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It would have spread rapidly had it been here earlier, just as it spread rapidly in March.  I could not explain how it could have NOT spread and been noticed in December and then spread in March as fast as it did.

The flu season in December was not remarkable.

Like I said, if it didn't hit the vulnerable populations, then the deaths don't rise.  So the illness just looks like more flu, to the people that are getting it.  Perhaps a really bad flu.  Or perhaps not much at all.

It's possible that it only appeared to "spread rapidly" in March, because we didn't start testing for it until March.  At that point, you're effectively testing one tiny thimble into a vast ocean of already-positive, and the case numbers skyrocket.

Our own @GopherRock  was there then, and came down with a pretty bad illness a couple weeks later.

I did not have the illness you are referring to. However, my wife did. She had a weird chest disease that knocked her out for two weeks after we got back. She has "recovered", but her full lung capacity has not returned. Our bike rides this summer were much shorter than previously. She hasn't had blood drawn for antibodies, but I have a sinking suspicion that she had COVID. 

As for timing of arrival in the states, I'd buy a much earlier solution than originally. As noted, my wife and I were in Italy (Rome, Assisi, Venice, Bologna, Reggio Emilia, and Florence) at the end of December, and I hope like hell we weren't a transmission vector. And the first COVID death in the US was in San Jose a month before the first death in Seattle. But I think excess deaths may be a better measure of confirmed deaths, and they didn't go ballistic in the US until March. 

I did not have the illness you are referring to. However, my wife did. She had a weird chest disease that knocked her out for two weeks after we got back. She has "recovered", but her full lung capacity has not returned. Our bike rides this summer were much shorter than previously. She hasn't had blood drawn for antibodies, but I have a sinking suspicion that she had COVID.

As for timing of arrival in the states, I'd buy a much earlier solution than originally. As noted, my wife and I were in Italy (Rome, Assisi, Venice, Bologna, Reggio Emilia, and Florence) at the end of December, and I hope like hell we weren't a transmission vector. And the first COVID death in the US was in San Jose a month before the first death in Seattle. But I think excess deaths may be a better measure of confirmed deaths, and they didn't go ballistic in the US until March.

Sorry for the confusion. I misremembered and thought it was you.

Probably too late for an antibody test. That ship sails at about 3 months. Hopefully her T cells take over, and I really hope she can get her lungs back. Has she tried nebulizers or inhalers, like a Pro Air or even QVar? The latter is a steroid that helps repair lung damage. I've used it ever since I had it. Seems to be helping me.

I personally would have SAID different things in March than Trump SAID.  I'm not sure how much difference it would have made.  I might also have panicked everyone into hoarding something weird, like say toilet paper.

But given Trump down played this, and he did early on, what should WE be doing NOW that we are not doing?

My criticism is that as of early February, per the Woodward tapes, Trump knew it was more deadly than the flu, knew it was airborne transmission, and was publicly downplaying it. 

Now, that may have been great if in March he started to realize it was going to spiral out of control, and changed his tune. But he's continued to downplay it, and actively foment his base against things like distancing and masks, ever since. Even to the point of the debate where he chided Biden "I always see that guy wearing a mask". It played into the absurd masculinity crap of "I'm not going to wear a mask because I'm not scared of this thing." Hell, even after GETTING the virus and needing oxygen and taking experimental treatments, he's tweeting "don't be scared of COVID" even though without the access to medicine and rapid testing he has, given his age and obesity, it very well could have killed him. 

He's been downplaying it since day 1 and turning it into a political issue. His statements, EVER since this started, have been causing the messaging problems I've been highlighting here. 

A proper president would have been telling the truth, and trying to communicate how America could get through this, together. This one just blames the lockdowns and deaths on "cities run by Democrats, all" that are trying to make him look bad. 

It would have spread rapidly had it been here earlier, just as it spread rapidly in March.  I could not explain how it could have NOT spread and been noticed in December and then spread in March as fast as it did.

The flu season in December was not remarkable.

We already know there are at least 6 strains (it appears 6 total, but two are sub-strains of the dominant strain), but one of the key differences is that the strain that originated in China has vastly superseded by what it mutated to in Europe. 

I posted this a week or so ago in response to a discussion with 320: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation -- the S strain -- appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.
"Strain G and its related strains GR and GH are by far the most widespread, representing 74% of all gene sequences we analysed," says Giorgi. "They present four mutations, two of which are able to change the sequence of the RNA polymerase and Spike proteins of the virus. This characteristic probably facilitates the spread of the virus."
If we look at the coronavirus map, we can see that strains G and GR are the most frequent across Europe and Italy. According to the available data, GH strain seems close to non-existence in Italy, while it occurs more frequently in France and Germany. This seems to confirm the effectiveness of last months' containment methods.
In North America, the most widespread strain is GH, while in South America we find the GR strain more frequently. In Asia, where the Wuhan L strain initially appeared, the spread of strains G, GH and GR is increasing. These strains landed in Asia only at the beginning of March, more than a month after their spread in Europe.
Globally, strains G, GH and GR are constantly increasing. Strain S can be found in some restricted areas in the US and Spain. The L and V strains are gradually disappearing.

So it's actually easy to explain how it arrived here prior to the end of 2019, but wasn't really noticed, but then the G strain and its spin-off substrains simply outcompeted the L strain which is slowly disappearing. 

Which also suggests that if the CCP deliberately engineered this virus, they did a crappy job because the mutation far outperforms the original. 

Well, both sides are definitely playing the politicization game. Whichever side "lit" the fire, Trump and the media are both content to constantly throw gasoline on it.

By the time we got to March, "play it down" was the wrong approach IMHO. And he's quite frankly never wavered from that, even after getting it himself and requiring some pretty intense treatment.

I can see both sides of the argument. Have to take it serious, but also can’t incite panic and go overboard. 

Unfortunately I think he played it down too much, and the other side played it up too much. Way too much.

Also- find it odd how when people want to go into the streets and protest in huge crowds by the tens of thousands- media and dems have no problem with that- suddenly coronavirus is no big deal. 

Unfortunately I think he played it down too much, and the other side played it up too much. Way too much.

Both sides politicized it, we had Democrats in March saying to come on out, the water is fine, no need to worry.  Then they flipped of course.  So, if Trump down played it (and I think he did), so did Pelosi and others on the D side.  

Politics.