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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5712 on: June 23, 2020, 09:23:15 AM »
There are three ways to "analyze" this:

1.  Start with the premise it has the be awful, for political reasons, and search for whatever you can cherry pick to support that conclusion.

2.  Start with the premise this has to be not really bad at all and we over reacted, and search for whatever you can ...

3.  Try and analyze what is happening without any bias or pre-conclusions going in, this is a lot harder.
I'll go with option 3, thank you.

The problem I see is that as we open, people forget this thing is still here and is not going away.

People still need to wear a mask in public, and many aren't. People still need to keep a safe distance, and they aren't. People need to get tested (both tests), and they aren't.

These are 3 (4) easy things to do. I don't get why people can't just follow along for a while longer.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5713 on: June 23, 2020, 09:42:26 AM »
Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎
The thought of OAM at a Trump rally, is what I was remarking upon, as a "sight to behold." :)

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5714 on: June 23, 2020, 09:43:57 AM »
Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎
orange on orange
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5715 on: June 23, 2020, 09:56:37 AM »
Don't go to bed with any woman crazier than you. - Frank Zappa

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5716 on: June 23, 2020, 09:57:20 AM »

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5717 on: June 23, 2020, 10:17:26 AM »
I read yesterday that a single gathering at a bar in the UCF of Orlando area led to 150 new cases - college kids.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5718 on: June 23, 2020, 10:28:59 AM »
Wasn't you 1%ers down at the harbor? :party0036:
Don't go to bed with any woman crazier than you. - Frank Zappa

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5719 on: June 23, 2020, 10:33:43 AM »
Wasn't you 1%ers down at the harbor? :party0036:
We kept our distance and washed our hands a lot, and it was really hot and humid outside. None of us want to be exposed. We're all pretty smart people.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5720 on: June 23, 2020, 10:59:04 AM »
as far as you know
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Riffraft

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5721 on: June 23, 2020, 12:21:11 PM »
I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?
This 5% rate may be true, but it is a false data point. Unless it has change in the last two weeks over 42% of deaths were associated with nursing homes (see Forbes article I posted then). 


Overall the statistics show that it is a bad flu season except for this class of people. Isolate those class of people and put in proper controls there and this too will pass

Riffraft

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5722 on: June 23, 2020, 12:24:22 PM »
So.....I see the naysayers are part of a certain tribe.  Way to keep it respectable, guys.  I'm all done labeling your behavior or name-calling...you are who you are.  Oh well.


Anyhow, Trump's paying us a visit next, here in AZ.  And why not ...

My personal input is there in blue, of course. 
I guess this thing isn't going away with hot temps, huh?  So that guessing game didn't pan out.
The myth here isn't that 1-2 million deaths is probable, it's that this is a second wave.  No, it's a continuation of the initial wave, because we never allowed that to subside. 

Also, the masses are mindless sheep - and THAT is why it's irresponsible to downplay the virus or open up a state.  The masses will blindly believe all is well and go out into the world, back to work, and interact with all the germs, just as they had before.  And that's how the above graph happens.  3,000+ new cases PER DAY.

And before you say, "yeah, but that's just cases" - STOP.  Our hospitals are full.  We are fucked.  Yes, I said "we," despite not being 83 years old in a nursing home...because those lives aren't worth any less than mine is.  And fuck anyone downplaying their deaths.

People are waiting in lines to be tested for 10+ hours in the SW area (the poor, hispanic area). 


Now who wants to visit ole OAM?!?
First, we can protect the nursing home people with draconian measure and should be doing everything to protect them. And yes we will continue interacting with germs, live people have done for the existence of humanity. I am not convinced by the "experts" and have been convinced by data analysis that this virus is not the bubonic plague.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5723 on: June 23, 2020, 12:33:16 PM »
Report Suggests Some ‘Mildly Symptomatic’ Covid-19 Patients Endure Serious Long-Term Effects


Quote
However, the rapid recovery has not been the experience of thousands - perhaps tens of thousands - of patients worldwide who’ve been classified as mild cases. Many struggle for months with lingering Covid-19 symptoms that can be debilitating. They exhibit shortness of breath, extreme fatigue, intermittent fevers, cough, concentration issues, chest pressure, headaches, and heart palpitations, among other symptoms. The literature has a name for them: “long-haulers.”

In the Netherlands, the Lung Foundation, together with the University of Maastricht and the CIRO group,* surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients who had reported a number of long-term effects from their illness. Ninety-one percent of the patients were not hospitalized, which indicates that the vast majority of the surveyed patients would fall under the category “mildly symptomatic.” The average age of the patients surveyed was 53.

Nearly 88% of patients reported persistent intense fatigue, while almost three out of four had continued shortness of breath. Other enduring symptoms included, among other things, chest pressure (45% of patients), headache and muscle ache (40% and 36%, respectively), elevated pulse (30%), and dizziness (29%). Perhaps the most startling finding was that 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves healthy prior to getting Covid-19. One or more months after getting the disease, only 6% consider themselves healthy.


FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5724 on: June 23, 2020, 12:35:54 PM »
hah, you get to be 53 years old and you're going to have some of those issues
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5725 on: June 23, 2020, 12:47:57 PM »
This 5% rate may be true, but it is a false data point. Unless it has change in the last two weeks over 42% of deaths were associated with nursing homes (see Forbes article I posted then).


Overall the statistics show that it is a bad flu season except for this class of people. Isolate those class of people and put in proper controls there and this too will pass
I think this keeps getting stated, but I'm not sure it's true at all. 

Remember, the flu ALSO disproportionately kills the old and those with comorbid health factors. So if you want to figure out how this affects "a class of people" relative to the flu, you have to factor that in. 

For example, I'm 41 years old, healthy, with no known heart or respiratory issues. My risk of mortality to the flu is extremely low. Much lower than the typical flu mortality rates in the 0.10-0.15% range. Because that 0.10-0.15% range for the flu includes the much more severely affected populations.

I suspect, although I don't have the data to back this up, that COVID-19 is significantly higher mortality for people in the "low-risk" age/health groups than the flu. That doesn't mean it's high, but let's not act like this is "just like the flu". 

This thing has already killed 2x as many people in the US than the worst flu season in the last decade, and is rapidly approaching 4x the annual average. 

So even with the data point that 42% of deaths were nursing homes, that still leaves more deaths than the worst flu season in the last decade.

If you take the data point that's been bandied about here that ~80% of all deaths are in people over 65, that still leaves ~25,000 deaths. The average flu season over the last decade is 37,000 deaths, and that includes people over 65, who account for between 70 and 85% of flu-related deaths as well.

So if you assume an average of 37,000 flu deaths per year, and the low end of 70% of those deaths are above 65 years old, that leaves 11,100. If you take the worst flu season in the past decade of 61,000 deaths and extract out those over 65, that leaves 18,300.

So at 25,000 deaths to people under 65, we're already around 2.5x worse than a typical flu season, and around 1.5x as bad as the worst flu season in the last decade. And that's in the span of three months with infection rates not going away by any stretch.

This is not the flu!

 

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