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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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longhorn320 · « **Reply #6286 on:** July 02, 2020, 07:52:46 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:05:59 PM

Well, Austin and surrounding areas mandatory mask orders went into effect earlier this week, San Antonio was last week, and I have no idea when Houston and Dallas started doing it.

Basically this order was providing political and legal air cover for the major metros who had already put in the ordinance, and it will force the smaller towns that might or might not be doing it, to comply. Of course, ENFORCING it in those areas, is another matter.

2 weeks ago for Houston

utee94 · « **Reply #6287 on:** July 02, 2020, 07:56:23 PM »

Heh, I read through the governor's executive order, and it makes an exception for drivers in their cars-- alone. So presumably, people in cars with more than one person, should all be wearing masks. Telling immediate/nuclear families that they have to mask up while driving in a car together, isn't going to go over well.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6288 on:** July 02, 2020, 07:59:01 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 02, 2020, 07:56:23 PM

Heh, I read through the governor's executive order, and it makes an exception for drivers in their cars-- alone. So presumably, people in cars with more than one person, should all be wearing masks. Telling immediate/nuclear families that they have to mask up while driving in a car together, isn't going to go over well.

so you got your two year old in the baby seat do you put a mask on them

I really doubt it

utee94 · « **Reply #6289 on:** July 02, 2020, 08:04:26 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on July 02, 2020, 07:59:01 PM

so you got your two year old in the baby seat do you put a mask on them

I really doubt it

Kids under 10 are exempted anyway. But me, my wife, my 12yo, and my 10yo, are not. At least not technically.

Practically, I'll be surprised if anyone attempts to enforce that.

GopherRock · « **Reply #6290 on:** July 02, 2020, 11:16:40 PM »

The Mrs. and I are on the list for antibody tests.

The Costcos here in MSP are quite aggressive about enforcing mask usage. This week one person tried to get in without one and the staff were having none of it. Another person tried the take-off play and was swiftly shown out.

Elsewhere in the general public, mask usage is directly correlated to how close you are to the downtown core. Pretty frequent inside the 494/694 loop, but it drops off fast outside.

CWSooner · « **Reply #6291 on:** July 03, 2020, 12:55:07 AM »

https://www.scarymommy.com/natural-herd-immunity-not-going-to-solve-covid-19/

6 Things You Need To Know About Herd Immunity And COVID-19

by Kristen Mae July 1, 2020

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elenabs/Getty

“But it’s good that people are getting infected, it means we’re getting closer to herd immunity!”
Among all the junk science and conspiracy theories about coronavirus, this one is probably the least ridiculous-sounding. I mean, we use vaccines to achieve herd immunity and prevent the spread of contagious diseases like measles and chickenpox. The 1918 flu epidemic ended when the virus finally burned itself out via herd immunity. So why not aim for herd immunity with COVID-19? Why not just let the low-risk people get sick and be done with this thing?
What Herd Immunity Actually Is
The phrase “herd immunity” is thrown around too much when we talk about COVID-19. When epidemiologists talk about herd immunity, especially when it comes to diseases with a high mortality rate like COVID-19, they aren’t usually referring to the natural variety. They’re usually referring to herd immunity via vaccination—when enough people have been vaccinated against an illness that their inability to spread that illness protects those in the population who are unable to be vaccinated.
“Herd immunity” refers to a collective protectionism. As many people as possible get vaccinated, thereby protecting individuals unable to vaccinate—like infants or the immunocompromised. The term “herd” is key here as it mirrors the way herds of animals collectively and cooperatively protect the weakest among them. It’s not “Let a whole bunch of people get sick and die so the virus finally has nowhere else to go, yay, we won!”
The Death Toll Of Herd Immunity For COVID-19
Speaking of death, let’s say for a moment we were to deliberately aim for natural herd immunity against COVID-19. Let’s do that math and see what it would take.
Epidemiologists estimate that herd immunity for COVID-19 would require about 70% of the population to have contracted the virus and be immune.
70% of the population of the United States is 229 million.
As of this writing, 2.6 million Americans have been confirmed to have been infected with COVID-19. However, experts now say, based on serology testing (antibody testing), that the infected number is likely ten times higher than that. It’s easy to see the logic in this since we know many mild or asymptomatic cases would not be confirmed via a COVID-19 test, because why would someone seek a test if they weren’t symptomatic? Also, we were short on tests for several months, so people couldn’t get tested.
So, 2.6 million confirmed, but an estimated 26 million-ish people actually infected. Of those 26 million, so far 126,000 have died (we won’t factor in that of current active cases, many still have yet to die).
Remember, 229 million people must get infected with COVID-19 in order to reach herd immunity. We’re 203 million short—we need nearly eight times this amount. And, based on the current death rate of 126,000 for every 26 million cases of COVID-19, that means that in order to reach herd immunity, we could expect to see 982,000 deaths.
I don’t know about you, but I am not okay with losing a million Americans to COVID-19.
If Herd Immunity Even Works At All
[img width=614.844 height=369.418 alt=Natural Herd Immunity Is Not Going To Solve Our COVID-19 Problem]https://3a60h1vxk0ezoe7oqzr8fl8l-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/herd-immunity-truth-extra-1.jpg[/img][/color][/size]

