Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

So the fact that it turns out the virus isn't going to be lethal enough to kill 2-3 million Americans, is about the best news we can expect.

I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?

I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?

If it rips through every nursing home in America then 1M-2M could certainly happen.  

I don't believe it will, and so I don't believe it's going to hit those numbers. 

If it rips through every nursing home in America then 1M-2M could certainly happen. 

I don't believe it will, and so I don't believe it's going to hit those numbers.

We'd have to all get nakid and sit on each others laps to reach 1M dead

So.....I see the naysayers are part of a certain tribe.  Way to keep it respectable, guys.  I'm all done labeling your behavior or name-calling...you are who you are.  Oh well.


Anyhow, Trump's paying us a visit next, here in AZ.  And why not ...

My personal input is there in blue, of course.  
I guess this thing isn't going away with hot temps, huh?  So that guessing game didn't pan out.
The myth here isn't that 1-2 million deaths is probable, it's that this is a second wave.  No, it's a continuation of the initial wave, because we never allowed that to subside.  

Also, the masses are mindless sheep - and THAT is why it's irresponsible to downplay the virus or open up a state.  The masses will blindly believe all is well and go out into the world, back to work, and interact with all the germs, just as they had before.  And that's how the above graph happens.  3,000+ new cases PER DAY.

And before you say, "yeah, but that's just cases" - STOP.  Our hospitals are full.  We are fucked.  Yes, I said "we," despite not being 83 years old in a nursing home...because those lives aren't worth any less than mine is.  And fuck anyone downplaying their deaths.

People are waiting in lines to be tested for 10+ hours in the SW area (the poor, hispanic area).  


Now who wants to visit ole OAM?!?

And of course as is often the case, there can be facts available one has to ignore to keep to the preferred theme.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/22/881703745/california-hits-new-high-in-covid-19-hospitalizations

One COULD claim this is due to the protests of course.  I don't because I'm aware I don't have the data needed to form that conclusion, nor the conclusion that states should have stayed completely shuttered because of COVID.

It is consistent with what we know to hypothesize that every state is going to experience the same "area under the curve", NY/NJ got hit earliest and hardest and now are recovering.  I don't know if this is partial herd immunity kicking in or whether all the stay at home was effective.  NY is reopening now, so perhaps we'll know in 2-3 weeks.

The EU countries are reopening now as well.  And I'd note that Sweden is not a complete basket case, their choice may not have been ideal of course, but they have not gotten worse than several other EU countries.

So.....I see the naysayers are part of a certain tribe.  Way to keep it respectable, guys.  I'm all done labeling your behavior or name-calling...you are who you are.  Oh well.


Anyhow, Trump's paying us a visit next, here in AZ.  And why not ...




Now who wants to visit ole OAM?!?

apparently, your buddy Trump wants to visit.  Perhaps change your way of thinking?

There are three ways to "analyze" this:

1.  Start with the premise it has the be awful, for political reasons, and search for whatever you can cherry pick to support that conclusion.

2.  Start with the premise this has to be not really bad at all and we over reacted, and search for whatever you can ...

3.  Try and analyze what is happening without any bias or pre-conclusions going in, this is a lot harder.