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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3962 on: May 16, 2020, 01:47:23 PM »
Was the tyrant someone like Boss Tweed or another similar nabob in the Tammany Hall organization?  Or someone more recent, like Jimmy Walker?
It's hard for me to believe that Harvey Weinstein escaped media scrutiny for so long because nobody was able to break the story.  Seems now like every woman in Hollywood knew about his activities.  I think it was more likely the case that nobody wanted, or dared, to break the story.
It's a good point that it can be easier to adopt a cynical attitude rather than to try to separate fact from fiction in every "news" story.  But the journalism community's continuous self-congratulation--along the lines of, "If we're not allowed to tell the truth, who will?"--makes it even easier than it should be.
On my point about mediots, I'm not referring to disbelieving newsreader A when he/she says that the governor said X even after I've seen video (not deceptively edited, which does happen at times) of the governor saying X.  I was thinking more of an opinion-giver who plays fast and loose with the facts, and with the interpretation of those facts.
But there are also a lot of straight-news people who are just incompetent at their jobs, who just don't get the story right.  I've mentioned this before, but I seldom see TV coverage of the military, or print coverage of the military outside of military journals, that doesn't contain significant errors of facts or of comprehension of the significance of those facts.
I am also quite sure that there is a widespread bias in the news media which perhaps wouldn't be so bad except that it's nearly all in one direction.  Except for talk radio, which is biased nearly all in the other direction, making all of it tiresome and more or less easy to disbelieve.
I know that among professional journalists there is something approaching reverence for the "golden age" of TV journalism--the 1960s.  But I was there for that, and I don't think it was golden.  Gilded, perhaps.  It was three commercial network news organizations (plus to an extent PBS news) reporting on the same stories from the same point of view.  The bias wasn't as extreme as I think the bias is now, but it was even more one-sided than today's bias is.
Robert Moses, who was Tammeny Adjacent. 

There's unfortunately a gap between able to break and knowing things. Like I'm sure there's some Oklahoma writers who know there are Sooners players getting paid. But for some reason or another, it's not out there. In Weinstein's case, he leveraged a lot of power on a lot of victims. I'm sure there were at least a few who for some reason or another told their stories and didn't have them publicly out there (in some cases I'm sure with threats to the outlets themselves from Weinstein's lawyers). That's a failure, but likely not one of wanting it covered up. 

Media self congratulation is generally bad. You can believe you're chasing truth while not getting all lathered up about it. There we agree. 

I'd also agree we focus more on the opinion givers because we simply lack the bandwidth to process everything. Likewise, it's a weird job because of how generalist it often is. I wouldn't disagree that a journalist might struggle with the finer details of military command or medicine or anything else. They talk to experts. They try to synthesize. It's often not quite what the experts would want. At times experts get good at speaking for themselves, but also can be unreliable narrators in their own situations (this is fascinating when it comes to sports. Like the minutia of football is just crazy, and we gloss over 99 percent of it all the time, and often coaches or players are uninterested in showing us what's happening)

In the argument of bias, I don't know that I'd argue it isn't there in some form or fashion, but I do think it's overstated to a massive degree. Some of this goes back to bandwidth. Most of news is deeply boring. If you live in a town with a TV station and a newspaper, you've got at minimum 50-60 stories a day locally, probably more. And the vast, vast majority of those are told with little of what we might see as out-and-out bias. Maybe subtle bias (this is interestingly true in terms pro-police stuff), letting a school superintendent say what's happening without a reliable counterbalance, that stuff. But we can't absorb all those stories. The ones that stand out are more vivid, especially the ones that trigger or offend. It's kind of like when you watch a TV sports broadcast. They talk for like 2.5 hours. And most people remember the 2-3 things that annoyed them.  

(I also agree the "golden age" is overrated. It was an era when people were more trusting. It was to a degree smaller and less noisy, but it wasn't that much more pure)

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3963 on: May 16, 2020, 02:01:19 PM »
this not just a development it was a breakthrough

There have been negative responses to this

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/coronavirus-treatment-sorrento-says-it-has-cure/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

T
his really isnt negative but just the fact that it may not lead to anything once it has been tested on animals

OK. 

