Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Trump?Or his way of thinking? 😎

orange on orange crime

Wasn't you 1%ers down at the harbor?

I think north of 1M is certainly plausible, and 2-3M isn't out of the question depending on whether or not we find a solid treatment or a vaccine...

Remember, with 2.39M known cases we're still at a case fatality rate over 5%. Obviously the real number is lower than that because we need to figure out mild/asymptomatic cases and how big they are. Maybe the difference is 5x. Maybe it's 10x. Maybe it's 20x. We don't know, and thus figuring out the real infection fatality rate is hard.

But left to rip through the bulk of [un-immune] America, to think that 2M is out of the question doesn't make sense. Do you have reason to believe that if the infection rates soar over the next 12-18 months without a vaccine, that 2M is an absurd number?

However, the rapid recovery has not been the experience of thousands - perhaps tens of thousands - of patients worldwide who’ve been classified as mild cases. Many struggle for months with lingering Covid-19 symptoms that can be debilitating. They exhibit shortness of breath, extreme fatigue, intermittent fevers, cough, concentration issues, chest pressure, headaches, and heart palpitations, among other symptoms. The literature has a name for them: “long-haulers.”

In the Netherlands, the Lung Foundation, together with the University of Maastricht and the CIRO group,* surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients who had reported a number of long-term effects from their illness. Ninety-one percent of the patients were not hospitalized, which indicates that the vast majority of the surveyed patients would fall under the category “mildly symptomatic.” The average age of the patients surveyed was 53.

Nearly 88% of patients reported persistent intense fatigue, while almost three out of four had continued shortness of breath. Other enduring symptoms included, among other things, chest pressure (45% of patients), headache and muscle ache (40% and 36%, respectively), elevated pulse (30%), and dizziness (29%). Perhaps the most startling finding was that 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves healthy prior to getting Covid-19. One or more months after getting the disease, only 6% consider themselves healthy.

This 5% rate may be true, but it is a false data point. Unless it has change in the last two weeks over 42% of deaths were associated with nursing homes (see Forbes article I posted then).


Overall the statistics show that it is a bad flu season except for this class of people. Isolate those class of people and put in proper controls there and this too will pass