No doubt!

That's why I always use the qualifier in front. :)

Like I said, I'll eventually get a vaccine shot if one ever comes about-- but I'm gonna go ahead and wait a couple months and let the "kinks" work themselves out. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8457 on: September 04, 2020, 12:02:33 PM »
I doubt we'll pick up any kinks in two months.  And the vaccine released early won't be for us anyway.
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GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8458 on: September 04, 2020, 12:09:51 PM »
Quote
In a departure for the normally tight-lipped health officials, at Thursday's news conference state Director of Infectious Disease Kris Ehresmann noted how one indoor wedding in southwest Minnesota had more guests than allowed (275), an event with no masks that has now produced 56 cases in nine counties.
From yesterday's Rochester Post-Bulletin


While this doesn't excuse the conduct of those attending the wedding, IMHO it shows that there may be something to CDawg's idea of latent immunity. Considering the normal conditions of a wedding reception, you would think that everyone there would be pulling positive tests.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8459 on: September 04, 2020, 12:31:07 PM »
Quote from: GopherRock on September 04, 2020, 12:09:51 PM
From yesterday's Rochester Post-Bulletin


While this doesn't excuse the conduct of those attending the wedding, IMHO it shows that there may be something to CDawg's idea of latent immunity. Considering the normal conditions of a wedding reception, you would think that everyone there would be pulling positive tests.
I wouldn't necessarily say that. 

The fact that they all attended the same wedding doesn't tell you about how many people had personal contact with the 1 or several people who were the vector of infection. This thing is very transmissible, but unless it's a situation where someone is probably on the dance floor at the same time as the contagious person their risk is probably still not huge. 

Although the story does say this as well:


Quote
Ehresmann said health officials believed the number was an undercount, as health officals had come to believe that some guests were not being tested in order to keep the case numbers low, thereby allowing further spread.


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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8460 on: September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM »
Quote
...thereby allowing further spread.

This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8461 on: September 04, 2020, 02:08:50 PM »
The latent immunity notion isn't mine.  I'm sure we all hope it's right in some way.  I don't know that it is.  Or, it's possible some of us have some "resistance" due to exposure of a similar CV.  Imperfect resistance, perhaps at times sufficient to knock it down quickly so we have no symptoms.

I talked to a guy at the pool yesterday who has not  been sick, but most of his office was, and he's been tested twice to have "raging antibodies", he said.

If you think Sweden's experience is entirely due to really good distancing and mask wearing there, OK, I think, maybe.  I still say there is something we're all missing, the parts don't fit in my mind.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8462 on: September 04, 2020, 02:31:48 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on September 04, 2020, 02:08:50 PM


If you think Sweden's experience is entirely due to really good distancing and mask wearing there, OK, I think, maybe.  I still say there is something we're all missing, the parts don't fit in my mind.
It's anecdotal of course, but what do your Swedish friends say about the reality of their countrymen's voluntary efforts at distancing, mask-wearing, etc.  Do THEY believe they're doing a good job of it?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8463 on: September 04, 2020, 02:34:21 PM »
Yes, they do, it's really just one lady who lives summers on an island.  But she said this back when it was raging in Sweden.

How can they have been being disciplined in April and had a huge outbreak and have done nothing since and have gone quiet, almost?

Being outdoors more?  Being more scared?  No school?

Maybe.  The shift was dramatic.  France shut down, and reduced COVID to baseline almost, and now are headed back to raging, worse than April.

And they just started school.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8464 on: September 04, 2020, 03:00:35 PM »
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/28/906263926/how-many-coronavirus-cases-are-happening-in-schools-this-tracker-keeps-count?fbclid=IwAR365EFK_l9LSrfuMG3r0ZOP26sbFETyAAYzKb9Ektezf5mErnYAWFtd_D0

y Aug. 23, when she handed off the project to NEA, she and volunteers working with her had logged over nearly 4,300 cases at more than 1,000 schools, which can be seen on the map above, created by one of the project volunteers.

According to the data she has collected, as of Aug. 23, Florida schools have seen the most cases, followed by Texas and Georgia. (The NEA is in the process of moving Morris' data to its tracker.)

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8465 on: September 04, 2020, 03:09:54 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.

utee youre sounding more and more like me every day

better watch out or before too long youre gonna be wearing MAGA hats
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8466 on: September 04, 2020, 03:16:45 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.

What pisses me off is that 56 cases have been "tied to" that wedding. Note that it does NOT say that 56 wedding guests tested positive.

I saw a story a couple months ago that was similar, where a bunch of cases were "tied to" a family get together. I think it was like 18 cases tied to a family party where 28 people attended. That story was at least clear enough that it said, IIRC, that one infected person [the host] transmitted to 7 family members AT the party, and those 7 transmitted to an additional 10 so they were related cases but those additional 10 did not attend the party. 

With this wedding, which is it? Was it 56 wedding guests infected? Or was it say 35 wedding guests infected but they've transmitted it to an additional 21 people? 

Bad journalism IMHO to not be clear on that point. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8467 on: September 04, 2020, 05:02:29 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on September 04, 2020, 01:08:33 PM
This is quite presumptive.  If those potentially infected guests are quarantining, then even if they're not getting tested, they're still not spreading it.

It's innocuous-seeming assertions like this that are so dangerous in our media, all of the assumptions and presumptions built into the reporting of a story, to further an agenda.

The quote that came right after the quoted "presumptive" clause"

"Of course, failing to acknowledge a problem does not make that problem go away," Ehresmann said, "it just makes it worse .... allowing the virus to spread undetected in the community, which prolongs the outbreak and rolls the dice with lives of people around them."

Ehresmann would be the state Director of Infectious Disease. The clause that's quoted intros that quote, which when read in that order makes sense. Now, you might feel that this epidemiologist has an agenda. But it's not a dangerous part of our media, unless our media is being dangerous by quoting this particular scientist of record and lightly summarizing as an introduction. 

I don't want to be presumptive and ask if you read through the article for the placement of the quote, but the quoted thing is near about the height of innocuous alongside the thing the person said. It probably is redundant, but certianly not a presumption built into reporting to further an agenda. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8468 on: September 04, 2020, 05:23:34 PM »
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8469 on: September 04, 2020, 06:43:51 PM »
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