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The next major shift is death. How long do you think?

I give it 5-6 years.

Ya they could never get enough coverage or coin.These idiots will not get a true Champion,they'll get the team who had the least amount of Sunday bound kids that sat.It also sort of punishes the Student athletes by keeping them away from their actual focus,wonder how many of the non schollies will just say screw it and drop football.Ya 5-6 yrs then maybe reform

The next major shift is death. How long do you think?

I give it 5-6 years.

This currently has my vote.

LSU already can't compete in the portal with schools with richer NIL-sources.  If that continues, and I'm not sure at the moment why it wouldn't, LSU is an example of a "have" that's about to go to a "have not."  Sure, they'd be brought into whatever new superconference gives the finger to the NCAA, but then what?  They aren't going to thrive there.  

Just a matter of how long it takes the fans to catch on to what's happening.  There are many, many, many lifelong, hardcore LSU fans who believe that things are going to turn around eventually because they always have, and they may live out the rest of their lives and die without realizing an entire paradigm-shift occurred.  For others like me, it hasn't even really happened yet, and my interest is already waning.  

It could keep going--artificially, in a sense--for as long as the majority of a fanbase doesn't catch on.  Using us as an example again, LSU could technically become useless, but we still benefit teams like Texas and Alabama to play for as long as we have rabid fans.  The economics could keep viability longer than seems warranted, even as the actual product on the field may be shot to hell.  

Of course they need wins.

Even as the schedule gets tougher, people's expectations don't go down. And as much as this sport is a churning cauldron of unrealistic people, it's not measured in championships or playoff spots. It's measured in wins. 10-2 and 8-4s and such. And when you break off fully, a bunch of 8-4 teams become 2-10 teams. And that would be a real problem for them. It's gonna be a problem when they become 7-5/6-6. (The NFL gets around this by having the consolation of the draft. CFB's only consolation is a new HC)

And that's the way it is. Even as the sport is nationalized, the majority of folks are mostly focused on their team. And most fanbases are not dwelling in this particular strain of nihilism and you seem to be so enchanted by at the moment.

It's not measured in championships or playoff spots? 

Tell that to the FSU, Georgia, and OSU fan bases. 

As for my particular strain of nihilism, it seems to be catching around here... 

I get some Georgia Tech comments on FB from time to time, just saw one proudly noting they have sold out their bowl ticket allotment.  They are 6-6, going to the Gasparillo Bowl somewhere, and it's great they sold out.  They mostly seem quite proud of this team.  I wouldn't deprive them of that feeling.

It's not measured in championships or playoff spots?

Tell that to the FSU, Georgia, and OSU fan bases.

As for my particular strain of nihilism, it seems to be catching around here...

FSU has been bad for a minute. If they’d gone 11-1 this year and missed the playoff. Wouldn’t have rioted. UGA and OSU, that’s nice for them. They are not the bulk of this enterprise. (Oddly, credit UGA for not being near as pissy over it as I expected)

I mean, this sport isn’t built on our mostly erudite form of message boarding. It is built on a kind of complaining, but not the kind disciplined enough bathe in despondence and then aggressively opt out. It’s built on a blend of the deranged and the casual.

I meant to reply to an earlier post, but might as well do it here. Folks love to talk about all the oxygen being sucked up, by this that or the other. And I just live all that by the state motto of SC. “While I breathe, I hope.” In balance, I don’t care where someone else’s oxygen goes. I can enjoy the Egg Bowl and Army-Navy and Arkansas and Tennessee running wildly different versions of the same offense. If someone else doesn’t, won’t effect me.

(is this influenced by coming of age during BCS chases and realizing the difference in making a game an hour later in Orlando instead of Tampa was not bringing me much joy? Yes, yes it is.)

FSU has been bad for a minute. If they’d gone 11-1 this year and missed the playoff. Wouldn’t have rioted. UGA and OSU, that’s nice for them. They are not the bulk of this enterprise. (Oddly, credit UGA for not being near as pissy over it as I expected)

I mean, this sport isn’t built on our mostly erudite form of message boarding. It is built on a kind of complaining, but not the kind disciplined enough bathe in despondence and then aggressively opt out. It’s built on a blend of the deranged and the casual.

I meant to reply to an earlier post, but might as well do it here. Folks love to talk about all the oxygen being sucked up, by this that or the other. And I just live all that by the state motto of SC. “While I breathe, I hope.” In balance, I don’t care where someone else’s oxygen goes. I can enjoy the Egg Bowl and Army-Navy and Arkansas and Tennessee running wildly different versions of the same offense. If someone else doesn’t, won’t effect me.

(is this influenced by coming of age during BCS chases and realizing the difference in making a game an hour later in Orlando instead of Tampa was not bringing me much joy? Yes, yes it is.)

I should point out that part of that post was about today, and part of it (that I didn't really mention) was about what's happening going forward.

Today, those are three fan bases that are "left out." UGA and OSU in particular feeling like their seasons weren't all that successful because they measure success by making the playoffs. FSU is a special case because you can't call their season anything but a success--yet they're still left out. 

But go forward a year and we have a 12-team playoff. Now FSU/UGA/OSU all get in. Now for them to miss the playoff it has to probably be a 3-loss season. Making the playoff is more accessible and becomes more important to fans of those programs as a whole. 

You said the sport isn't about championships and playoffs. I'd argue that the 4-team CFP got us closer to being all about championships and playoffs, as evidenced by the disappointment of teams like UGA/OSU. But a 12-team CFP will move it to the only measure of success for the bigger teams being "did I make the playoffs?", and every year you don't, it's not just a disappointment, it's a failed season. The sport will now only be about the CFP.