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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8302 on: August 27, 2020, 05:26:51 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 27, 2020, 04:06:03 PM
But does that actually hold true in practice with other respiratory viruses? I've never heard that the South gets inverse behavior with respiratory viruses.

I can say that here in Southern California, it still seems to follow seasonal patterns. Granted, we don't have the humidity that y'all have back east, so maybe our heat isn't quite as oppressive. But I've never heard about this in, say, Phoenix either. And nobody goes outside for a few months in the summer if they can avoid it there.
It doesn't, and that's my point.  I'm speculating that whatever weather-driven strengthening/weakening effects might exist for this specific virus, aren't statistically significant due to its extremely infectious nature of this particular virus.  The infectious spread is a result of behavior, rather than inherent characteristics of the nature of the virus.

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8303 on: August 27, 2020, 05:42:20 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 05:26:51 PM
It doesn't, and that's my point.  I'm speculating that whatever weather-driven strengthening/weakening effects might exist for this specific virus, aren't statistically significant due to its extremely infectious nature of this particular virus.  The infectious spread is a result of behavior, rather than inherent characteristics of the nature of the virus.
That's what I can't figure out... If there is a weather component, I'm not sure whether we can say whether that weather component is statistically significant yet.

I do believe behavior is an enormous component. But if weather was an additional brake on transmission, and that brake goes away when the weather gets cool, we could see additional transmission while holding behavior constant. 
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8304 on: August 27, 2020, 05:49:45 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on August 27, 2020, 05:42:20 PM
That's what I can't figure out... If there is a weather component, I'm not sure whether we can say whether that weather component is statistically significant yet.

I do believe behavior is an enormous component. But if weather was an additional brake on transmission, and that brake goes away when the weather gets cool, we could see additional transmission while holding behavior constant.
Oh it certainly could be statistically significant.  I'm just speculating that it's not, or even if there's a slight, true weather-effect, it's still dwarfed by the behavioral effects, maybe 90/10 or something.

And if that's true, then there shouldn't be an expectation that winter weather is going to have any significant effect, other than the behavioral one of all the yankees having to huddle inside for 9 months. :)
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8305 on: August 27, 2020, 06:00:48 PM »
When I lived in Cincy, I basically huddled December to early March by a fire at home.  I hated going out.  I went to work obviously.  The kids no doubt brought interesting microbes home at times.

They are quite healthy now, aside from the one getting the Dreaded Lurgy.

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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8306 on: August 27, 2020, 07:16:22 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 27, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
In France, bars now have to close at 10 PM because the virus wakes up right at that time, apparently.
No, that's not the explanation I read.
I read that it's because antibodies go to sleep at that time.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8307 on: August 27, 2020, 08:33:00 PM »
France is the only country I know of where the bankers go on strike
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8308 on: August 28, 2020, 06:09:18 AM »
Everybody in France goes on strike, often at the same time.  It's part of life.  The garbage collectors were on strike last time I was there, that was not fun.

And they had a manifestation going all day and the bridges were close across the Seine.  We couldn't get to our hotel.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8309 on: August 28, 2020, 07:51:25 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 27, 2020, 05:49:45 PM
other than the behavioral one of all the yankees having to huddle inside for 9 months. :)
Um,no change of seasons is a beautiful thing where as you have two - tumble weeds and those nasty things that blow in off of the ocean :sign0137:   Good luck BTW
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8310 on: August 28, 2020, 09:51:06 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on August 27, 2020, 08:33:00 PM
France is the only country I know of where the bankers go on strike
banks must be run by the government
horrible government like what we have here with teacher's unions
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8311 on: August 28, 2020, 10:07:51 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 28, 2020, 06:09:18 AM
Everybody in France goes on strike, often at the same time.  It's part of life.  The garbage collectors were on strike last time I was there, that was not fun.

And they had a manifestation going all day and the bridges were close across the Seine.  We couldn't get to our hotel.
I experienced a couple of different transportation strikes in France, one for airline workers and one for rail.  Had to change or cancel plans in both cases.  As I recall, those were both fairly sudden.

In Italy one time, the airline workers had a scheduled strike planned for a few days when I was there.  It was well known and advertised ahead of time, the timing and duration were already pre-planned, so I just had to arrange my travel around those dates.  Seemed sort of weird to me, I thought the point of a strike was to cause "pain" and bring to bear some kind of force on management, from the customer base.  But I guess things work differently over there.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8312 on: August 28, 2020, 10:08:53 AM »
I wonder if having lots of strikes makes people feel more connected to their community and government
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8313 on: August 28, 2020, 10:16:49 AM »
Yeah, the French strikes are generally defined ahead of time for a specific duration.  They are very organized about that.  They make some "point" apparently while not inconveniencing other folks as much as a wildcat would.

And yes, we've had to change travel plans ahead of time to avoid strikes.  I've seen the Immigration folks have a slow down that was atrocious.

They generally don't strike in vacation season I've noted.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8314 on: August 28, 2020, 10:24:24 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/sp-500-heads-for-best-august-since-1986-as-stunning-summer-rally-continues.html

This is also interesting to me, as I view the stock market as a kind of collective "wisdom" on the intermediate economy (which can be wrong).  This is a remarkable recovery I doubt many expected in March.  The actual economy is lagging this considerably of course.  Congress seems locked into inaction.  The Fed is pulling out all the stops and then some.  It could be that assets are preferred to cash eq.  It seems to be a guess the COVID thing is manageable and will end soonish.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8315 on: August 28, 2020, 10:25:47 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on August 28, 2020, 10:08:53 AM
I wonder if having lots of strikes makes people feel more connected to their community and government
At least in France, I don't think this is what striking workers have in mind.  The Yellow Vest movement did morph into something akin to a club with social activities.
That was obviously manifestation, not a strike though.


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