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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3990 on: May 18, 2020, 09:28:10 AM »
Sundays have been the slowest day, traditionally, for both new cases and deaths reported. 

Yesterday was higher for both than the previous Sunday. Cases haven't been universally down on consecutive Sundays before this, but yesterday was the first time we've had more deaths on a Sunday than the previous Sunday since early April.

That may mean nothing--our 7-day moving average is still downward, and yesterday's total was also only the second day below 1K deaths since Mar 30. When the numbers are smaller, this might just be noise. But given many of the openings were around May 1, this is about the right time to be looking for inflection points in the curve.



Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3991 on: May 18, 2020, 09:35:00 AM »
Georgia was allowed to "reopen" (partially) April 23.  The numbers have continued to trend down, no disaster, yet.  BUT, the state did not really "reopen", some places did with distancing of course, but being allowed to reopen is not the same as reopening.

Around me, we might be a quarter open?  Every large venue remains closed, very bar, night club, etc., and most hotels are closed (no business anyway).  Most restaurants are take out only still, or closed.  The park was pretty full yesterday but folks are maintaining distance pretty well.

So, I didn't expect any surge in cases and there has not yet been one.

Cincydawg

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3993 on: May 18, 2020, 09:44:20 AM »
Here's an interactive dashboard where you can view several metrics by state.  I can't vouch for the sources or the veracity of the data but I don't have any reason to question it either, seems to line up for Texas at least.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys


CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3994 on: May 18, 2020, 10:09:59 AM »
China, as of a decade ago or so, has tried not to add US Debt. Their overall holding of US debt has diminished since 2010 and their PERCENTAGE of all US debt holdings has dropped roughly in half--because we've racked up more over that decade.
That's very comforting, bwarb!
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3995 on: May 18, 2020, 10:27:34 AM »
That's very comforting, bwarb!
Not really. I think their long-term goal is to have the yuan replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, hence they're trying to limit their exposure. It's extremely beneficial to the US that our dollar is the world's reserve currency, and losing that status would be a major problem for us. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3996 on: May 18, 2020, 10:48:45 AM »
Not really. I think their long-term goal is to have the yuan replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, hence they're trying to limit their exposure. It's extremely beneficial to the US that our dollar is the world's reserve currency, and losing that status would be a major problem for us.
I think they're going to have a tougher time now, pushing their agenda globally, than they would have before the world began calling them out for dubious behavior with respect to their notice and response on the novel coronavirus.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3997 on: May 18, 2020, 11:07:14 AM »
Not really. I think their long-term goal is to have the yuan replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, hence they're trying to limit their exposure. It's extremely beneficial to the US that our dollar is the world's reserve currency, and losing that status would be a major problem for us.
I wasn't really serious about it being comforting.  I think you are right about their long-term goal.  I think it goes beyond that.  They want to become the world hegemon.
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3998 on: May 18, 2020, 11:07:41 AM »
  • As of Sunday night, 1,486,757 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the United States (an increase of 18,961 from yesterday) and 89,562 deaths have been attributed to the virus (an increase of 808 from yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 6 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 11,499,203 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (422,024 conducted since yesterday), 12.9 percent have come back positive.



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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3999 on: May 18, 2020, 12:00:17 PM »
Just heard an AIS insurance radio commercial talking to a "customer" who had saved money from insurance and was talking about how he could spend it.

Dream vacation, VIP concert tickets, going to Disneyland...

Uhh, hey AIS, are you tone-deaf much? 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4000 on: May 18, 2020, 12:42:08 PM »
What does it mean being the world's reserve currency?

Why does that help us?


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4001 on: May 18, 2020, 12:52:05 PM »
What does it mean being the world's reserve currency?

Why does that help us?


Because we can print money.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4002 on: May 18, 2020, 12:58:01 PM »
Everyone prints money.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4003 on: May 18, 2020, 01:20:55 PM »
What does it mean being the world's reserve currency?

Why does that help us?
We're seen as a very stable currency, and T-Bills are seen as one of the safest investments in the entire world.

So when we buy imports from other countries, and we send money to foreign producers, those foreign producers can either buy American products or they can convert the currency into their local currency to buy local products. 

If they buy American products or services, great, we get exports and the money comes back. Of course, that increases demand for American products (raising prices) and returns the money back into our economy (raising inflation). But it also increases employment because we're producing/providing something.

If they exchange dollars for local currency, their own government will retain that money in a sovereign wealth fund and/or buy American debt. If they're retaining it as cash assets, basically it's the equivalent of them stuffing it under a mattress--it hides any inflationary pressures of that money existing. Essentially if they buy our debt, it reduces the interest rates we need to charge to sell debt (making our debt cheaper) allowing us to provide government services at a lower societal cost to us. 

And if the dollar is the world's reserve currency, it inextricably links other nations to our success. If they're holding our dollars or our debt, they don't want to see our economy fail. If we go hyperinflationary, their dollar reserves are worthless. If we have an issue and renege on our debt, their T-bills are worthless. So they win when we succeed.

That's why China wants to displace us as the world's reserve currency. It will tie other nations' economies to their success.  

 

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