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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15582 on: September 22, 2021, 01:32:19 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 22, 2021, 01:24:15 PM
Modelers Project A Calming Of The Pandemic In The U.S. This Winter : Shots - Health News : NPR


Interesting, but again, it's a model.

If the model is assuming a decline in the southern states, and an increase in the northern states, for a blended average of a slow decline, then I could see that as reasonable.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15583 on: September 22, 2021, 01:49:42 PM »
That isn't a model really, it's what is happening.  I don't understand the waves at all and have never read a compelling explanation for them.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15584 on: September 22, 2021, 02:17:24 PM »
It got hot here, and people were staying inside. The virus exploded. I think it's that simple.

Between the 70% vax rate and how many people had the virus (16%), I suspect we are close to having this thing covered here. Yeah, I know there is overlap, but still.

At least until the NE and MW folks start showing up with their Covid...
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15585 on: September 22, 2021, 02:21:35 PM »
The previous surge was in midwinter.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15586 on: September 22, 2021, 02:25:55 PM »
Right. Holidays, people coming down the NE and the MW, etc.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15587 on: September 22, 2021, 03:08:49 PM »
Vaccinations are slowly but consistently increasing. Nationally we're at over 55% fully vaccinated and another ~10% partial. 

Delta is running its course through a hell of a lot of unvaccinated [and some vaccinated] people developing natural immunity. 

The most vulnerable groups tend to have the highest vax rates, so it's going to be primarily the young and healthy driving the case numbers, which is why the deaths haven't spiked nearly as badly as they did prior to vax availability. 

I'm guessing that soon the 5-to-11 age group will get approved for the vax. 

Eventually this starts approaching herd immunity, and cases will wane REGARDLESS of behavior, of weather, etc. 

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15588 on: September 22, 2021, 03:14:45 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 03:08:49 PM
Vaccinations are slowly but consistently increasing. Nationally we're at over 55% fully vaccinated and another ~10% partial.

Delta is running its course through a hell of a lot of unvaccinated [and some vaccinated] people developing natural immunity.

The most vulnerable groups tend to have the highest vax rates, so it's going to be primarily the young and healthy driving the case numbers, which is why the deaths haven't spiked nearly as badly as they did prior to vax availability.

I'm guessing that soon the 5-to-11 age group will get approved for the vax.

Eventually this starts approaching herd immunity, and cases will wane REGARDLESS of behavior, of weather, etc.


Agree  but I'm not sure we'll see these effects kick in before what I anticipate to be another wave in Fall/Winter.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15589 on: September 22, 2021, 03:30:04 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on September 22, 2021, 03:14:45 PM
Agree  but I'm not sure we'll see these effects kick in before what I anticipate to be another wave in Fall/Winter.
The wave if it happens will be way less then the previous winter IMHO unless of course theres a third variant lurking ready to pounce on us
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GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15590 on: September 22, 2021, 03:37:04 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 03:08:49 PM
The most vulnerable groups tend to have the highest vax rates, so it's going to be primarily the young and healthy driving the case numbers, which is why the deaths haven't spiked nearly as badly as they did prior to vax availability.

I'm guessing that soon the 5-to-11 age group will get approved for the vax.


https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1440717238990897159?s=20
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15591 on: September 22, 2021, 03:58:43 PM »
Yup GR, that correlates to what we were seeing down here about 4 weeks ago.  We went back to school on 8/13.  Our cases were declining in late August, then popped back up to a plateau for the last week of August and the first couple weeks of September, driven by school-aged kids.

This is what we've seen in my kids' school district:


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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15592 on: September 22, 2021, 04:44:00 PM »
it looks like to me this surge peaked about a week ago 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15593 on: September 22, 2021, 04:45:21 PM »
@GopherRock Do you by any chance know what sort of requirements they have on kids in school? Are they masking?