What makes it a "breakthrough"? If you're a medical person who can give me the expert breakdown as to what it means, I'd love to know. But at the moment, it's words in a press statement, which is fine, but isn't exactly hard proof.

Setting aside the part where the biotech investor type actually just calls it hype, if we're to say, "They found this thing in a lab in cells, but it might not lead to anything" what are we to make of the information? This thing exists. It might be a thing or it might not. So the reaction is just about a feeling of hope, not anything concrete. We don't even know if someone else did the same thing behind closed doors but wanted to wait for animal testing before announcing something hopeful to the press. 

This isn't to be negative, just a call for some moderation. Maybe this is the cure. But for the moment, it's just a nice headline. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3964 on: May 16, 2020, 02:09:18 PM »
Yeah, at this point it has in vitro evidence for efficacy.  I think the "breakthrough" aspect is that it might be the first to get that far.

There is some reason for hope that it would work in the human body, but it also could be viewed by our immune system as foreign and taken out first.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3965 on: May 16, 2020, 02:24:05 PM »
Yeah, at this point it has in vitro evidence for efficacy.  I think the "breakthrough" aspect is that it might be the first to get that far.

There is some reason for hope that it would work in the human body, but it also could be viewed by our immune system as foreign and taken out first.
Im gonna follow this closely as it will be a big deal should animal testing render positive results
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3966 on: May 16, 2020, 02:35:08 PM »
It also suggests the potential for broad antiviral treatments using this technique.  You generate antibodies specific to each type of virus, and whoosh.  I just wonder how our own immune system will respond to these antibodies.

The other good news is I THINK there would be little chance of a bad reaction to it, hopefully, like the cytokine explosion thing.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3967 on: May 16, 2020, 03:23:18 PM »
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3968 on: May 16, 2020, 04:54:28 PM »
Robert Moses, who was Tammeny Adjacent.

There's unfortunately a gap between able to break and knowing things. Like I'm sure there's some Oklahoma writers who know there are Sooners players getting paid. But for some reason or another, it's not out there. In Weinstein's case, he leveraged a lot of power on a lot of victims. I'm sure there were at least a few who for some reason or another told their stories and didn't have them publicly out there (in some cases I'm sure with threats to the outlets themselves from Weinstein's lawyers). That's a failure, but likely not one of wanting it covered up.

Media self congratulation is generally bad. You can believe you're chasing truth while not getting all lathered up about it. There we agree.

I'd also agree we focus more on the opinion givers because we simply lack the bandwidth to process everything. Likewise, it's a weird job because of how generalist it often is. I wouldn't disagree that a journalist might struggle with the finer details of military command or medicine or anything else. They talk to experts. They try to synthesize. It's often not quite what the experts would want. At times experts get good at speaking for themselves, but also can be unreliable narrators in their own situations (this is fascinating when it comes to sports. Like the minutia of football is just crazy, and we gloss over 99 percent of it all the time, and often coaches or players are uninterested in showing us what's happening)

In the argument of bias, I don't know that I'd argue it isn't there in some form or fashion, but I do think it's overstated to a massive degree. Some of this goes back to bandwidth. Most of news is deeply boring. If you live in a town with a TV station and a newspaper, you've got at minimum 50-60 stories a day locally, probably more. And the vast, vast majority of those are told with little of what we might see as out-and-out bias. Maybe subtle bias (this is interestingly true in terms pro-police stuff), letting a school superintendent say what's happening without a reliable counterbalance, that stuff. But we can't absorb all those stories. The ones that stand out are more vivid, especially the ones that trigger or offend. It's kind of like when you watch a TV sports broadcast. They talk for like 2.5 hours. And most people remember the 2-3 things that annoyed them. 

