New York City population 8,000,000
Virus deaths reported for NYC 13,000
% = .16%
so what weve already estimated the actual death rate is between .5 and .8%
so what did we prove
I'm not following you here.
Let's take your numbers. As of this exact moment, 16 out of every 10,000 New York City residents has died from Coronavirus. That isn't infected New Yorkers, that's
ALL OF NEW YORK CITY. That means we are at a 0.16% fatality rate as a floor.
But we can still draw reasonable conclusions from this.
1. More New Yorkers will likely die from this disease
2. More New Yorkers will likely become infected with this disease
3. There was a study that tested for coronavirus antibodies in NYC. 19.9% of results came back positive. So on face value it appears that 19.9% of New Yorker city residents have already had the disease. BUT -- We also know that the antibody test has false positives due to interactions with other virus antibodies. We also know that this test was given to volunteers waiting in lines at stores. Presumably if you are out and about, you are at a higher risk of being infected than if you stay at home. This means that the 19.9% test result probably reflects a higher number than we would find in a random sample, and is also inflated by false positives. Even so -- using this math nets us 0.16% x 5 = 0.8% mortality rate. AS A FLOOR.
4. Data appears to show that COVID related deaths are being undercounted.
5. New York city has a lower average age than the rest of the United States. 35.8 vs. 38.2 years.
6. In general, COVID effects older people more severely than younger people.
Conclusion: 0.8% is likely the absolute floor for fatality rates. The actual fatality rate is probably much higher.
But wait -- we can still draw more conclusions. Worldwide, the fatality rate of confirmed cases is just under 7%. We know this isn't an accurate fatality rate, because there simply aren't enough tests to go around, and because a few countries have been hit hard due to lack of adequate medical care. In fact, I would say this number is inflated a few times over.
After looking at the numbers in detail I think a fatality rate of between 1.3% and 2.3% is likely.