Exactly. The government has been sending mixed messages about this thing from the start. We were told that there would be millions of American's dying from the virus and the hospitals would be overrun. We had to shut down for a short time to prevent this from happening, so we did.
Then after we pretty much came to a standstill, millions being laid off, small business closing, now they move the goal posts. Now we have to stay under our beds in fear until we have a vaccine that could take over a year to develop. Those of us paying attention said NO! We did what you asked and it's time to go back to work. Sure some will get it and a few may die. But that happens everyday with all sorts of preventable causes. We could almost eliminate automobile deaths if we just lower the speed limit to 5 mph. Why not?
The fact is that there is always risk. Just waking up every morning puts you at risk for all kinds of problems. We will NEVER eradicate risks in our lives. We cannot hide forever in our homes hoping not to get sick. Someone has to work to put food or our plates and a roof over our heads. And in so doing, there will be risks. We just need to learn to live our lives in spite of the risks.
1918 is going to repeat itself, methinks. They opened up too early, hit a second wave, and lost 200,000 additional American lives over the next 2 years. I guess if you take the viewpoint that a second wave is inevitable, than I suppose it wouldn't matter if we open up early or not.
Let's talk about opening up for a minute, and what that could mean.
Worst case scenario is this: We open up too early, we hit a second, more severe round, our hospitals get overwhelmed, and we have to go back to strict social distancing or somehow live with a death toll of hundreds of thousands. You think the economy is bad now? I can't even begin to speculate how bad it would be.
Best case scenario: We do a controlled opening, Coronavirus never really goes away, but also doesn't overwhelm the hospitals. Death tolls continue to be in the 500-3000 per day range. People learn to live with social distancing and make the best of it. Restaurants and other businesses try and survive with a fraction of pre-outbreak customers. Almost a guaranteed recession. Major gatherings of people is still probably prohibited for the next few months, and possibly years.
Now, if we keep up with strict social distancing:
Best case scenario: It becomes harder and harder for the virus to be transmitted because there are few possibilities for transmission out there. We reach the ability to test quickly and in massive amounts. Eventually we reach a level where we can start tracing individual outbreaks of COVID again. We implement mandatory testing and possible quarantine periods for international travel. Eventually we reach the level of New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland, China, Switzerland, Portugal, etc. etc. etc. At infection rates this low we can open our country up without restriction, and we have saved many lives. This is achievable as evidenced by the success of other countries. We enter a small recession, but we come out of it without too much permanent damage.
Worst case scenario: Coronavirus cases never decrease and remain flat for months. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Thousands of lives are saved. Economy is at 2008 levels, and looks to be stuck in a rut for the forseeable future. Millions of Americans are in financial disarray. It is a turd.
For me, the risk of opening up early is far too great, and the reward isn't worth it. It isn't like the economy is going to suddenly turn into candy and unicorns because we opened up.