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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8162 on: August 18, 2020, 05:07:52 PM »
Spies from the Egg Lobby right there, plus nephilim on UFOs.  I learned that last bit in Area 51.

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8163 on: August 18, 2020, 05:33:06 PM »
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8164 on: August 18, 2020, 06:44:34 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 18, 2020, 08:48:42 AM
I think a combination of vaccine and herd immunity will get us there.

Some poll on the MSN home page said that 1/3 of Americans would not get a vaccine, if available.
I wonder if they are the same people who refuse to wear masks and also want everything to open up immediately.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8165 on: August 18, 2020, 06:52:31 PM »
If 1/3 are actually willing to say they won't, then I'd expect the true number to be a larger than that, if only out of laziness and inconvenience, rather than defiance.

I'd certainly get one-- after watching and waithing for at least a couple months to see how things go.

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8166 on: August 18, 2020, 07:11:14 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 18, 2020, 06:52:31 PM
If 1/3 are actually willing to say they won't, then I'd expect the true number to be a larger than that, if only out of laziness and inconvenience, rather than defiance.

I'd certainly get one-- after watching and waithing for at least a couple months to see how things go.


not me man Im first in line

I just hope we wont have to get a 2nd shot later on
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Hawkinole

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8167 on: August 19, 2020, 12:43:54 AM »
I think the initial tests make it relatively certain that the vaccine is safe. If 30,000 receive it in Phase 3, which is going slower than we would like, we should have a good idea about safety, and somewhat of an idea about efficacy. This is August. I think we will have no idea until around March or April at the earliest.
I read an article tonight that suggested the Phase 3 testing is slowed because of the lack of black and latinos participating, and they are slowing until they can recruit more in that these people are in the demographics with the highest rates of infection. They need more participants who are more likely to be exposed to the virus. This was in regard to the Moderna tests.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8168 on: August 19, 2020, 07:40:00 AM »
From a public health standpoint, we only need about 60% vaccinated to close the door on this.  The problem is we might need repeats if immunity is not longer lasting.

The risk is of some malady that doesn't show up in a population for years.  I view that probability as being low given the basic nature of these vaccines.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8169 on: August 19, 2020, 07:42:19 AM »
Ga definitely is trending down now in new infections reported.  I still wonder why.  Some may be the news scared folks into being more careful.  Some may be wider use of face masks.  And some could be that residual resistance thing (we hope it exists).

Maybe in a year or so "we" will start to understand what really happened.

Imagine that it's not resistance from some earlier similar coronavirus, but this thing is even more contagious than we think, AND more asymptomatic.  Ergo, it spread like wildfire back in April/May/June despite any shutdowns, but 80% of those folks had no symptoms (hypothesis).  So, they were not tested, generally speaking.  But they spread it.

And now we've reached HI without knowing it?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8170 on: August 19, 2020, 07:56:58 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 07:42:19 AM

And now we've reached HI without knowing it?
I don't know that we are quite there yet, but we might be getting closer. It's possible that 50% of us have had it.

Wisconsin is trending way down, and they were among the first to open up - while it was still too early to sit outside and eat/drank. There was a pretty big spike in early July here, mostly tied to gatherings. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8171 on: August 19, 2020, 08:01:58 AM »
Obviously, as a community closes in on HI, R naught is going to drop, it's not all or nothing.

If "we" are at say 50%, that would slow the spread ... which is what we're seeing.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8172 on: August 19, 2020, 08:09:55 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 19, 2020, 08:01:58 AM
Obviously, as a community closes in on HI, R naught is going to drop, it's not all or nothing.

If "we" are at say 50%, that would slow the spread ... which is what we're seeing.
In most places, yes. As more travel happens, we'll see more cases among those who have isolated, to a degree.

I'm curious as to what might happen as the result of the huge party in Sturgis.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8173 on: August 19, 2020, 08:14:23 AM »
With 9,758 deaths, Florida sits at a 0.23% death rate. Conservatively assuming that there are 10x as many people infected than the testing shows, the death rate is 0.023%.

Deaths have been increasing on the 7 day average, but hospital admissions are shrinking. This is a very positive sign that says we might be past the worst.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8174 on: August 19, 2020, 08:24:39 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2020, 08:09:55 AM
I'm curious as to what might happen as the result of the huge party in Sturgis.
Those folks generally speaking may not be adhering to guidelines very well at home, so perhaps not much.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8175 on: August 19, 2020, 08:30:21 AM »
Good logic, and possibly more evidence that herd immunity is gaining steam.
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