(I also agree the "golden age" is overrated. It was an era when people were more trusting. It was to a degree smaller and less noisy, but it wasn't that much more pure)
I should have guessed Moses.  I just read something online a week or so ago about a movement he was part of in New York to lower the population density in apartment/tenement areas.  The result was high rise apartments in the middle of acreages of cleared-out former slums.  These areas were "in the city, but not part of the city."  The urban vitality and vibe was gone.  He did some good things, I think, but he did a lot of damage as well.  And for decades he was practically unchecked.
I think I got into him lately reading about the Valley of Ashes in The Great Gatsby.  Moses converted it into the 1939 World's Fair park.  It was an environmental mess when he started, and it was a different kind of environmental mess when he finished.
A thing that I think is overlooked in the bias issue is selection of what to report.  PBS news tends to be very careful in its reporting, but the stories it chooses to cover seldom reflect well on one side of the political divide.  Of course, bandwidth is part of it, as you mentioned.
Speaking of people being less trusting, I ran across this quote the other day:
“In 1964, 76 percent of Americans trusted government to do the right thing ‘just about always or most of the time.’ Today, fewer than 20 percent do. The former number is one reason [Lyndon] Johnson did so much; the latter is one consequence of his doing so.” ~ George F. Will
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3969 on: May 17, 2020, 08:56:12 AM »
GA reported 440 news cases yesterday and 10 deaths.  The moving averages on new case reports is about 650.  There appears to be a slight decline in this figure over time, which coupled with increasing testing is pretty good news.   The moving average is 29 deaths reported per day, so 10 is a good figure, this bounces around quite  bit though.

I'm seeing more signs of actual "reopening" now, more traffic, a few more restaurants open, and hair salons opening.  The wife had her hair done yesterday.  My hair is longer than hers.  The weather has been very nice, starting to be warm.  The botanical garden opens Monday with "timed tickets" and only to members.  (They could have done this a month ago I think.)

I have seen one hotel open around us, you can't get in it without a reservation.  It's a brand new hotel, we toured it, the lobby is on the top floor along with a nice looking restaurant and outdoor deck, which we had meant to try when all the S happened.

Various and sundry sources reported GA would be swamped with cases by now and underwater, which fortunately has not happened.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3970 on: May 17, 2020, 09:09:25 AM »
Good news on the declines, especially in deaths which is about the only reasonably significant and trackable stat we have right now.

I will say that across the USA and here in Texico, typically, the reported deaths are low on Sat, Sun, and even Mon, and then usually high on Tuesday, as they catch up on the weekend's reporting.  So I've been looking at Tuesday peaks to see if they're trending down over time.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3971 on: May 17, 2020, 09:11:56 AM »
Good news on the declines, especially in deaths which is about the only reasonably significant and trackable stat we have right now.

I will say that across the USA and here in Texico, typically, the reported deaths are low on Sat, Sun, and even Mon, and then usually high on Tuesday, as they catch up on the weekend's reporting.  So I've been looking at Tuesday peaks to see if they're trending down over time.


Yeah, and last Sunday was the first day <1K deaths since late March. Monday almost came in below 1K as well. 

7-day moving average on deaths is definitely down quite a bit from the peak. 

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3972 on: May 17, 2020, 09:25:22 AM »
Good news on the declines, especially in deaths which is about the only reasonably significant and trackable stat we have right now.

I will say that across the USA and here in Texico, typically, the reported deaths are low on Sat, Sun, and even Mon, and then usually high on Tuesday, as they catch up on the weekend's reporting.  So I've been looking at Tuesday peaks to see if they're trending down over time.


I track national deaths on a weekly basis

my data shows a decline for three weeks in a row and it appears might be four weeks in a row

as I said before I have not seen this reported elsewhere
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3973 on: May 17, 2020, 09:27:49 AM »
perhaps you should notify Fox News
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3974 on: May 17, 2020, 09:28:09 AM »
I set up my own spreadsheet and a couple days later the paper here started reporting 7 day moving averages, which is why I did the spreadsheet.  I'm also doing 10 days.

There is a lot of bounce in dailies.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3975 on: May 17, 2020, 09:36:55 AM »
I set up my own spreadsheet and a couple days later the paper here started reporting 7 day moving averages, which is why I did the spreadsheet.  I'm also doing 10 days.

There is a lot of bounce in dailies.
I agree

Here are my last 4 week death totals

Wk Ending
4/22          19133

4/29          13979

5/6            12630

5/13          10924         
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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