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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6650 on: July 11, 2020, 10:23:14 PM »
In any event the conversation should be geared towards what we are willing to accept and not accept. We've let our kids play with our neighbor's kids a few times. That's essentially. The only time they've interacted with other kids in months. And for them, got what? They have perhaps a 1 in a 500000 chance to die from the disease? How much should they sacrifice to prevent the deaths of older people, especially when there isn't much evidence they will cause appreciably more deaths.

Kris60

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6651 on: July 11, 2020, 11:00:14 PM »


How many dead children is acceptable?


Idk. I’ve been wanting to ask this question of pro choice advocates for years, but I digress.  Look, no one wants one more death from this thing, especially if it’s a kid.

But will you do me a favor? If schools open and a kid dies just don’t blame anyone. Don’t be one of those people frothing at the mouth wanting to put blood on someone’s head.

There are no easy answers. There are no easy solutions.  There is a lot of Monday Morning Quarterbacking with this thing.  I’m sure leaders at every level would like a mulligan on some decisions that have been made or things said.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6652 on: July 12, 2020, 02:18:27 AM »
The Monday morning quarterbacking is born of the masses and the leaders being allergic to saying, "I don't know."  Leaders won't say it because the masses won't accept it.  So some B.S. is constructed as a placeholder that may or may not turn out to be accurate.

It's Exhibit 9,829,034 of what makes our society embarrassing.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6653 on: July 12, 2020, 02:23:16 AM »
 In any event, there isn't a ton of evidence that opening schools is going to drastically impact kids.
No one has said a drastic impact.  But when you're talking a sample of 50,000,000 kids, a teeny-tiny % of them dying is still a bunch of kids.

So I guess the consensus here is that their deaths are acceptable, too.  Add their bodies to the scores of teachers and support staff then.  Multitudes more of their deaths - maybe it'll help minimalize the dead children.  Maybe cover their bodies up with the larger teachers...you know, so the local pizza shop can stay open.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6654 on: July 12, 2020, 07:23:52 AM »
I don't know that it's about a pizza shop.  Does school have value?  If so, what is it?

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6655 on: July 12, 2020, 07:37:01 AM »
All this has the value of allowing some to use the issue, or attempt to, as a political bludgeon.

Does anyone here think we can shut down nearly everything again?  Realistically?  The school issue is difficult, and I think there is no "right decision", but to think we can shut down public schools indefinitely strikes me as unrealistic.

I keep thinking about area under the curve.  We could delay the inevitable for a time, but I suspect it will grade out anywhere unless we nearly all wear masks in public and/or an effective vaccine is widely available.

I have some hope more people will wear a mask when needed, the vaccine issue is probably March before it is widely in use.  If we delay the school year, how long does that stay shuttered?


Kris60

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6656 on: July 12, 2020, 07:47:57 AM »
No one has said a drastic impact.  But when you're talking a sample of 50,000,000 kids, a teeny-tiny % of them dying is still a bunch of kids.

So I guess the consensus here is that their deaths are acceptable, too.  Add their bodies to the scores of teachers and support staff then.  Multitudes more of their deaths - maybe it'll help minimalize the dead children.  Maybe cover their bodies up with the larger teachers...you know, so the local pizza shop can stay open.
But again, if you couch keeping schools closed in terms of “if it saves just one child’s life” then you are guilting the world into hiding in their houses forever.

For parents who feel the risk is too high they do have the option of staying home and home schooling them.  Same with teachers. They can open the schools but they can’t force you to go to work.  Everyone has a different level of risk they are willing to accept.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6657 on: July 12, 2020, 07:54:42 AM »
The equation is difficult to balance.

Schooling is a positive for most.  Being grouped together has a significant risk of exposure to COVID (which could spread to parents and grandparents of course).

Do you attempt to have school with the best controlled environment possible or try and keep kids at home, not playing with friends, not playing soccer, pretty much not doing much of anything.  That has a cost as well.

If you delay school say 6 months, how is that made up?  Do seniors have to go to summer school next year in order to graduate?


longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6658 on: July 12, 2020, 10:09:07 AM »
we are not the first country to open the schools 

several other countries have done so

are there any stats on this and/or info on what is working or what doesnt work
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6659 on: July 12, 2020, 10:10:02 AM »
France opened schools for two weeks, but the current rate of new infections in France is very low comparatively.

They are now on break until September.


longhorn320

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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6661 on: July 12, 2020, 10:40:55 AM »
No one has said a drastic impact.  But when you're talking a sample of 50,000,000 kids, a teeny-tiny % of them dying is still a bunch of kids.

So I guess the consensus here is that their deaths are acceptable, too.  Add their bodies to the scores of teachers and support staff then.  Multitudes more of their deaths - maybe it'll help minimalize the dead children.  Maybe cover their bodies up with the larger teachers...you know, so the local pizza shop can stay open.
OAM, you have to understand that there is a reason for a balance. 

Just as nobody is suggesting that we furlough all the police or fire departments, or that we tell doctors and nurses that we should close all the hospitals, because there is significant social value to having certain essential services. How many deaths of our doctors and nurses are acceptable? 

What happens to those kids if we have a year entirely composed of distance learning? I can tell you as a father of three, their distance learning was nowhere near as complete as in-person education. For my 11 year old autistic child who needs more individualized instruction using specialized techniques? Distance learning was effing useless. That goes beyond all the negative social impacts from being out of school for the year. 

You talk about the "masses" with derision [which I get; I do it too]. What's going to happen to the students across the country when their parents--the "masses" you speak so critically of--have to be their substitute teacher for a year? 

Our youth won't be meaningfully hurt if the local pizza shop closes. They WILL be meaningfully hurt by a year without school. 

Oh, and for those adults who absolutely must physically go to work? Guess what, those kids might get exposed to COVID in their day care or whatever child care situation their parents have to put them in, but won't get the benefit of actually having a teacher instruct them during the day.

The questions is how can we quantify the risk of school, and is that risk larger than the reward of being in school? So far, the limited evidence suggests that as it relates to their own health, children are an extremely low-risk group. You say "multitudes" of deaths... But can you quantify that? Will it be higher or lower than the number of kids who die in car accidents on their way to/from school every year? While every death is a tragedy, are they at high enough risk that we're going to shunt every child's intellectual development by giving them a year off school?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6662 on: July 12, 2020, 10:43:32 AM »
France opened schools for two weeks, but the current rate of new infections in France is very low comparatively.

They are now on break until September.
On another subject, what is going to happen to Europe over the next two months of their traditional vacation time? 

July/August is usually when everything is closed and people flock to the coasts for vacation. A lot of their recent reopenings to travel within the Schengen Zone, from what I've read, seem to be to reignite tourism that shut down during COVID. 

Is the EU going to be seeing a resurgence over the next two months as people get complacent about having "beaten" COVID and go back to normal? 

MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #6663 on: July 12, 2020, 11:06:24 AM »
OTOH imagine being a school administrator trying to figure this out and this is the advice you get:


https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1282303297932742665?s=19

 

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