header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 473 474 [475] 476 477 ... 1378   Go Down
Author

Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

 (Read 762699 times)

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6636 on: July 11, 2020, 01:43:55 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 11:02:20 AM
I see no evidence this is seasonal.

We're into summer heat here, and yesterday's new case count was nearly 4,500, up from about 2,800, in one day.  We're blowing well past any previous counts. 

Florida is spiking, Arizona, Texas, obviously ....

It COULD be seasonal, of course, which means come Fall it will be much worse than NOW?????
I wouldn't necessarily conflate seasonal with "it will be worse." There aren't very clear answers on why flus and colds shake out that way. Also, had we not had the lockdowns and social distancing, these areas probably would have been hit harder earlier instead of right now.

In any event, maybe "second wave" is a better term. Areas like Italy and New York were hit hard and certainly are doing better now. So I'm watching the numbers in those areas more closely - if they tick back up or not should tell us the earliest whether we are going to get another round.
Logged

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71550
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6637 on: July 11, 2020, 02:48:12 PM »
I think it's semantics, so I'm OK with "2nd wave", but I view it more as continuation of wave one.

The 1918-1919 flu had a clear second (and third) wave because apparently the virus mutated.

Is there any reason to think Italy et al. won't see a resurgence as they reopen?  More mask wearing perhaps?

Yesterday here was really bad.
Logged

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25234
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6638 on: July 11, 2020, 03:12:09 PM »
I'm seeing masks on about 95 percent of people here in Wisconsin. Despite being full-on open (zero restrictions at all) for almost 2 months, the spikes we are seeing elsewhere are not happening up here.

Wisconsin people are smart, I guess.
Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25234
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6639 on: July 11, 2020, 03:15:37 PM »
Then there's Florida... Mostly SE, Tampa and Orlando areas.

SW Florida is doing very well. Smart people live there, like me and stuff.




Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25234
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6640 on: July 11, 2020, 03:37:03 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on July 10, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
He said in the millions were possible if we do nothing or if the things we do just don't work. He said millions is "unlikely" if we do those things.

It turns out we did something. We did a LOT of something. Most of the country was bitching about the something we did.

Now we're going to call him wrong like he predicted millions of deaths that haven't happened, when we did the very things he told us would keep the possibility of millions of deaths from happening?
Except that not everybody did something. Many states never closed at all. I know people who never social distanced. Of course, I won't see those people any time soon because I don't trust stupid.

I wouldn't say he was wrong. He was relying on that U Washington model at the time. It's all we had, and we knew little to nothing about this virus.

I suspect we will be learning more about the virus and its origins in the not-to-distant future, so long as the people in the know haven't been disappeared yet.

F China.
Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18849
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6641 on: July 11, 2020, 03:43:26 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 11, 2020, 03:15:37 PM
Then there's Florida... Mostly SE, Tampa and Orlando areas.

SW Florida is doing very well. Smart people live there, like me and stuff.





I could rewrite your post as:  Population populations....population, population's population.  Population population, population.
Logged
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18849
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6642 on: July 11, 2020, 03:47:37 PM »
Dr. Fauci should not be blamed for a damn thing.

He knew there was nothing to say when we had no data.  But he had President Adolescence behind him making him say something.
He knew what the cautious, best practices would be, but was talking to the masses, who don't seem to understand what cautiousness is.

He shouldn't have agreed to do it.  But he cared enough to do something he didn't want to do and knew there'd be no way to do it successfully.  

Logged
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18849
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6643 on: July 11, 2020, 03:58:15 PM »
I did want to ask - how many dead kids is acceptable? 

I understand that there's a sliding scale between being open and the economy humming along vs deaths here, and we can't have it at either end of the spectrum.  We can't keep the speed limit 5 mph on every road, I get it.
But we've been dealing with mostly old people and some adults down to college age.


But yeah, it's about to get real if we're about to send 50 million children into classrooms.  I know we're talking about tenths or hundredths of a percent perhaps, but I'd like to convert that to a whole number. 

How many dead children is acceptable?
1?
10?
100?
1,000?
10,000? - 10,000 dead kids is only 0.02% of 50 million
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 04:04:19 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
Logged
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71550
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6644 on: July 11, 2020, 04:22:02 PM »
French students K-12 were back to school recently for two weeks, and now are out on break until September, as planned.  We might see what becomes of their experience, but of course they have managed to "mitigate" the virus to this point effectively.  It's still around though.

Staying "closed" longer does mitigate better, no doubt, but will the area under the curve be different?  Sweden, as often noted, has not been a massive disaster, worse than the neighbors, but still not a disaster.

Area under the curve, it's important.  Not overwhelming the health care system is critically important, and we're nearing that point in some states.
Logged

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25234
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6645 on: July 11, 2020, 04:55:17 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 11, 2020, 03:47:37 PM
Dr. Fauci should not be blamed for a damn thing.  


Let me know when someone blames him.

And tone it down.
Logged
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18849
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6646 on: July 11, 2020, 05:01:34 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 11, 2020, 04:22:02 PM
  Sweden, as often noted, has not been a massive disaster, worse than the neighbors, but still not a disaster.
Per 100,000 people, Sweden has:
~4x the death rate of Denmark
~7x the death rate of Finland and Norway

Sweden's 35 deaths per 100,000 applied to the U.S. (24 deaths per 100K) would increase our dead from 137,000+ to 200,000.  

Sweden isn't a good model for anything but more dead people.  Sweden is what you'd have gotten if every state had a republican governor.  Get Sweden out of your head.  
Logged
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6647 on: July 11, 2020, 05:56:26 PM »
As far as I can tell, Sweden kept schools open and had one coronavirus death for someone 19 or younger. (Feel free to double check those stats because they were difficult for me to figure out). The US has about 32× the population of Sweden.
Logged

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71550
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6648 on: July 11, 2020, 07:22:56 PM »
Sweden is not the massive disaster some predicted.  Optimal?  Ideal?

Maybe not, we will see.

Area under the curve.
Logged

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6649 on: July 11, 2020, 10:01:47 PM »
Sweden has a coherent long-term plan. It may not ultimately be as successful, death wise, as others, though it's premature to say right now. We have no coherent plan as a country - every state has some sort of plan. Some of them are coherent and some are not. In any event, there isn't a ton of evidence that opening schools is going to drastically impact kids.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 473 474 [475] 476 477 ... 1378   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
WeatherPROOF Sign Single Sided

FAFO No Trespassing Sign