It looks like MN is ahead of the national vax rates, so that should be good. But obviously kids under 12 can't be vaxxed, and I think many parents are more reticent to vaccinate their kids than even to vaccinate themselves from COVID, so I don't think the 12-17 demo is highly vaxxed yet. 

One big issue I've got with that tweet though is that it's talking about case GROWTH rates, not share of cases either total or share of the population in those demographics.

Generally COVID has been extraordinarily benign for kids prior to Delta. I think Delta has increased the rate of symptomatic illness in kids (as it has in all demographics), but the combination of low or zero (0-11 yo) vaccination rates among that demographic relative to older, and a low base level of infection with previous strains, will OF COURSE make the growth rate look huge. 

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more frequent emails from my kids' schools about cases that have occurred at their schools than I recall from the previous school year. So I'm not saying it's NOT growing... I just don't like the way that info was presented. It may look worse (or not as bad) as it is. 
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15594 on: September 22, 2021, 05:22:36 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 04:45:21 PM
@GopherRock Do you by any chance know what sort of requirements they have on kids in school? Are they masking?

It looks like MN is ahead of the national vax rates, so that should be good. But obviously kids under 12 can't be vaxxed, and I think many parents are more reticent to vaccinate their kids than even to vaccinate themselves from COVID, so I don't think the 12-17 demo is highly vaxxed yet.

One big issue I've got with that tweet though is that it's talking about case GROWTH rates, not share of cases either total or share of the population in those demographics.

Generally COVID has been extraordinarily benign for kids prior to Delta. I think Delta has increased the rate of symptomatic illness in kids (as it has in all demographics), but the combination of low or zero (0-11 yo) vaccination rates among that demographic relative to older, and a low base level of infection with previous strains, will OF COURSE make the growth rate look huge.

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more frequent emails from my kids' schools about cases that have occurred at their schools than I recall from the previous school year. So I'm not saying it's NOT growing... I just don't like the way that info was presented. It may look worse (or not as bad) as it is.
If you look at the graph I posted for my kids' school district, you can see the big spike starting in August of this year, but the graph goes all the way back to August 2020.  You can see that the previous largest spike, which coincides with the winter spike we saw across the entire country, is completely dwarfed by the new spike this schoolyear.

Delta is definitely affecting kids much more than did previous variants. 

Other variables are that this year, there's 100% in-person attendance, while last year ranged from about 40% early-on, to around 80% by the end of the schoolyear.

Masking is roughly the same.  Distancing certainly is not.
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GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15595 on: September 23, 2021, 11:19:28 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 22, 2021, 04:45:21 PM
@GopherRock Do you by any chance know what sort of requirements they have on kids in school? Are they masking?

It looks like MN is ahead of the national vax rates, so that should be good. But obviously kids under 12 can't be vaxxed, and I think many parents are more reticent to vaccinate their kids than even to vaccinate themselves from COVID, so I don't think the 12-17 demo is highly vaxxed yet.

One big issue I've got with that tweet though is that it's talking about case GROWTH rates, not share of cases either total or share of the population in those demographics.

Generally COVID has been extraordinarily benign for kids prior to Delta. I think Delta has increased the rate of symptomatic illness in kids (as it has in all demographics), but the combination of low or zero (0-11 yo) vaccination rates among that demographic relative to older, and a low base level of infection with previous strains, will OF COURSE make the growth rate look huge.

Anecdotally, I'm seeing more frequent emails from my kids' schools about cases that have occurred at their schools than I recall from the previous school year. So I'm not saying it's NOT growing... I just don't like the way that info was presented. It may look worse (or not as bad) as it is.
Depends on the districts. Almost all of the big districts in Minnesota (including big ones outstate) are requiring everyone in the buildings to wear masks. Based on what I'm seeing in photos, enforcement of the policy leaves a lot to be desired.

Kind of surprised that the MSHSL didn't tie proof of COVID vaccination into the participation rules for HS activities, given that 12-yos were eligible some time ago.
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