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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #5334 on:** June 17, 2020, 12:50:46 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:32:36 PM

IMHO Florida should be tier 1. Their numbers are flat out SPIKING right now, not just rising. If you look both at daily numbers and the 7-day moving average, it's like it's turning exponential again.

Texas, with the exception of the huge spike yesterday, hasn't shown anything that makes me think they should be tier 1. If you look at their 7-day moving average, it's following basically the same trend as CA. Meandering higher each day, but not changing slope. And that one-day spike looks to me like it might have some sort of reporting anomaly, and may not reflect a single-day jump.

I won't argue with FL being tier 1.

MN isn't high enough yet to concern me.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5335 on:** June 17, 2020, 12:51:17 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 12:21:18 PM

if only a state opening up was the only factor protests

not sure why Minn Tex Ca are having an increase in cases protests

First, get your facts right. Minnesota daily new cases are going down, and going down fast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html

Second, the daily new case counts in CA and TX have been going up, smoothly, on a pretty similar slope, in both CA and TX. If we had seen an inflection or increase in slope shortly following the protests, maybe you can blame the protests. But in both states the current rate of increase follows similar slope to the rate of increase before the protests could have had any effect.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5336 on:** June 17, 2020, 12:56:11 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 12:41:03 PM

Yes, protests are part of it. Where did someone say it wasn't?

The way you go about this is disgusting, though. It's like you're cheering for it to be protests more than the entirety of a state re-opening. Stop cheerleading your narrative. Follow the EVIDENCE. At least pretend to be impartial.

I am hoping it is mainly caused by the protests simply cause the number of cases will decline a few weeks after the protests stop

Im not making a statement of agreement or disagreement with the protests

utee94 · « **Reply #5337 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:02:10 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:32:36 PM

IMHO Florida should be tier 1. Their numbers are flat out SPIKING right now, not just rising. If you look both at daily numbers and the 7-day moving average, it's like it's turning exponential again.

Texas, with the exception of the huge spike yesterday, hasn't shown anything that makes me think they should be tier 1. If you look at their 7-day moving average, it's following basically the same trend as CA. Meandering higher each day, but not changing slope. And that one-day spike looks to me like it might have some sort of reporting anomaly, and may not reflect a single-day jump.

Huge spike in Texas came partially from two counties reporting a large quantity of previously unreported cases.

"The reported cases for June 16 include 2,622 new cases and 1,476 cases that were previously diagnosed among Texas Department of Criminal Justice inmates but that had not been reported by local health departments (887 from Anderson County and 589 from Brazoria County)." [source]

However, even 2622 would be a record and that means that previous days did NOT include some large spikes that should have been there.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5338 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:09:43 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:51:17 PM

First, get your facts right. Minnesota daily new cases are going down, and going down fast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html

Second, the daily new case counts in CA and TX have been going up, smoothly, on a pretty similar slope, in both CA and TX. If we had seen an inflection or increase in slope shortly following the protests, maybe you can blame the protests. But in both states the current rate of increase follows similar slope to the rate of increase before the protests could have had any effect.

Texas cases started its increase a few days after the protests started

California case numbers took a jump up a few days after the protests started

not saying the protests is the only cause of increased cases only that it should be considered as one of the causes

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5339 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:12:19 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on June 17, 2020, 01:02:10 PM

Huge spike in Texas came partially from two counties reporting a large quantity of previously unreported cases.

"The reported cases for June 16 include 2,622 new cases and 1,476 cases that were previously diagnosed among Texas Department of Criminal Justice inmates but that had not been reported by local health departments (887 from Anderson County and 589 from Brazoria County)." [source]

However, even 2622 would be a record and that means that previous days did NOT include some large spikes that should have been there.

Thanks for the note. That's helpful info.

BTW it would still be a record, but in a state with a steady upslope in case counts you're going to see record days. In the previous 2 weeks, Texas had already had 3 record days, so it's 4 record days in 15. Since May 26, CA has had 5 record days.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5340 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:17:22 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 01:12:19 PM

Thanks for the note. That's helpful info.

BTW it would still be a record, but in a state with a steady upslope in case counts you're going to see record days. In the previous 2 weeks, Texas had already had 3 record days, so it's 4 record days in 15. Since May 26, CA has had 5 record days.

So what happened on May 26th

FearlessF · « **Reply #5341 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:19:38 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 17, 2020, 12:10:48 PM

AZ is up because Governor Ducey opened up the state when daddy Trump told him to. The sharp up-tick in cases is from people going back out into the world, most without masks.

that's on Ducey, not Daddy

utee94 · « **Reply #5342 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:22:14 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 17, 2020, 12:51:17 PM

First, get your facts right. Minnesota daily new cases are going down, and going down fast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html

Second, the daily new case counts in CA and TX have been going up, smoothly, on a pretty similar slope, in both CA and TX. If we had seen an inflection or increase in slope shortly following the protests, maybe you can blame the protests. But in both states the current rate of increase follows similar slope to the rate of increase before the protests could have had any effect.

I won't speak for California, or even the rest of Texas, but in Austin I don't believe your statement is necessarily true. Large protests started 3 weeks ago, the largest increasing age group of new cases in Austin is 20-29, and this is what the case trend looks like in Austin:

[img width=500 height=202.986]https://i.ibb.co/H439vMm/Austin-Covid.png[/img]

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

That's not smooth and steady, by any definition.

Whereas, 3 weeks after reopening on May 1, all trends in Austin metro were actually going down, and continued trending down for 3 weeks-- until this most recent uptick began within the last 10 days.

There's no way to know for sure-- contract tracers are not allowed to ask if the positive test cases attended any protests-- but I believe there's at least some reasonable evidence, in Austin, that the protests are having an effect on the current increasing case counts.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #5343 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:23:29 PM »

I tell people here that Ducey is trying to be Trump Jr and run for prez in 2024 if Trump is re-elected. They always look like they smell a nasty fart when I say it.

Ducey is a Trump stooge, trying to get onto Trump's radar.

FearlessF · « **Reply #5344 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:25:47 PM »

that is also Ducey's fault, not Daddy's

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5345 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:27:49 PM »

Below is a link to a Lancet meta-analysis of studies regarding masks, social distancing, and eye protection. Bottom line: if exposed to someone with the virus, your likelihood of becoming infected sans mask use was 17.4%. With a normal fabric mask, the probability drops down to 3.1%. The effect is even more pronounced with an N95 mask.

I only skimmed to study, it's pretty heavy going, but there are others things it found, such as eye protection being a big help, and the fact that social distancing of 1 meter is better than nothing, 2 meters is better but doesn't offer full protection.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #5346 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:28:50 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 17, 2020, 01:09:43 PM

Texas cases started its increase a few days after the protests started

California case numbers took a jump up a few days after the protests started

not saying the protests is the only cause of increased cases only that it should be considered as one of the causes

Texas spike really started happening with phase 2 opening.

Protests probably didn't help matters.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #5347 on:** June 17, 2020, 01:30:37 PM »

I bet you a dollar 3m of distancing is better than 2......

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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betarhoalphadelta

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longhorn320

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utee94

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longhorn320

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longhorn320

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FearlessF

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utee94

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OrangeAfroMan

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