Rob Curran/Unsplash

Scary math scenarios aside, it’s important to note that immunity may not function in COVID-19 as it does with other viruses. Although other coronaviruses, like SARS and MERS, generate antibodies that last for at least a year, in at least one study, COVID-19 antibodies were shown to decrease after only a couple of months. So, until we more fully understand whether or not antibodies following an infection truly provide protection from reinfection, natural herd immunity is not something we should aspire to.
Infection Doesn’t Stop Once We Reach Our Magic “Herd Immunity Number”
The other thing many people don’t realize when they talk about herd immunity is that when we hit this number—this magic 70%—infections don’t simply stop. The final percentage of people infected could end up being as high as 90%. Given the death tolls counted above, this is not a match we want to light.
Unlike Vaccine-Derived Herd Immunity, Natural Herd Immunity Does Not Protect The Most Vulnerable
When I discussed herd immunity above, I talked about how the immunized “herd” is meant to act as a protective layer to prevent transmission to vulnerable community members who cannot be vaccinated. With COVID-19, we’ve been recommending that high-risk individuals, such as those over 65, self-isolate to avoid exposure. Say they actually do this—remain inside while the greater population intentionally gets itself sick to achieve herd immunity. Once a population reaches herd immunity, everyone begins to socialize like before. All it would take is one single infected individual in a retirement community or nursing home to get sick to cause a devastating outbreak within that community. Because, within the community itself, there is no herd protection. They didn’t participate in the drive to natural herd immunity, because they couldn’t. The only way to offer true herd immunity, even within high-risk populations, is with a vaccine.
If Herd Immunity Isn’t The Answer, What Is?
The answer is to do whatever we can to slow the spread of this virus. That means social distancing, avoiding crowds, and wearing a mask when you must go out. It means using common sense. It means listening to experts—actual experts who have the agreement of their peers who are also experts and not some fringe radical who was excommunicated from the scientific community and made a YouTube video. It means giving a shit about your fellow humans. It means not acting like an entitled asshole. It means doing all of these things, and it means doing these things until the thousands of scientists working on this thing around the clock come up with either a vaccine or an effective treatment.

CWSooner · « **Reply #6292 on:** July 03, 2020, 01:09:49 AM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on July 02, 2020, 01:28:46 PM

That’s life. There’s no way to be 100% safe in life period. Have to go on living. Can’t hide inside like a pansy and be scared of life.

I do a shit ton of driving. I’ve probably got a way better shot of being killed in a car accident than this COVID bullshit. Especially in South Florida. Have you seen the roads there? 3-4-5 Horrific accidents every single hr of every single day here. It’s insane. Do I stop driving? No. Why? Because I’m not a fucking pussy and I have to live my life.

Does wearing a mask and social-distancing = being a fucking pussy?

EDIT: I've seen since I posted this that you wear a mask. So what are fucking pussies doing that pisses you off?

FearlessF · « **Reply #6293 on:** July 03, 2020, 10:46:34 AM »

Quote from: CWSooner on July 03, 2020, 12:55:07 AM

It means listening to experts—actual experts who have the agreement of their peers who are also experts and not some fringe radical who was excommunicated from the scientific community and made a YouTube video.

where are these experts hiding and how do we find them and educate the masses?

hell, how can we get the real experts to educate our leaders?

seems impossible with our group of leaders and media

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6294 on:** July 03, 2020, 11:06:33 AM »

The experts seem pretty consistent and common sensical to me. I know scientists are not always adept at dealing with reporters who are idiots.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #6295 on:** July 03, 2020, 12:05:54 PM »

Some good news on the vaccine front:

Oxford Vaccine gives off long term immunity

GopherRock · « **Reply #6296 on:** July 03, 2020, 12:09:53 PM »

Well, that was fast. Doc ordered the blood draw at 4:00 yesterday afternoon, and a vial of my blood was in the system by 9:30 this morning. Results in 5-7 business days.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6297 on:** July 03, 2020, 12:25:42 PM »

Quote from: GopherRock on July 03, 2020, 12:09:53 PM

Well, that was fast. Doc ordered the blood draw at 4:00 yesterday afternoon, and a vial of my blood was in the system by 9:30 this morning. Results in 5-7 business days.

do you think you already had the virus

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6298 on:** July 03, 2020, 12:46:33 PM »

Woke up in the middle of the night with severe chills. No fever, wife gave me Tylenol which helped. So far this morning I haven't developed a fever, but the Tylenol is probably just reaching the point where it'll wear off.

Hoping it was just too much beer.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6299 on:** July 03, 2020, 12:52:38 PM »

Tylenol is not a good choice if you consume a lot of alcohol, seriously.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

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longhorn320

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utee94

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GopherRock

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CWSooner

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CWSooner

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FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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GopherRock

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longhorn320

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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