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I blame high school fall sports

not...  Football "the game" isn't a super spreader event

maybe practice and meeting rooms for one team

I couldn't offer any reason our case counts would peak and drop short of a vaccine or lock down.  I don't know why we had the ebb in Aub/Sept really either.

The new strain idea is plausible though.

Only reason I can think of is that the 2nd wave scared everyone, and caused them to modify their behavior. Obviously I have no real evidence for that than just my gut feelings, but I got the sense that people hoped we were through it after Mar/Apr, and then realized with the 2nd wave that it was coming back hard. 

Just from a "public opinion" point of view, it doesn't seem that the 3rd wave is scaring anyone into modifying their behavior. My gut feeling from people I interact with is that they're just going to chance it. 

New strain might be a possibility, but I don't know if that Spanish strain hitting Europe has made it over here?

could school openings and football both pro and college have anything to do with it

plus catching it from Europe maybe

I don't think K-12 school openings have necessarily caused much. Obviously it's hitting colleges as living-on-campus student behavior is a lot harder to regulate than K-12. 

So far it seems that the crowds at football games are limited and pretty observant of social distancing. My worry was that college football crowds would all be jammed into the "good seats" by the second half of games, but so far it seems they've policed that pretty well. 

My belief is just that collectively we as a society are not particularly vigilant any more. We've grown tired of it, and are just throwing up our hands and saying "I'm going to do X and what happens, happens."

seems to me that washing your hands didn't help much

seems to me that wearing masks doesn't help enough

seems to me that the only thing that works is social distancing and more importantly, just staying home!  Don't go out and about!

obviously, more and more folks are not willing to stay locked up in a safe place.  They are going out and mingling in small or larger groups.

seems to me that washing your hands didn't help much

seems to me that wearing masks doesn't help enough

seems to me that the only thing that works is social distancing and more importantly, just staying home!  Don't go out and about!

obviously, more and more folks are not willing to stay locked up in a safe place.  They are going out and mingling in small or larger groups.

I think masks work quite well. 

This study by Vanderbilt compares hospitalizations in Tennessee based on whether their hospitalized cases from from counties with or without mask mandates, and hospitalizations rose much faster in areas w/o mask mandates than areas with. 

Interesting other portion of that study... They looked at whether patronage of bars & restaurants tracked government restrictions or case numbers more closely. 

I.e. if cases are increasing but government doesn't lock down, some may think that bars & restaurants would still see the same level of business. Others [like me] suggest that spikes in cases will cause some people to change their behavior even in the absence of government lockdowns. They found the latter--even without increased local government restrictions, patronage of bars & restaurants went down significantly when cases were rising, i.e. during the Jul/Aug spike and happened again into the Oct spike. 

If rising cases and publicity impact say a third of the population to avoid going out, it would show up.

The key with masks is not that a mask guarantees your safety; they're not magic. But if enough people are masked, it reduces R0 so that even if individuals are only a little bit safer, society in all does a better job reducing the spread.

And as I've been saying, the other aspect of masks is if you're only wearing a mask during "commerce" situations, but you're regularly spending lots of time unmasked with people not in your own household [especially indoors], then you can't really claim you're diligent about masks. (Which, as I've mentioned, I am guilty of.)

Agree for the most part, but my paranthetical comment would be (pretty much exclusively indoors). 

495,690 tests in Florida, week of 10/25. 28,335 positive. 5.7%.

I'd like to see that get under 5%.