What if "our" latent resistance is due to some corona exposure in 1995?
That's a major what if, and I hear what you're saying. I have wondered if college kids behaved differently when they were at home. They probably had a tighter circle of exposures at home.
So, we should expect an upsurge in new cases in about two weeks?
As far as resistance based on previous corona, I don't think it's resistance to INFECTION, I think it's resistance to symptoms.
Which means if we're aggressively testing and contact tracing, my thought is that positivity rates would be higher. I would also think it would have shown up in the antibody testing... Although due to antibodies waning over time, I could make an argument that there is a real reason it was missed. Perhaps those people had lower antibodies levels to start and their levels waned below detectability faster.
But there's still a part of me that thinks none of the numbers we've seen are large enough to explain that we're getting closer to some sort of herd immunity level, and *THAT* is why case numbers spike then decline.
And yes, I do believe college kids behaved differently. Not that they were necessarily "safe" at home, but regularly hanging out with your close circle of friends is a LOT different than hanging out with 100 people you don't know at a crowded college bar/nightclub, or a college house party or fraternity party.
Regarding "in two weeks" to which are you referring? Kids going back to school, or something related to the college discussion? I'm not sure what you're asking.
Overall I agree.
But I don't see an inconsistency between the "area under the curve" explanation, and an eventual move toward herd immunity, if you're trying to point out a conflict there?
The "Total area under the curve explanation" actually fits what we're seeing. Every time we open up too much-- particularly shared indoor spaces in relatively close confines-- the cases start to increase. In the US, the places like NY that have "beat" it and remain low, still haven't opened up all of those shared interior spaces. Same thing was true in Europe, until Italy and Spain DID open the bars, and then like clockwork, a few weeks later, cases began to rise.
That's all part of the "area under the curve." It's the idea that the virus is already out there, and will inevitably spread absent MAJOR behavioral modifications from normal. Actions of closing bars and wearing masks and avoiding large crowded gatherings only push the peaks out, delay them, but they don't eliminate them.
The only two things that can eliminate the recurring spikes (absent continued major behavioral modifications), are reaching herd immunity naturally, or implementing an effective virus. Or, of course, some combination of those two things.
Cincy will have to say whether what I'm about to say was interpreting his "area under the curve" argument correctly... It has to do with why he continually brings up Sweden, and continually brings up GA cases dropping when he's not seeing any changes to gov't restrictions and perhaps is anecdotally seeing LESS responsible behavior re: dining/masks than he saw a few weeks ago.
Essentially I take his "area under the curve" argument that the spikes we've had in the places we've had are effectively the upper limit, and we were going to hit those spikes whenever restrictions were eased. But that looking at someplace like Sweden, for example,
the spike is over and there won't be another. They experienced the virus, it hit hard, and now their numbers are waning because whatever level of latent immunity exists is now protecting people more than their behavior or gov't restriction.
It
sounds to me like his argument is that Sweden has already filled up its area under the curve, and there won't be more, regardless of whether they reopen or not.
My take [and it sounds like yours] on the area under the curve is that the total area under the curve is MUCH larger than what we've experienced. If we were going to fully reopen everything right now, and people actually behaved as if we'd beaten this virus, the case and then death tolls would be
staggering.
Cincy--if I'm completely mischaracterizing you, let me know...